378
Views
2
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Articles

Structural improvements in Sub-Saharan economies

 

Abstract

The debate on current economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) contains two opposing poles: One position claims that African countries are on their way to catching up with richer parts of the world. The other argues that no structural changes have occurred, and that continued dependency on commodity exports will push African economies further into poverty traps, while economic enclave sectors blossom. This article surveys challenges in promoting inclusive growth and creating employment, and goes on to assess how countries' economic vulnerability has developed, as measured by the economic vulnerability index used by the United Nations for classification of ‘least developed country’ status. Improvements are found for several African countries as well as for SSA on average, despite simultaneous increases in the average export concentration. This broader measure shows structural conditions for economic growth to have improved for SSA on average and for many of its countries.

Notes on contributor and acknowledgements

Mats Hårsmar is senior researcher and leader for the research cluster ‘African International Links’ at the Nordic Africa Institute in Uppsala, Sweden. He has formerly served as chief analyst for development policies at the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs.The author wishes to thank colleagues at the Nordic Africa Institute, especially Kjell J. Havnevik for valuable comments on earlier versions. The responsibility for the final text rests with the author.

Notes

1. Devarajan S & W Fengler, ‘Is Africa's recent economic growth sustainable?’, Note de l'Ifri, October 2012, Paris/Brussels.

2. Sindzingre A, ‘The ambivalent impact of commodities: Structural change or status quo in Sub-Saharan Africa?’, South African Journal of International Affairs, 20, 1, 2013, pp. 23–55; Akyüs Y, ‘The staggering rise of the South’, South Centre Research Paper 44, Geneva, 2012.

3. UNECA, Making the Most of Africa's Commodities: Industrializing for Growth, Jobs and Economic Transformation. Economic Report on Africa 2013. Addis Ababa/New York: UNECA/UNDP, 2013, p. 58.

4. UNDP, Assessing Progress in Africa Toward the Millennium Development Goals. The MDG Report 2012. New York: UNDP, 2012.

5. Fosu AK, ‘Growth, inequality and poverty reduction in developing countries; Recent global evidence’, Working paper 2011/01, UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, 2011. The technical term measuring how effectively growth reduces poverty is ‘poverty elasticity’. Fosu shows that approximately the double rate of growth is necessary to reach poverty reductions in Africa compared with Asia or Latin America.

6. Ndereyahaga R, University of Burundi, Bujumbura, personal communication, 2013.

7. However, there are also potential risks with rapidly increasing populations, especially if not put to productive work. Refer for instance Oestigaard T, ‘Water scarcity and food security along the Nile – Politics, population increase and climate change’, Current African Issues, 49, 2012.

8. Holmqvist G, ‘Fertility impact of high-coverage public pensions in sub-Saharan Africa’, Global Social Policy, 11, 2–3, 2011, pp. 152–173, especially p. 168.

9. UN Population Statistics, 2011.

10. Recent initiatives indicate that the debate on African strutural transformation and development is nowadays more focused on domestic factors, governance and policies than during previous periods. Perceptions of challenges and opportunities focus on how African countries and economies may position themselves towards the outside rather than how international rules and structures may be changed. See for instance the Tswalu Dialogue hosted by the Brenthurst Foundation, 2011. Report available at: http://www.thebrenthurstfoundation.org/Files/Brenthurst_Commisioned_Reports/Brenthurst-paper-201109.pdf (accessed 12 March 2014).

11. UNECA, Making the Most of Africa's Commodities: Industrializing for Growth, Jobs and Economic Transformation. Economic Report on Africa 2013. Addis Ababa/New York: UNECA/UNDP, 2013, p. 27.

12. Jerven M, Poor Numbers – How We are Misled by African Development Statistics and What to Do About it. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2013.

13. A wider critique concerns the use of the GDP measure as such. GDP is increasingly seen as an irrelevant measure of human welfare. See for instance Fioramonti L, Gross Domestic Problem – The Politics Behind the World's Most Powerful Number. London: Zed Books, 2013; or Nussbaum M, Creating Capabilities. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2011.

14. UNCTAD (2012): World Investment Report 2012. Towards a New Generation of Investment Policies. Geneva: UNCTAD.

15. UNECA, Making the Most of Africa's Commodities: Industrializing for Growth, Jobs and Economic Transformation, Economic Report on Africa 2013. Addis Ababa/New York: UNECA/UNDP, 2013.

