FORECASTING ANALYSIS BY FUZZY GREY MODEL GM(1,1)

ABSTRACT

The grey model GM(1,1) has been successfully applied in management and engineering problems with as little as four data. Because of lack of sufficient data, a decision maker obtained too little information from the extrapolative value to make an ineffective decision in grey model GM(1,1). A considerable amount of research has shown that fuzzy forecasting tools such as fuzzy regression and fuzzy time series are powerful forecasting models under an uncertain environment. Therefore, by crisp-input value to obtain AGO value, we propose fuzzy grey model GM(1,1) by mapping AGO value with the fuzzy parameter to forecast fuzzy-output extrapolative value under uncertain and limited data. By the crisp-input and fuzzy-output fuzzy grey model GM(1,1)model, a decision making can obtain more information from the obtained possible forecasting interval and so reduce the possible loss in decision making under uncertainty with limited data. Finally, an example is given for illustration.

Keywords:

• forecasting
• grey model GM(1,1)
• fuzzy set
• fuzzy grey model GM(1,1)
• limited data