Abstract
The discussion starts by making the point that history is not a reliable guide to the future of Northeast Asia. The unique geo-strategic and military balance circumstances of East Asia during the first half of the 20th century are not in evidence today. The current environment is so fundamentally different than 75 years ago that historically based arguments used to buttress or fashion strategic options and power relations are largely irrelevant.
Today the region is militarily stable because of a de facto condominium of power that exists between the United States and China. Each country has in effect a geographic sphere of military influence. China's sphere is the continent of Asia. The United States preserves its military sphere of influence through an alliance system on the rimland of Asia, and forward deployed forces.
Any attempt by either China or the United States to undermine this essentially stable status quo is fraught with danger as it could unhinge the stability that has been so essential to the economic development of Asia. Reconciling these different views will be essential if the US and China are to sustain a long-term normal relationship.
The concept of regional stability as spoken and written about today is at once general in conception and vague in scope. Once the need to deter conflict in Korea is no longer a requirement it will be the job of American military planners to translate the conception into more precise terms that recognize the realities of power and geography in East Asia. Whether that will include US forces in Korea depends upon how the process of peace and eventually reunification unfolds.