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Articles

Russia in the Horn of Africa: Re-engagement in a new strategic environment

 

ABSTRACT

This article discusses the role of Russia in the Horn of Africa in the context of Moscow’s drive to re-engage in the region amid stiff international competition. After providing an account of the geostrategic importance of the Horn, the article discusses a number of areas in which Russia has engaged in cooperation with various regional actors. Those discussed include anti-piracy efforts, military cooperation, trade in arms, cooperation on nuclear energy, and the role played by Russian private security agencies. In addition, analysis notes Russia’s debt relief for African states, failed vaccine diplomacy, assistance for oil exploration, and scholarships and training for African students. Discussion briefly considers the current war in Ukraine and the impact on Russian foreign policy on the Horn. The article concludes that Russia’s foray into Africa is largely to reassert its great power status without considerable costs and risks.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

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2 Balytnikov et al., ‘Russia’s Return to Africa.’

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10 Viswanathan, ‘Russia Makes a Comeback in Africa.’

11 Summit: Economic Forum: Russia-Africa, 23 October 2019, https://summitafrica.ru/en/programm/

12 Summit: Economic Forum: Russia-Africa, 23 October 2019, https://summitafrica.ru/en/programm/

13 Summit: Economic Forum: Russia-Africa, 23 October 2019, https://summitafrica.ru/en/programm/

14 Summit: Economic Forum: Russia-Africa, 23 October 2019, https://summitafrica.ru/en/programm/.

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19 International Crisis Group, ‘Intra-Gulf Competition in Africa’s Horn: Lessening the Impact,’ ICG Middle East Report nr. 206 (September 2019); Camille Lons, ‘Gulf Countries Reconsider Their Involvement in the Horn of Africa,’ International Institute for Strategic Studies (June 1, 2021).

20 Y. Igrouane, ‘Djibouti: A Busy Hub of Foreign Military Bases on the Horn of Africa,’ inside arabia, 2019, https://insidearabia.com/djibouti-a-busy-hub-of-foreign-military-bases-on-the-horn-of-africa/

21 Reuters, ‘China Formally Opens First Overseas Military Base in Djibouti,’ Emerging Markets, August 1, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-djibouti-idUSKBN1AH3E3

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25 ICC International Maritime Bureau, Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships: Annual Report, 1 January – 31 December 2008, January 2009.

26 J. Ho, ‘Piracy Around the Horn of Africa,’ EchoGeo, 2009.

27 MIT Open Course Ware, ‘Explaining China’s Participation in Anti-Piracy Operations in the Gulf of Aden,’ Department of Political Science, May 2016, https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/politicalscience/17-407-chinese-foreign-policy-internationalrelations-and-strategy-spring-2009/projects/MIT17_407S09_student2.pdf

28 MIT Open Course Ware, ‘Explaining China’s Participation in Anti-Piracy Operations in the Gulf of Aden.’

29 L. Willett, ‘Pirates and Power Politics,’ The RUSI Journal 156, no. 6 (2011): 20–25. doi:10.1080/03071847.2011.642681.

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31 János Besenyő and Gábor Sinkó, ‘Combating Piracy Strategically: Analysing the Successes and Challenges of NATO and EU Interventions Off the Somali Coast,’ South African Journal of International Affairs 29, no. 3 (September 2022): 295–309, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10220461.2022.2125064

32 T.O. Nia, Russia Building Military Bases in Africa: Report, August 4, 2020 (aa.com.tr).

33 F.J. Harvey, ‘Russia’s Growing Clout in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa,’ Inside Arabia, February 15, 2021, https://insidearabia.com/russias-growing-clout-in-the-red-sea-and-horn-of-africa/

34 Harvey, ‘Russia’s Growing Clout in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa.’

35 Russian News Agency, TASS, 23 August 2021, Ethiopia grateful to Russia for its position on Tigray crisis, Ambassador to Moscow says – World – TASS.

36 F.J. Harvey, ‘Russia’s Growing Clout in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa,’ Inside Arabia, February 15, 2021, https://insidearabia.com/russias-growing-clout-in-the-red-sea-and-horn-of-africa/

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38 K.R. Cragin and L. MacKenzie, Russia’s Escalating Use of Private Military Companies in Africa. Institute for National Strategic Studies, November 24, 2020 (ndu.edu).

