Mathematical model of measles transmission dynamics using real data from Nigeria

Abstract

Measles is a highly contagious and life-threatening disease caused by a virus called morbillivirus, despite the availability of a safe and cost-effective vaccine, it remains a leading cause of death, especially in children. Measles spreads easily from person to person via infected people's coughs and sneezes. It can also be transmitted through direct contact with the mouth or contaminated surfaces. To have a better knowledge of measles epidemiology in Nigeria, we develop a deterministic mathematical model to study the transmission dynamics of the disease in the population. The boundary of the model solution is performed, both equilibrium points are calculated, and the basic reproduction number ${\mathcal{R}}_0$ is determined. We have proved that when ${\mathcal{R}}_0<1$, the disease-free equilibrium point is both locally and globally stable. When ${\mathcal{R}}_0>1$, the endemic equilibrium point exists and is stable if it satisfies Routh–Hurwitz criteria. We demonstrate the model's effectiveness by using a real-life application of the disease spread in Nigeria. We fit the proposed model using available data from Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) from January to December 2020 to obtain the best fit, this help us to determine the accuracy of the proposed model's representation to the real-world data. We investigate the impact of vaccination rate and hospitalization of infected individuals on the dynamics of measles in the population. The result shows that the combined control strategies reduce the peak of infection faster than the single control strategy.

Keywords:

• Measles
• basic reproduction number
• stability analysis
• model fitting
• numerical simulation

Mathematics Subject Classifications:

• 92Bxx
• 92B05

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).