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Articles

The ‘new geopolitics’ of mineral supply chains: A window of opportunity for African countries

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Pages 177-203 | Received 15 Jan 2023, Accepted 13 Jun 2023, Published online: 14 Jul 2023
 

ABSTRACT

Following the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the focus of many industrialised states has shifted regarding where they secure raw materials; a revised geopolitical perspective has impelled states to reduce strong dependencies on certain countries. For the European Union, its proposed Critical Raw Materials Act could have a crucial impact on the economic relationship of EU countries with China, currently the most important source of processed minerals to the EU, causing them to set ambitious diversification targets. How will this rise of a ‘new geopolitics’ of mineral supply chains shape the relationship between the EU and other trading partners, such as mineral-rich countries on the African continent? And how might African economies work to maximise their own benefit from this refocus? The article explores current geopolitical dynamics as they relate to the restructuring of supply chains, as well as opportunities for African economies.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

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13 The article was developed within the framework of the research project ‘Transnational Approaches for Sustainable Commodity Supply Chains’ at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). The project is funded by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) in Germany. For the project, 130 interviews were conducted with experts, political decision-makers, business actors and civil society in the mining sector. Participatory observation took place within the framework of different events.

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24 Olivier Cattaneo, Gary Gereffi and Cornelia Staritz, ‘Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World: Resilience, Consolidation and Shifting End Markets,’ in Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World: A Development Perspective, ed. Olivier Cattaneo, Gary Gereffi and Cornelia Staritz (Washington DC: World Bank, 2010), 18.

25 Gabriel Felbermayr and Holger Görg, ‘Die Folgen von Covid-19 für die Globalisierung,’ Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik 21, no. 3 (2020), https://doi.org/10.1515/pwp-2020-0025

26 Felbermayr and Görg, ‘Folgen von Covid-19.’

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32 Sara Stevano et al., ‘Covid-19 and Crisis of Capitalism: Intensifying Inequalities and Global Responses,’ Canadian Journal of Development Studies 42 (2021): 1, https://doi.org/10.1080/02255189.2021.1892606

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40 Günther Maihold, ‘Geopolitics of Supply Chains.’

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42 Beata S. Javorcik et al., ‘Economic Costs of Friend-Shoring’ (working paper 274, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, December 2022), https://www.ebrd.com/documents/oce/economic-costs-of-friendshoring.pdf.

43 Rahul Guhathakurta, ‘Friendshoring.’

44 For example: EU Commission, ‘Strategic Foresight Report 2022’ (Brussels: European Union, 2022), 23, https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/strategic-planning/strategic-foresight_en

45 Rüdiger Bachman et al, ‘What if Germany is Cut Off from Russian Energy?’ Centre for Economic Policy Research 2022, 94–101, https://cepr.org/system/files/2022-09/172987-global_economic_consequences_of_the_war_in_ukraine_sanctions_supply_chains_and_sustainability.pdf#page=104.

46 EU Commission, Strategic Foresight Report 2022 (Brussels: European Union, 2022), 23, https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/strategic-planning/strategic-foresight_en.

47 EU Commission, ‘Critical Raw Materials: Ensuring Secure and Sustainable Supply Chains for EU’s Green and Digital Future,’ March 2023, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_1661.

48 Melanie Müller et al., ‘From Competition to a Sustainable Raw Materials Diplomacy’ (SWP Research Paper 01, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Berlin, 2023), doi:10.18449/2023RP0.

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51 Adnan Mazarei and Luc Leruth, ‘Green Energy Depends on Critical Minerals. Who Controls the Supply Chains?’ Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance, October 11, 2022, https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2022/10/11/green-energy-depends-on-critical-minerals-who-controls-the-supply-chains/.

