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Abstract
Is there a preferred way forward for South African foreign policy in the context of the contemporary state of global order? Can such a path be taken in what is evidently a fluid global order context? If power alone does not determine leadership in this revised global order, especially in the context of middle, secondary or emerging powers, is a diplomatic path to South African leadership at some level possible? Does South African politics today and in the near future permit such a path? In addressing these questions, the article provides analysis at the global level, setting out the changed and further changing global order. It then delves into the role of middle or emerging and secondary powers focusing on the G20, as well as considering South Africa as a member of the G20 and the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), its role on the African continent, and finally, the possibility and promise of South Africa bearing ‘multiple identities’ in its foreign policy strategy going forward.
Acknowledgements
I wish to express my thanks to those who had such a great deal to do with establishing and making possible the workshop, ‘Alliances Beyond the BRICS: South Africa’s Role in Global Economic Governance’, where the papers in this issue where first presented and discussed. It was at the workshop that I was able to develop the ideas for this paper. Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, the Chief Executive of the South African Institute of International Affairs and then Maxi Schoeman Professor and Head of the Department of Political Sciences at the University of Pretoria, were both instrumental in shaping this workshop. Heather Thuynsma provided concerted administrative effort to assist all who came from near and far for the workshop. This workshop was supported by both the UK Department for International Development and the Deutsche Gesellschaft fur International Zusammenarbeit and in Pretoria by the South African Institute of International Affairs and the University of Pretoria’s Global Economic Governance Africa Project.
Notes on contributor
Alan S Alexandroff is the Director of the Global Summitry Project at the Munk School of Global Affairs, University of Toronto, and a research associate of the University of Pretoria.
Notes
1. This article had its origin with the workshop. The workshop was held at the University of Pretoria in the waning days of 2014. A number of South African specialists were brought together for this planned workshop. Additionally, external specialists joined our South African experts and brought views, and papers on Australia, Canada, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey and Nigeria. For good measure the workshop included a few global governance types, myself included. It was hoped that our South African experts could clarify how South African specialists understood South Africa’s place in the global order. The outside experts were encouraged to examine how they saw their own country’s global governance placement. Each had an explanation of how their country had secured a degree of presence and influence in contemporary international governance. I was then asked by the organisers to try to provide a synthesis of the research presented at the workshop.
2. This quote is taken from the ‘Background’ prepared by the Workshop hosts.
3. In generating the synthesis, I have relied on the many experts that participated in the workshop at Pretoria. I thank them all for their valuable insights: Mzukisi Qobo and Memory Dube, Charles Obi, Andrew Cooper, Hernán F. Gómez Bruera, Mark Beeson, Maria Monica Wihardja and Mehmet Arda.
4. Obi C, ‘Repositioning South Africa in global economic governance: A perspective from Nigeria’, South African Journal of International Affairs, 22.2, 2015 (this special issue).
5. Obi C, ‘Repositioning South Africa in global economic governance: A perspective from Nigeria’, South African Journal of International Affairs, 22.2, 2015 (this special issue).
6. Haass R, ‘The unraveling: How to respond to a disordered world’, Foreign Affairs, November/December, 2014, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142202/richard-n-haass/the-unraveling
7. Stephens P, ‘Why the business of risk is booming’, Financial Times, 12 March 2015, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cde4a248-c8ae-11e4-b43b-00144feab7de.html#axzz3UCSMZS4H
8. For quite some time, going back at least to 2006 (‘Order and disorder’, New York Times, 21 July 2006) http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/21/opinion/21friedman.html?_r=2&, the well-known New York Times columnist Tom Friedman has repeatedly pointed to the growing disorder caused by the civil war in Syria, the implosion of government in Libya and more widely the failure of the Arab Spring movement in the region as the source for growing disorder in the international system. His most recent piece was ‘Order vs disorder, part 4’, New York Times, 30 September 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/01/opinion/thomas-l-friedman-order-vs-disorder-part-4-.html
9. Hegemonic stability theory in the global economy appears with the classic work of Charles Kindleberger, The World in Depression, 1929–1939. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1986. For international politics, the description and workings of hegemonic stability is best identified with Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981. Post hegemony arises with Robert Keohane in, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984, 2005.