16. UNECA, Making the Most of Africa's Commodities: Industrializing for Growth, Jobs and Economic Transformation, Economic Report on Africa 2013. Addis Ababa/New York: UNECA/UNDP, 2013, p. 78. The higher the figure, the fewer products are exported.

17. Sindzingre A, ‘The ambivalent impact of commodities: Structural change or status quo in Sub-Saharan Africa?’, South African Journal of International Affairs, 20, 1, 2013, pp. 23–55.

18. Sindzingre A, Akyüs Y, ‘The staggering rise of the South’, South Centre Research Paper 44. Geneva, 2012. See also Castaldi C, M Cimoli, N Correa & G Dosi, ‘Technological learning, policy regimes and growth: The long-term patterns and some specificities of the “globalized” economy’, in Cimoli M, G Dosi & JE Stiglitz (eds), Industrial Policy and Development. The Political Economy of Capabilities Accumulation. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009; and Cimoli M, G Dosi & JE Stiglitz (eds) Industrial Policy and Development. The Political Economy of Capabilities Accumulation. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009, for more general discussions on conditions for structural transformations of economies under international interdependencies.

19. This is illustrated by transformations taking place in the Nordic countries during the decades following the Second World War, see for instance Gylfason T, ‘Natural resources and economic growth: A Nordic perspective on the Dutch disease’, UNU Wider Working Paper, no. 167, Helsinki, 1999. See also Findlay R & M Lundahl, ‘ Resource-led growth – A long-term perspective. The relevance of the 1870–1914 experience for today's developing economies’, UNU-Wider Working Papers, no. 162, Helsinki, 1999, for a wider group of countries.

20. Important contributions on this issue come for instance from Easterly W, J Ritzan & M Woolcock, ‘Social cohesion, institutions and growth’, CGD Working Paper no. 94, Washington, DC, 2006; Wade R, ‘After the crisis: Industrial policy and the developmental state in low-income countries’, Global Policy, 1, 2, 2010, pp. 150–161; Cimoli M, G Dosi & JE Stiglitz (eds), Industrial Policy and Development – The Political Economy of Capabilities Accumulation. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009; Rothstein B, The Quality of Government – Corruption, Social Trust and Inequality in International Perspective. Chicago, IL: Chicago University Press, 2009; or Kattel R JA Kregel & ES Reinert, ‘The relevance of Ragnar Nurkse and classical development economics’, in Kattel R, JA Kregel & ES Reinert (eds), Ragnar Nurkse (1907–2007). London: Anthem Press, 2009.

21. One kind of summary is provided in Booth D, ‘Governance for development in Africa: Building on what works’, Policy Brief 1. London: Africa Power and Politics Programme, Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

22. UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2012. Towards a New Generation of Investment Policies. Geneva: UNCTAD, 2012.

23. UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2012. Towards a New Generation of Investment Policies. Geneva: UNCTAD, 2012.

24. Countries that received FDI worth between $100 and 400 million were Zimbabwe, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Senegal, Mauritius, Ethiopia, Mali, Seychelles, Benin, Central African Republic, Rwanda, Somalia, Liberia, Morocco and Libya; countries that received FDI worth under $100 million were Swaziland, Cape Verde, Djibouti, Malawi, Togo, Lesotho, Sierra Leone, Mauritania, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Eritrea, São Tomé and Principe, Burkina Faso, Comoros, Burundi, Egypt and Angola.

25. UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2012. Towards a New Generation of Investment Policies. Geneva: UNCTAD, 2012, p. 39 f.

26. Poverty numbers are contested. Sala-i-Martin and Pinkovskiy argue that poverty (below US$1/day) dropped to 32% in 2006 (Sala-i-Martin X & M Pinkovskiy, African Poverty is Falling…Much Faster than you Think!“, Working Paper 15775, National Bureau of Economic Research, February 2010, http://www.nber.org/papers/w15775.pdf?new_window=1 (accessed 12 March 2014)). However, their calculations have met methodological criticism. A more realistic figure is 48% surviving on less than $1.25/day in 2008 (UN, MDG Report 2012).