39 The Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, Part II, Section XII, Chapter 34. Crimes Against Peace and Mankind’s Security.

40 U.S Department of State, Wagner Group, Yevgeniy Prigozhin and Russia’s Disinformation in Africa, 24 May 2022, Wagner Group, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, and Russia’s Disinformation in Africa – United States Department of State.

41 R. Parens, ‘The Wagner Group’s Playbook in Africa:Mali,’ March 18, 2022, https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/03/the-wagner-groups-playbook-in-africa-mali/

42 Parens, ‘The Wagner Group’s Playbook in Africa:Mali.’

43 L. Harding, ‘Russian Mercenaries Accused of Deadly Attacks on Mines on Sudan-CAR Border,’ The Guardian, June 21, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/21/russian-mercenaries-accused-of-deadly-attacks-on-mines-on-sudan-car-border.

44 N. Elbagir and others, ‘Russia is Plundering Gold in Sudan to Boost Putin’s War Effort in Ukraine,’ CNN, July 29, 2022, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/29/africa/sudan-russia-gold-investigation-cmd-intl/index.html.

45 F.S. Fassanotti, ‘Russia’s Wagner Group in Africa: Influence, Commercial Concessions, Rights Violations, and Counterinsurgency Failure,’ ORDER FROM CHAOS, February 8, 2022, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/02/08/russias-wagner-group-in-africa-influence-commercial-concessions-rights-violations-and-counterinsurgency-failure/.

46 U. Jamal, ‘Russian Arms Sale in Southeast Asia: What Does it Mean for the Region?’ Asean Today.

47 D. Welle, ‘Russian Arms Exports to Africa: Moscow’s Long-Term Strategy,’ https://www.dw.com/en/russian-arms-exports-to-africa-moscows-long-term-strategy/a-53596471.

48 A. Kalika, ‘Russia’s Great Return to Africa,’ Russie.Nei.Visions, 2019.

49 Ekip, ‘Russia, Ethiopia Ink Military Cooperation Agreement,’ World, Africa, July 12, 2021, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/russia-ethiopia-ink-military-cooperation-agreement/2302337.

50 T. Deen, ‘Ethiopia’s Civil War Fueled by Weapons from UN’s Big Powers,’ allAfrica, November 25, 2021, https://allafrica.com/stories/202111260059.html.

51 Defense News, ‘Ethiopia Buys Ukrainian Tanks,’ UPI, June 9, 2011 (UPI.com).

52 I. Gridneff, ‘Russia’s Africa Moves Force Europe Rethink on Ethiopia,’ Politico, July 28, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-russia-ethiopia-rethink/

53 J. Hedenskog, ‘Russia is Stepping up its Military Cooperation in Africa,’ Swedish Defence Research Agency.

54 E. Yoseph, ‘Russian Nuclear Power in Ethiopia,’ Standford University, 2021, http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2021/ph241/yoseph1/.

55 S. Shankar, ‘Russia Return to Africa: Analysis,’ Raos Rosatom, June 19, 2019, http://www.rusatom-overseas.com/media/mass-media-about-us/russia-returns-to-africa-analysis.html.

56 T. Kassa, ‘Ethiopa, Russia Signs Agreement on Cooperation in Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy,’ Ethiopian Herald, October 24, 2019.

57 Joseph Atta-Mensah and Muazu Ibrahim, ‘Explaining Africa’s Debt: The Journey So Far and the Arithmetic of the Policymaker,’ Theoretical Economics Letters 10, no. 2 (April 2020), https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=99860.

58 H.H.S Viswanathan, ‘Russia Makes a Comeback in Africa: First Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi,’ Observer Research Foundation, November 7, 2019, https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/russia-makes-a-comeback-in-africa-first-russia-africa-summit-in-sochi-57386/.

59 The Moscow Times, ‘Russia Vows to forgive Ethiopia’s Debts Amid Growing Push for Influence in Africa,’ October 22, 2019.

60 H. Grebregzabiher and D. Gebrehiwot, ‘Ethiopia: Moscow Eyes Greater Engagement in Ethiopia’s Energy Development,’ March 10, 2018, https://allafrica.com/stories/201803100157.html.

