Abstract
The June summit opens up tantalizing possibilities for the reductions of tensions on the Korean peninsula. If the inter-Korean warming process overcomes the current impasse and matures in the years ahead, real and lasting improvements leading to reform and transparency in the North may result—a very big “if” that remains to be seen. The outcome will critically depend on what is in Chairman Kim Jong-il's mind, and how well President Kim Dae-jung and his North Korea policy architects have read the situation. The risks that the Seoul government assumes as it seeks to engage the North are self-evident, both in terms of the domestic political context and in terms of the strategic gamble Seoul is making. It remains to be seen if the zero-sum game with the North can be transformed into a positive-sum process.
The next steps in engaging the North will be far more difficult. Pyongyang must recognize that the time for delaying tactics is over, as sympathy is running dry in the South. If the regime continues to prevaricate on negotiating core issues it will lose the window of opportunity to bring about peaceful change on the peninsula and diminish its own chances to survive. Improvements thus far are to do with symbolism and atmospherics, too easily reversible. Next towards a less tension-ridden Korea is for the North to make clear it is firmly on the path to internal reforms and conformity to international norms. The policy objective for Seoul is to secure Pyongyang's cooperation, and to garner continued domestic as well as international support.