27. McKinsey Global Institute, Africa at Work: Job Creation and Inclusive Growth. Seuol/San Francisco/London/Washington, DC, 2012; Jobs, Justice, Equity: Seizing Opportunities in times of global change, Africa Progress Panel Report, 2012, http://africaprogresspanel.org/publications/policy-papers/africa-progress-report-2012/ (accessed 12 March 2014); UNECA (2013): Making the Most of Africa's Commodities: Industrializing for Growth, Jobs and Economic Transformation, Economic Report on Africa 2013. Addis Ababa/New York: UNECA / UNDP; World Bank, Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC, 2014, in press.

28. McKinsey Global Institute, Africa at Work: Job Creation and Inclusive Growth. Seuol/San Francisco/London/Washington, DC, 2012.

29. McKinsey Global Institute, Africa at Work: Job Creation and Inclusive Growth. Seuol/San Francisco/London/Washington, DC, 2012.

30. McKinsey Global Institute, Africa at Work: Job Creation and Inclusive Growth. Seuol/San Francisco/London/Washington, DC, 2012, p. 4, footnotes.

31. World Bank, Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC, 2014, in press.

32. Nelson F, E Sulle & E Lekaita, ‘Land grabbing and political transformation in Tanzania’, in Global Land Grabbing II Conference. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University, 2012.

33. UNECA, Making the Most of Africa's Commodities: Industrializing for Growth, Jobs and Economic Transformation. Economic Report on Africa 2013. Addis Ababa/New York: UNECA/UNDP, 2013.

34. Hazell P, ‘The role of agriculture in pro-poor growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’ in Hårsmar M (ed.), Agricultural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Stockholm: EGDI, Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, 2006.

35. Magnusson U, A Andersson-Djurfeldt, T Håkansson, M Hårsmar, J Mac-Dermott, G Nyberg, M Stenström, K Vrede, E Wredle & J Bengtsson, ‘A contribution to the discussion on critical research issues for future sub-Saharan African agriculture’. Future Agriculture, Uppsala:Swedish Agricultural University, 2012.

36. Hårsmar M, ‘Why is agriculture so important to reducing poverty?’, Policy Notes 2010/7, Uppsala: Nordic Africa Institute, 2010.

37. Filmer, D & L Fox, with K Brooks, A Goyal, T Mengistae, P Premand, D Ringold, S Shama & S Zorya, Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank/Agance Francaise de Dévellopement.

38. See for instance Hårsmar M (ed.), Agricultural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa. EGDI, Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Stockholm, 2006, for an overview. Specific discussions on technology adoption and innovation may also be found in Hårsmar M, ‘Relations key to innovation – Peasants, institutions and technical change on the Mossi Plateau in Burkina Faso’, African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development, 5, 1, 2013, pp. 5–18.

39. Teppo A, senior researcher, The Nordic Africa Institute, Uppsala, Sweden, personal communication, 2013.

40. Moore M, ‘Revenue reform and statebuilding in Anglophone Africa’, ICTD Working Paper 10, IDS, Sussex, 2013.

41. Lundstol O, G Raballand & F Nyirongo, ‘Low government revenue from the mining sector in Zambia and Tanzania: Fiscal design, technical capacity or political will?’, ICTD Working Paper 9, IDS, Sussex, 2013.

42. Yikona S, B Slot, M Geller, B Hansen & F el Kadiri, Ill-gotten Money and the Economy — Experiences from Malawi and Namibia. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2011.

43. Transparency International, Corruption Perception Index, 2013, http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2012/results/#myAnchor1 (accessed 13 June 2008).

44. Mitsubishi Corporation, ‘Sustainability Report, Special Feature’, 2006, http://www.mitsubishicorp.com/jp/en/csr/library/pdf/06sr-07.pdf (accessed 13 June 2008).

45. The categories are Forerunners – Namibia (gemstones, uranium), the Seychelles, Tunisia, Egypt; Acheivers – Republic of South Africa, Libya, Mauritius, Swaziland; Catching-up – Sudan, Angola, Mozambique, Uganda; Falling-behind – Kenya, Senegal, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Zimbabwe; and Infant stage – Rwanda, DRC, Burundi, Mali, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea, among others.

46. UNCTAD/UNIDO, Economic Development in Africa – Fostering Industrial Development in Africa in the New Global Environment. Geneva: UNCTAD and UNIDO, 2011.

47. UNCTAD/UNIDO, Economic Development in Africa – Fostering Industrial Development in Africa in the New Global Environment. Geneva: UNCTAD and UNIDO, 2011, pp. 15ff., 21.

