保證策略之風險分析一不可維修產品的比較硏究

摘要

一般在產品保證策略方面的研究大都局限於分析不同策略之期望保證成本。以提供決策者制訂保證策略之參考’然而因產品濤命的不確定性（隨機性），具有相同期望保證成本的保證策略亦有不同之保證風險（保證成本之樊異數），低期望保證成本之保證策略固然可增加利潤，但同時也可能降低市場競爭力，而髙風險的保證策略更可能使企業陷 於資金週轉上的困境，因此，如何維持一定的市場競爭力並減少風險使成爲制訂保證策略之重要課題。本研究將針對不可維修產品，同時比較兩種最常採用的保證策略-退費策略及置換策略之保證成本和風險。並進一步分析採用不同保證策略之條件，在降低風險的前提下，提供決策者制訂保證策略之準則。

Abstract

In this study, the risk analysis of two commonly used warranty policies for nonrepairable products, free refund policy and free replacement policy, are conducted. Under the free refund policy, a product that fails within a warranty period is fully refunded with the price of the product. For the free replacement policy, a failed product is replaced with a new product at no charge. The first objective of this study is to find a relationship between the warranty periods of these two policies such that the expected warranty costs are equal. Given that the expected warranty costs of the two policies are the same, the policy with lower risk (variance) would then be selected over the other. Hence, the second objective is to find the conditions that yield a lower risk warranty policy. These conditions could provide decision makers with a rule for establishing a low-risk warranty policy.

關鍵詞:

• 保證策略
• 風險分析
• 退費策略
• 置換策略

Key Words:

• warranty policy
• risk analysis
• free refund policy
• free replacement policy