61 The Guardian, ‘Sputnik V Vaccine Has 91.6% Efficacy against Symptomatic Covid, Russian Trial Suggest,’ Vaccines and immunisation | The Guardian.

62 The Economic Times, ‘Russia’s Sputnik V Covid-19 Vaccine Will Cost Less Than $20 Per Person Internationally,’ November 25, 2020 (indiatimes.com).

63 P. Stronski, ‘Russian Covid-19 Diplomacy in Africa: A Mixed Bag,’ Carnage Endowment for International Peace, December 10, 2021, https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/12/10/russian-covid-19-diplomacy-in-africa-mixed-bag-pub-85971.

64 Kayla Arnold, ‘The Epidemic – Terrorism Nexus and How to Safeguard Africa Against Bioterrorism: Lessons from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative?’ South African Journal of International Affairs 28, no. 2 (June 2021): 145–65, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10220461.2021.1922309.

65 Stronski, ‘Russian Covid-19 Diplomacy in Africa.’

66 K.K. Klomegah, ‘Russia’s COVID-19 Vaccine Diplomacy in Africa – Analysis.’ Eurasia Review, January 6, 2022. https://www.eurasiareview.com/06012022-russias-covid-19-vaccine-diplomacy-in-africa-analysis/.

67 M. Suzuki and S. Yang, ‘Political Economy of Vaccine Diplomacy: Explaining Varying Strategies of China, India, and Russia’s COVID-19 Vaccine Diplomacy.’ Review of International Political Economy (2022). doi:10.1080/09692290.2022.2074514.

68 Higher education students from African countries in Russia 2010–2020, Published by Statista Research Department, March 4, 2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1131825/number-of-african-students-in-russia/

69 K.K. Klomegah, ‘Fewer African Students Came to Russia in 2020,’ Modern Policy, April 4, 2021, https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2021/04/04/fewer-african-students-came-to-russia-in-2020/.

70 U.S Department of State, ‘2021 Investment Climate Statements: Ethiopia,’ https://www.state.gov/reports/2021-investment-climate-statements/ethiopia/.

71 Final Report, ‘Ethiopia Oil and Gas sector Development: Support for Review and Update of Policy and Regulatory Work’, The World Bank.

72 F. Tadesse, ‘Russian GBP Seals Afar Petroleum Exploration Contract with $60’, Addis Fortune, July 10, 2014, https://addisfortune.net/articles/russian-gbp-seals-afar-petroleum-exploration-contract-with-60/

73 Ibid.

74 This is consistent with the Oil Sharing and Production Agreement signed between the Company and Ministry of Mines on July 17, 2014.

75 S. Munasinghe, ‘The World Needs to Pay Attention to Russia’s Growing Influence in Africa,’ Time, April 4, 2022, https://time.com/6163624/russia-africa/.

76 K. Marten, ‘Russia’s Back in Africa: Is the Cold War Returning?’ The Washington Quarterly 42, no. 4: (2019): 155–70. doi:10.1080/0163660X.2019.1693105.

78 R. Picheto, J. Karadsheh, R. Gigova and T. Lister, ‘Kyiv and Moscow Agree Deal to Resume Ukraine Grain Exports from Black Sea Ports,’ CNN, July 23, 2022; Russia and Ukraine Sign Grain Exports Deal | CNN.

79 J. Sacko and I. Mayaki, ‘Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict,’ Economic Development, April 21, 2022, https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/may-2022/impact-russia-ukraine-conflict.

80 Sacko and Mayaki, ‘Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict.’

81 United Nations, ‘UN General Assembly Votes to Suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council.’ April 7, 2022, https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/04/1115782.

82 Ramani Samuel, ‘“Enagaged Opportunism”: Russia’s Role in the Horn of Africa, Russia Foreign Policy Papers,’ Foreign Policy Research Institute, July 2020. https://www.fpri.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/engaged-opportunism-russias-role-in-the-horn-of-africa.pdf

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Jithin Mathew

Jithin Mathew is a doctoral candidate in the Department of International Relations & Politics, Central University of Kerala, India.

John S Moolakkattu

John S Moolakkattu is a visiting professor in the Department of International Relations & Politics, Mahatma Gandhi University, Kottayam, Kerala, India.

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