10. Ikenberry J, ‘The three faces of liberal internationalism’, in Alexandroff AS & AF Cooper (eds) Rising States, Rising Institutions. Washington and Waterloo, Ontario: Brookings Institution Press and CIGI, 2010, pp. 17–47 at p. 28.
11. Bishop M, ‘“The Summit”: Bretton Woods, 1944: J. M. Keynes and the reshaping of the global economy by Ed Conway’, New York Times, Book Review, 16 March 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/22/books/review/the-summit-by-ed-conway.html?ref=books
12. The unsung chronicler of the emergence of these informal institutions is a colleague at the University of Toronto, John Kirton. With the publisher Ashgate and numerous colleagues from the University of Toronto and other academies in the G7 countries, Kirton and his colleagues described the appearance and influence of the G7, the G7/8 and now more recently the G20. There are many volumes but just as examples see: Hajnal PI, The G7/G8 System. Aldershot: Ashgate, 1999; Kirton J, M Larionova & P Savona (eds) Making Global Economic Governance Effective: Hard and Soft Law Institutions in a Crowded World. Farnham: Ashgate, 2010; and Kirton JJ, G20 Governance for a Globalized World. Farnham: Ashgate, 2013.
13. I am not exactly sure of the origin of this term, but I began to use this terminology in talks and presentations, and at my blog ‘Rising BRICSAM’, http://blog.risingbricsam.com/, soon after the appearance of the G20 leaders’ summit in 2008. See also Alexandroff A (ed.) Can the World be Governed? Possibilities for Effective Multilateralism. Waterloo, Otario: Wilfrid Laurier Press/CIGI, 2008.
14. Analysts have suggested that, although commentators generally use the two terms interchangeably, institutions describe not just the organisations but also the norms and rules – closer to the definition of regimes of international relations. See Stein A, ‘Neoliberal institutionalism’ in Reus-Smit C & D Snidal (eds) The Oxford Handbook of International Relations. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008, pp. 201– 21.
15. See Alexandroff AS, ‘The challenges to contemporary global order’. Paper presented at the annual convention of the International Studies Association, New Orleans, February, 2015. Alexandroff AS, ‘Defining global summitry: Its meaning and scope’, Global Summitry: Politics, Economics and Law in International Governance, 2015, http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/global/guv006.
16. Commentators have followed the ‘Rise of the Informals’ but have largely missed the characteristic and importance of the involvement of leaders in these institutions. It marks a major change in the way that these organisations operate and influence global governance. See today the emergence of the Oxford University Press journal Global Summitry: Politics, Economics and Law in International Governance.
17. Hamilton K & R Langhorne, The Practice of Diplomacy: It’s Evolution, Theory and Administration, 2nd edn. New York: Routledge, 1995, 2011, at p. 221 .
18. Many commentators tend to see these annual meetings as largely constituting global summitry, but in fact these leaders gathering are perched on very complex institutional arrangements both traditional and non-traditional. It was what I have called elsewhere, ‘The Iceberg Theory of Global Governance’.’ .
19. The literature going back several decades chronicled the refashioning of multilateralism from universalism to minilateralism or plurilateralism. See Krasner S (ed.) International Regimes. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1983; Ruggie JG, ‘Multilateralism: The anatomy of an institution’, IO, 46.3, 1992, pp. 561– 98; and Kahler M, ‘multilateralism with small and large numbers’, IO, 46.3, 1992, pp. 681–708.
20. Anne-Marie Slaughter was one of the first to identify both the disaggregation of the state in global governance and the rising networking of these disaggregated state elements. Slaughter A, A New World Order. Princeton, NJ: Oxford University Press, 2004. Climate change governance has examined the multilevel decision structures. See Keohane RO & D Victor, ‘The regime complex for climate change’, Perspectives on Politics, 9.1, 2011, pp. 7–21 and see also for cyber security, Nye J Jr, ‘The regime complex for managing global cyber activities’, Global Commission on Internet Governance, Paper no. 1, May, 2014.
