Landscape dynamics on insular environments of southeast Mediterranean Europe

Abstract

Mediterranean islands are characterized by high biodiversity and cultural value. As the human demand for natural resources increases, the need for assessing the future landscape is prerequisite. This study aimed to simulate the future landscape composition and structure of the Ionian Islands (Western Greece). To do so, we integrated the Future Land Use Model and Markov Chain analysis, taking into consideration fifteen socio-environmental predictors. The results showed that the landscape of the Ionian Islands is expected to develop into two major patterns. The first pattern refers to the expected increase of forests and scrublands, shaping a homogenous landscape. Whereas, the second pattern reveals an expected degradation of natural vegetation, shaping a highly fragmented landscape. In all circumstances, the built-up areas are anticipated to extend, mainly near to touristic hot-spots. This study demonstrated that contemporary spatial simulation approaches, along with various socio-environmental factors offer an important tool for effective landscape management.

Keywords:

• Land cover/use changes
• FLUS
• cellular automata
• Markov Chain
• Ionian Islands
• Mediterranean Islands

Acknowledgement

We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their important and insightful comments and suggestions which helped improve the manuscript.

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official views of the European Commission (Eurostat).

Disclosure statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Additional information

Funding

The research work was supported by the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (HFRI) and the General Secretariat for Research and Technology (GSRT), under the HFRI PhD Fellowship grant (GA. No. 62).