52 Gao, ‘Value Chains to Values Chains.’

53 Ligang Song, ‘State-Owned Enterprise Reform in China: Past, Present and Prospects,’ in China’s 40 Years of Reform and Development: 1978–2018, ed. Ligang Song, Ross Garnaut, and Cai Fang (ANU Press, 2018), 345–74; Randall W. Stone, Yu Wang, and Shu Yu, ‘Chinese Power and the State-Owned Enterprise,’ International Organization 76, no. 1 (2022): 229–50, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818321000308; Denghua Zhang and Jianwen Yin, ‘China’s Belt and Road Initiative, from the Inside Looking Out,’ The Interpreter, July 2, 2019, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/china-s-belt-road-initiative-inside-looking-out

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64 European Commission Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, 3rd Raw Materials Scoreboard: European Innovation Partnership on Raw Materials (Publications Office, 2021).

65 Jane Nakano, Critical Minerals Supply Chains.

66 White House, Fact Sheet: Biden-⁠Harris Administration Announces Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force to Address Short-Term Supply Chain Discontinuities (Washington DC: The White House, June 8, 2021).

67 Jenna Trost and Jennifer B. Dunn, ‘Assessing the Feasibility of the Inflation Reduction Act’s EV Critical Mineral Targets,’ Nature Sustainability, March 2023, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01079-8.

68 European Commission, ‘Speech by President von der Leyen at the European Parliament Plenary on the preparation of the European Council meeting of 23–24 March 2023,’ speech, March 15, 2023, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_23_1672; European Commission, ‘Speech by President von der Leyen at the European Parliament Plenary on the conclusions of the European Council meeting of 23–24 March 2023,’ speech, March 29, 2023, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_23_1949

69 Philippe Varin, ‘Nous Devons Développer une Véritable Diplomatie des Métaux,’ Service Géologique National, https://www.brgm.fr/fr/actualite/interview/philippe-varin-devons-developper-veritable-diplomatie-metaux.

70 Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz, Eckpunktepapier: Wege zu einer Nachhaltigen und Resilienten Rohstoffversorgung (Berlin: BMWK, 2023).

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72 Speech by President von der Leyen on EU-China relations to the Mercator Institute for China Studies and the European Policy Centre on March 30, 2023, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_23_2063.

74 ‘Rohstoffpartnerschaften: EU setzt auf Global Gateway,’ TableEurope, December 7, 2022, https://table.media/europe/news/rohstoffpartnerschaften-eu-setzt-auf-global-gateway/.

75 Chloe Teevan et al., ‘The Global Gateway: A Recipe for EU Geopolitical Relevance?’ (discussion paper 33, Center for Africa-Europe Relations, June 13, 2022), https://ecdpm.org/work/global-gateway-recipe-eu-geopolitical-relevance.

76 Hanns Günther Hilpert, ‘Japan,’ in Fragmentation or Cooperation in Global Resource Governance? A Comparative Analysis of the Raw Materials Strategies of the G20, ed. Hanns Günther Hilpert and Stormy-Annika Mildner (Berlin: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2013), 100.

77 G7 Minister’s Meeting on Climate, Energy and Environment: Five-Point Plan for Critical Minerals, April 2023, https://www.env.go.jp/content/000127541.pdf.

78 US Department of State, ‘Minerals Security Partnership,’ Juni 2022, https://www.state.gov/minerals-security-partnership/.

80 Andreoni and Roberts, ‘Geopolitics of Critical Minerals.’

81 Interviews with German and EU political decision-makers, as well as with researchers in France.

82 Jobson Ewalefoh, ‘The New Scramble for Africa,’ in The Palgrave Handbook of Africa and the Changing Global Order, ed. Samuel Ojo Oloruntoba and Toyin Falola (Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2021), https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77481-3_15.

83 See for example Tony Addison and Alan Roe, Extractive Industries: The Management of Resources as a Driver of Sustainable Development, 1st ed. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018), https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198817369.001.0001.

84 Evelyn Shumba, ‘What the AfCFTA Means for the Mining Sector,’ The Exchange Africa’s Investment Gateway, March 31, 2021, https://theexchange.africa/tech-business/what-the-afcfta-means-for-the-mining-sector/.

85 ‘Special Issue: New Perspectives on Global Value Chains: Bringing Institutions Back in’ Global Policy 9, no. 2 (2018), https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12627.