21. Cooper A, ‘Beyond the middle power model: Canada in a reshaping global order’, South African Journal of International Affairs, 22.2, 2015 (this special issue). In addition, some time ago Cooper waded into the effort to describe middle powers: see Cooper A, RA Higgott & KR Nossal, Relocating Middle Powers: Australia and Canada in a Changing World Order. Carlton, Victoria: Melbourne University Press, 1993. More recently he targeted middle power yet again: Cooper AF & J Mo, ‘Middle power leadership and the evolution of the G20’, Global Summitry Journal, 1 .1, 2013, pp. 1–14.
22. Cooper A, ‘Beyond the middle power model: Canada in a reshaping global order’, South African Journal of International Affairs, 22.2, 2015 (this special issue).
23. Cooper A, ‘Beyond the middle power model: Canada in a reshaping global order’, South African Journal of International Affairs, 22.2, 2015 (this special issue).
24. Qobo M & M Dube, ‘South Africa’s foreign economic strategies in a changing global system’. South African Journal of International Affairs, 22.2, 2015 (this special issue).
25. See the original, extended, paper by Qobo M and M Dube, presented at the conference, ‘Alliances Beyond the BRICS: South Africa's Role in Global Economic Governance’, December 2014, Pretoria, South Africa.
26. See the original, extended, paper by Qobo M and M Dube, presented at the conference, ‘Alliances Beyond the BRICS: South Africa's Role in Global Economic Governance’, December 2014, Pretoria, South Africa.
27. See the original, extended, paper by Qobo M and M Dube, presented at the conference, ‘Alliances Beyond the BRICS: South Africa's Role in Global Economic Governance’, December 2014, Pretoria, South Africa.
28. Indeed by World Bank measure, China is in fact the second largest economy.
29. Hurrell A, ‘Hegemony, liberalism and global order: What space for would-be great powers?’ International Affairs, 82.1, 2006, pp. 1–19. Another early examination is provided by Armijo LE, ‘The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) as analytical category: Mirage or insight?’, Asian Perspective, 31.4, 2007, pp. 7–42.
30. Hurrell A, ‘Hegemony, liberalism and global order: What space for would-be great powers?’, International Affairs, 82.1, 2006, p. 1.
31. Hurrell A, ‘Hegemony, liberalism and global order: What space for would-be great powers?’, International Affairs, 82.1, 2006, p. 2.
32. Hurrell A, ‘Hegemony, liberalism and global order: What space for would-be great powers?’, International Affairs, 82.1, 2006, p. 3.
33. See Gómez Bruera HF, ‘To be or not to be: Mexico an emerging power?’ South African Journal of International Affairs, 22.2, 2015 (this special issue).
34. Qobo M & M Dube, ‘South Africa’s foreign economic strategies in a changing global system’. South African Journal of International Affairs, 22.2 (this special issue).
35. Qobo M & M Dube, ‘South Africa’s foreign economic strategies in a changing global system’. South African Journal of International Affairs, 22.2 (this special issue).
36. Beeson M, ‘The elusive “national interest”: Reconciling Australia’s policy priorities in a global era’, at p. 11. Paper prepared for Alliances Beyond BRICS: South Africa’s Role in Global Economic Governance, 4–5 December.
37. McDonnell J, ‘Interview: Oliver Stuenkel, “Why the BRICS will remain an important force in world affairs in 2015 and beyond”’, The Diplomat Newsletter, 17 March 2015, http://thediplomat.com/2015/03/interview-oliver-stuenkel/
38. Alden C & M Schoeman , ‘South Africa in the company of giants: The search for leadership in a transforming global order’, International Affairs, 89.1, January 2013, pp. 111–29 at p. 126.
39. See the original, extended, paper by Qobo M and M Dube, presented at the conference, ‘Alliances Beyond the BRICS: South Africa's Role in Global Economic Governance’, December 2014, Pretoria, South Africa.
40. See the original, extended, paper by Qobo M and M Dube, presented at the conference, ‘Alliances Beyond the BRICS: South Africa's Role in Global Economic Governance’, December 2014, Pretoria, South Africa.
