The Impact of Military Downsizing on Two Italian Communities: A Counterfactual Approach Using the Synthetic Control Method

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we propose a quasi-experimental approach to assess the effect that downsizing of the largest experimental military base in Europe, located in Sardinia, Italy, had on local economies. The study shows the fruitfulness of the Synthetic Control method for assessment of socioeconomic impacts on a single treated unit when other standard methods for impact evaluation are not feasible. It is shown that the local communities analysed have been characterised by different levels of frailty, which should be attentively considered if further downsizing of the base will be placed on the political agenda.

KEYWORDS:

• Military downsizing
• local economic impacts
• counterfactual methods
• synthetic control

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• H43
• O22
• R53
• R58

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. A review of European funded projects for regeneration of military sites in Italy can be found in Camerin (2017).

2. For a thorough analysis of tax evasion and under-reporting income in Italy, refer to Albarea et al. (2019).

Additional information

Funding

Financial funding by Regione Autonoma della Sardegna, [LR7/2007, Tender 2011, CRP-49887].