86 Ilaria Fusacchia, Jean Balié and Luca Salvatici, ‘The AfCFTA Impact on Agricultural and Food Trade: A Value Added Perspective,’ European Review of Agricultural Economics 49, no. 1 (2022), https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbab046; Andrew Mold, Kasim Ggombe Munyegera and Rodgers Mukwaya, ‘What Trade-in-Value Added Databases Tell us about Continental Integration – And what it Means for the AfCFTA’ (paper, 25th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Virtual Conference, 2022); K Banga et al., ‘Africa Trade and Covid-19: The Supply Chain Dimension’ (working paper 586, Organização Mundial da Saúde, 2020).

87 ‘The New Scramble for Africa,’ Economist, March 7, 2019, https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/03/07/the-new-scramble-for-africa.

88 Landry Signé and Chelsea Johnson, ‘Africa’s Mining Potential: Trends, Opportunities, Challenges and Strategies’ (Policy Paper 21/10, Policy Center for the New South, Rabat, 2021), 10, https://www.africaportal.org/documents/21630/PP-10-21-Landry-Signe_1.pdf.

89 Patricia Ackah-Baidoo, ‘Implementing Local Content under the Africa Mining Vision: An Achievable Outcome?’ Canadian Journal of Development Studies 41, no. 3 (2020), https://doi.org/10.1080/02255189.2020.1809360.

90 For a comprehensive overview see Gavin Hilson, ‘The Africa Mining Vision: a manifesto for more inclusive-led development?’ Canadian Journal of Development Studies 41, no. 3 (2020).

91 African Union, African Mining Vision, February 2009, https://cirdis.uqam.ca/IMG/pdf/amv-en.pdf.

92 Daniel Béland, Bonnie Campbell, Mylène Coderre and Privilege Haang’andu, ‘Policy Change and Paradigm Shifts in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implementing the Africa Mining Vision,’ Canadian Journal of African Studies 56, no. 1 (2022), 79–97, https://doi.org/10.1080/00083968.2021.1886955.

93 Gavin Hilson, ‘The Africa Mining Vision: A Manifesto for more Inclusive-Led Development? Canadian Journal of Development Studies 41, no. 3 (2020), 417–71, https://doi.org/10.1080/02255189.2020.1821352.

94 Hilson, ‘The Africa Mining Vision”; Patricia Ackah-Baidoo, ‘Implementing Local Content under the Africa Mining Vision: An Achievable Outcome?’ Canadian Journal of Development Studies 41, no. 3 (2020), https://doi.org/10.1080/02255189.2020.1809360.

95 Faizel Ismail, ‘A Call for a Developmental Regionalism Approach to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA),’ Center for Africa-Europe Relations, March 26, 2020, https://ecdpm.org/work/the-african-continental-free-trade-area-from-agreement-to-impact-volume-9-issue-1-2020/a-call-for-a-developmental-regionalism-approach-to-the-african-continental-free-trade-area-afcfta.

96 See for example Andreoni and Roberts, ‘Geopolitics of Critical Minerals’; Isabelle Ramdoo, ‘Fixing Broken Links: Linking Extractive Sectors to Productive Value Chains,’ ECDPM, March 2013, https://ecdpm.org/work/fixing-broken-links-linking-extractive-sectors-to-productive-value-chains; The Extractives-led Local Economic Diversification Framework, ‘Factors to Consider Before Moving Downstream,’ https://www.elledframework.org/topics/refining-and-further-processing-of-extractives/factors-to-consider-in-deciding-whether-to-enter-into-refining-and-further-downstream-technologies; Ramdoo Isabelle, ‘Fixing Broken Links: Linking Extractive Sectors to Productive Value Chains,’ South African Journal of International Affairs (2013).

97 Danielle Marais, ‘Africa’s Mineral Resources are Critical for the Green Energy Transition,’ Mining Weekly, November 15, 2022, https://saiia.org.za/research/africas-mineral-resources-are-critical-for-the-green-energy-transition/.