41. See the original, extended, paper by Qobo M and M Dube, presented at the conference, ‘Alliances Beyond the BRICS: South Africa's Role in Global Economic Governance’, December 2014, Pretoria, South Africa.
42. Alden C & M Schoeman, ‘South Africa in the company of giants: The search for leadership in a transforming global order’, International Affairs, 89.1, January 2013, pp. 111–29, at p. 112.
43. Alden C & M Schoeman, ‘South Africa in the company of giants: The search for leadership in a transforming global order’, International Affairs, 89.1, January 2013, p. 116. The quote is by Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, ‘SA’s aim: Champion of Africa’s interests abroad’, Sunday Independent, 15 January 2012, p. 6.
44. Magnowski D, ‘Nigerian economy overtakes South Africa’s on rebased GDP’, Bloomberg Business, 7 April 2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-04-06/nigerian-economy-overtakes-south-africa-s-on-rebased-gdp (accessed 21 May 2015).
45. Obi C, ‘Repositioning South Africa in global economic governance: A perspective from Nigeria’, South African Journal of International Affairs, 22.2, 2015 (this special issue).
46. Cooper AF & J Mo, ‘Middle power leadership and the evolution of the G20’, Global Summitry Journal, 1.1, 2013, pp. 1–14, at p. 1.
47. Cooper AF & J Mo, ‘Middle power leadership and the evolution of the G20’, Global Summitry Journal, 1.1, 2013, pp. 1–14, at p. 1.
48. Cooper AF & J Mo, ‘Middle power leadership and the evolution of the G20’, Global Summitry Journal, 1.1, 2013, at pp. 11–12.
49. Beeson M, ‘The elusive “national interest”: Reconciling Australia’s policy priorities in a global era’, at p. 11. Paper prepared for Alliances Beyond BRICS: South Africa’s Role in Global Economic Governance, 4–5 December.
50. See Loukianova A, ‘Improving nuclear security – One summit at a time’, Global Summitry: Politics, Economics, and Law in International Governance, 1.1 (2015, forthcoming).
51. Ikenberry GJ , ‘The future of the liberal world order: Internationalism after America,’ Foreign Affairs, 90.3, May/June 2011, pp. 56–62.
52. Patrick S, ‘Geopolitics is back – And global governance is out’, 2015, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/geopolitics-back%E2%80%94-global-governance-out-12868 (accessed 21 May 2015).
53. Kupchan and Bremmer both focus on the decline in US leadership and the emergence of growing disorder without the leadership guidance of a hegemonic stabiliser. Kupchan C, No One’s World: The West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global Turn. New York: Oxford University Press, 2012; and Bremmer I, Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World. New York: Penguin Group, 2012.
54. A most illuminating examination of American leadership and its capacity to retain structural influence has been made by Harvard’s Joe Nye. See Nye J Jr, Is the American Century Over? Cambridge: Polity Press, 2015.
55. Wihardja MM, ‘Indonesia's history and its relevance to South Africa’, at p. 10. Paper prepared for Alliances Beyond BRICS: South Africa’s Role in Global Economic Governance, 4–5 December 2014.
56. Patrick S & N Egel, ‘Economic coalition of the willing: The OECD reinvents itself’, 11 March 2015, Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/140586
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58. Qobo M & M Dube, ‘South Africa’s foreign economic strategies in a changing global system’. South African Journal of International Affairs, 22.2 (this special issue).
59. See the original, extended, paper by Qobo M and M Dube, presented at the conference, ‘Alliances Beyond the BRICS: South Africa's Role in Global Economic Governance’, December 2014, Pretoria, South Africa.
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62. ‘BRICS chief justices agree to enhance judicial cooperation’, CCTV America, 28 March 2015, http://www.cctv-america.com/2015/03/28/brics-chief-justices-agree-to-enhance-judicial-cooperation#ixzz3VoWwdzoe
63. Arda M, ‘Turkey – the evolving interface of international relations and domestic politics’, South African Journal of International Affairs, 22.2 (this special issue).
64. Alden C & M Schoeman , ‘South Africa in the company of giants: The search for leadership in a transforming global order’, International Affairs, 89.1, January 2013, pp. 111– 29 at 128–29.