48. Gelb A, C Meyer & V Ramachandran, ‘Does poor mean cheap? Comparative look at Africa's industrial labor costs’, Working Paper 325, Center for Global Development, Washington, DC, 2013.

49. Söderbom M & F Teal, ‘Size and efficiency in African manufacturing firms: Evidence from firm-level panel data’, Journal of Development Economics, 73, 1, 2004, pp. 369–394.

50. UNECA, Making the Most of Africa's Commodities: Industrializing for Growth, Jobs and Economic Transformation, Economic Report on Africa 2013. Addis Ababa/New York: UNECA/UNDP, 2013, p. 7.

51. Matambalya, FAST, African Industrial Development and European Union Co-operation – Reflections for a reenginered partnership. London: Routledge, 2014, in press.

52. UNCTAD/UNIDO, 2011: Economic Development in Africa – Fostering Industrial Development in Africa in the New Global Environment. Geneva: UNCTAD and UNIDO.

53. UNECA, Making the Most of Africa's Commodities: Industrializing for Growth, Jobs and Economic Transformation, Economic Report on Africa 2013. Addis Ababa/New York: UNECA/UNDP, 2013, p. 106ff.

54. UNECA, Gelb A, C Meyer & V Ramachandran, ‘Does poor mean cheap? Comparative look at Africa's industrial labor costs’, Working Paper 325, Center for Global Development, Washington, DC, 2013.

55. UNECA, Making the Most of Africa's Commodities: Industrializing for Growth, Jobs and Economic Transformation, Economic Report on Africa 2013. Addis Ababa/New York: UNECA/UNDP, 2013, p. 88.

56. Gereffi G, J Humphrey & T Sturgeon, ‘The governance of global value chains’, Review of International Political Economy, 12, 1, 2005, pp. 78–104.

57. UNECA, Making the Most of Africa's Commodities: Industrializing for Growth, Jobs and Economic Transformation, Economic Report on Africa 2013. Addis Ababa/New York: UNECA/UNDP, 2013, p. 111.

58. Aker JC & M Mbiti, ‘Mobile phones and economic development in Africa’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24, 3, 2010, pp. 207–232.

59. Nyamekye K & NT Array, Ethiopian Commodity Exchange As a Model for Pan-African Commodity Exchange and other Emerging Economies. Uppsala and Saarbrücken: Nordic Africa Institute and LAP Lambert Academic Publishing, 2012.

60. Christiaensen L, L Demery & J Kuhl, ‘The (evolving) role of agriculture in poverty reduction – An empirical perspective’, Working Paper no. 2010/36, UNU-Wider, Helsinki, 2010.

61. Sindzingre A, ‘The ambivalent impact of commodities: Structural change or status quo in Sub-Saharan Africa?’, South African Journal of International Affairs, 20, 1, 2013, pp. 23–55.

62. Rodrik D, ‘Comments at the conference on “Macro Growth Policies in the Wake of the Crisis”’, paper presented at IMF conference ‘Macro Growth Policies in the Wake of the Crisis’, Washington, DC, 18 March 2011.

63. Sindzingre A, ‘The ambivalent impact of commodities: Structural change or status quo in Sub-Saharan Africa?’, South African Journal of International Affairs, 20, 1, 2013, pp. 23–55, p. 26.

64. UNECA/AU, Economic Report on Africa 2013 – Making the Most of Africa's Commodities, Addis Ababa, 2013.

65. Guillaumont P, Caught in a Trap – Identifying the Least Developed Countries. Paris: Economica, 2009, p. 175.

66. Guillaumont P, Caught in a Trap – Identifying the Least Developed Countries. Paris: Economica, 2009, p. 175.

67. Guillaumont P, Caught in a Trap – Identifying the Least Developed Countries. Paris: Economica, 2009, p. 175.

68. Guillaumont P, Caught in a Trap – Identifying the Least Developed Countries. Paris: Economica, 2009, p. 180.

69. AfDB, OECD, UNDP & UNECA, African Economic Outlook – Structural Transformation and Natural Resources. Tunis/Addis Ababa/New York/Paris, 2013.

70. UN, 2013: Statistics on LDC, http://esango.un.org/sp/ldc_data/web/StatPlanet.html (accessed 6 August 2013).

71. The beta coefficient takes on the value 0.34 and is significant at the 99% level. The correlation is also obvious from the fact that export concentration is included in the EVI index with 1/16 weight.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.