98 Interview with representatives of the African Development Bank, Cape Town, February 2023.

99 Discussion with representative of MIASA at the German Africa Business Summit, December 2022.

100 Jane Korinek, ‘Trade Restrictions on Metals and Minerals,’ ResourceTrade.Earth, July 23, 2018, https://resourcetrade.earth/publications/trade-restrictions-on-metals-and-minerals

101 Joseph Atta-Mensah et al., ‘Webinar ‘Minerals and Africa’s Development’ February 25, 2021, Mineral Economics 35 (2022), https://doi.org/10.1007/s13563-021-00273-4.

102 Vitalio Angula, ‘Namibia, EU, Agree on Partnership for Sustainable Raw Materials,’ VOA, October 26, 2022, https://www.voanews.com/a/namibia-eu-agree-on-partnership-for-sustainable-raw-materials/6807397.html

103 Oliver P. Maponga and Chilombo Musa, ‘Domestication of the Role of the Mining Sector in Southern Africa through Local Content Requirements,’ The Extractive Industries and Society 8, no. 1 (2021), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2020.06.001.

104 African Development Bank, ‘Approach Paper Towards Preparation of an African Green Minerals Strategy,’ African Development Bank, December 2022, https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/approach-paper-towards-preparation-african-green-minerals-strategy; Deon Cloete, ‘SADC Futures of Mining: Implications of Large-Scale EV Adoption,’ South African Institute of International Affairs (2020).

105 Dominic Tribe, ‘EV Makers Race to Find Workaround as Supply Shortages Bite,’ Engineering and Technology 17, no. 4 (2022), https://doi.org/10.1049/et.2022.0403.

106 Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Industry, Ministerial Statement by the Minister of Commerce, Trade and Industry (Mr Chipoka Mulenga), MP on the Zambia-Democratic Republic of Congo Joint Initiative to Establish a Value Chain in the Electric Battery And Clean Energy Sector, https://www.parliament.gov.zm/sites/default/files/images/publication_docs/Ministerial%20Statement%20-%20On%20Zambia-Congo%20DR%20Joint%20Initiative%20on%20Electric%20Battery.pdf

107 F.K. Grundwell, N.B. du Preez and B.D.H. Knights, ‘Production of Cobalt from Copper-Cobalt Ores on the African Copperbelt – An Overview,’ Minerals Engineering 156 (2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mineng.2020.106450

109 ‘Zimbabwe Litihium Ore Export Ban may be a Step Towards Refinery,’ 360Mozambique, January 2, 2023, https://360mozambique.com/world/africa/zimbabwe-lithium-ore-export-ban-may-be-a-step-towards-refinery/.

111 Emily Tyler, Lonwabo Mdoguso, Just Energy Transitions and Partnerships in Africa: A South African Case Study, 2022. Meridian Economics.

112 The Presidency Republic of South Africa, South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET IP) for the Initial Persiod 2023–2027 (November 2022), https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/download/file/fid/2649.

113 Cloete, ‘SADC Futures of Mining: Implications of Large-Scale EV Adoption.’

114 Byelongo Elisee Isheloke and Harro von Blottnitz, ‘Regional Mineral Benefication Policy Interventions in the SADC: Industry Perspectives’ (Paper, International Mineral Processing Congress, Cape Town, October 18–22, 2020).

115 Deon Cloete, Neuma Grobbelaar, Ndeapo Wolf, Letitia Jentel, The South African Green Hydrogen TVET Ecosystem Just Transition Strategic Framework, synthesis report (South African Institute on International Affairs, December 2022).

117 Shift, ‘The EU Commission’s Proposal for a Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive’ (Analysis, Shift, New York, 2022), https://shiftproject.org/resource/eu-csdd-proposal/shifts-analysis/.

118 Gwamaka Kifukwe, ‘Law and Global Order: EU Legislation on Human Rights Due Diligence,’ European Council on Foreign Relations, February 22, 2022, https://ecfr.eu/article/law-and-global-order-eu-legislation-on-human-rights-due-diligence/.

119 Melanie Müller et al., ‘Von der Rohstoffkonkurrenz zur Nachhaltigen Rohstoffaußenpolitik. Politikansätze für Deutsche Akteure’ (SWP Research Paper 13, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Berlin, 2022), https://doi.org/10.18449/2022S13.

120 Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative Secretariat, ‘EITI in Africa’ (Briefing, EITI, Oslo, September 2018) https://eiti.org/documents/eiti-africa.

121 Rod Alence and Robert Mattes, Mineral Governance Barometer: Southern Africa, report (Johannesburg: Open Society Initiative for Southern Africa, December 2016), https://media.business-humanrights.org/media/documents/files/documents/osisa_barometer_report-finallowres.pdf.

122 Ronald Eisler, ‘Health Risks of Gold Miners: A Synoptic Review,’ Environmental Geochemistry and Health 25 (2003); Selina Bezzola, ‘CSR and Local Conflicts in African Mining Communities,’ World Development 158 (2022), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105968.

123 Darin Christensen, ‘Concession Stands: How Mining Investments Incite Protest in Africa,’ International Organization 73, no. 1 (2019), https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818318000413.

124 Peter Alexander, ‘Marikana, Turning Point in South African History,’ Review of African Political Economy 40, no. 138 (2013): 605–19, https://doi.org/10.1080/03056244.

125 Tobias Kalt and Jonas Lage, ‘Die Ressourcenfrage (re)politisieren! Suffizienz, Gerechtigkeit und sozial-ökologische Transformation,’ GAIA – Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society 28, no. 3 (2019), https://doi.org/10.14512/gaia.28.3.4.

126 Observation of the author of the discussions at the Mining Indaba in 2022 and 2023 (in Cape Town) and 2021 (virtual).

127 Konstantinos Komnitsas, ‘Social License to Operate in Mining: Present Views and Future Trends’ Resources 9, no. 6 (2020): 79, https://doi.org/10.3390/resources9060079.

128 Responsible Mining Foundation, RMI Report 2022 Summary (RMI, 2022), https://2022.responsibleminingindex.org/resources/RMI_Report_2022-Summary_EN.pdf

129 Terhemba Ambe-Uva, ‘Whither the State? Mining Codes and Mineral Resource Governance in Africa,’ Canadian Journal of African Studies 51, no. 1 (2017), https://doi.org/10.1080/00083968.2016.1277148; Hany Besada and Philip Martin, ‘Mining Codes in Africa: Emergence of a ‘Fourth’ Generation?’ Cambridge Review of International Affairs 28, no. 2 (2015), https://doi.org/10.1080/09557571.2013.840823.

130 Gavin Hilson, ‘The Africa Mining Vision: A Manifesto for More Inclusive-Led Development?’ Canadian Journal of Development Studies 41, no. 3 (2020): 419, https://doi.org/10.1080/02255189.2020.1821352.

131 Economic Justice Network, Alternative Mining Indaba, https://ejn.org.za/en/alternative-mining-indaba/.

132 See for example Sethulego Matebisi, Social Licensing and Mining in South Africa’ (Routledge, 2019).

133 For example U.S. regulation of so-called conflict minerals – the Dodd Frank Act from 2010 –, has been accompanied by unintended consequences for the extractive sector in the Great Lakes region.

134 Dirk-Jan Koch and Olga Burlyuk, ‘Bounded Policy Learning? EU Efforts to Anticipate Unintended Consequences in Conflict Minerals Legislation,’ Journal of European Public Policy 27, no. 10 (2020), https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2019.1675744.

135 Karl Aiginger and Dani Rodrik, ‘Rebirth of Industrial Policy and an Agenda for the Twenty-First Century,’ Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade 20 (2020), https://doi.org/10.1007/s10842-019-00322-3.

Additional information

Funding

This article was created as part of the research project “Transnational Governance of Sustainable Commodity Supply Chains”, which was funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (Bundesministerium für Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung, BMZ).

Notes on contributors

Melanie Müller

Melanie Müller is a Senior Associate with a focus on Southern Africa at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, SWP) in Berlin and head of two research projects with a focus on mineral supply chains. She has been working on political and social developments in South Africa since 2011. Melanie Müller has also conducted research in other countries of the SADC region and in Niger and Ghana and has published extensively on the political and socioeconomic developments in Southern Africa, on resource governance and migration, as well as on European-African relations.