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ABSTRACT
This article examines the regional security predicaments surrounding Ethiopia’s access to the sea and thus to international markets for foreign trade. It takes regional stability and wealth as key variables for exploring the security dilemma caused by Ethiopia being landlocked in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) region. The findings of the qualitative analysis of secondary data suggest that intra- and extra-regional conflicts, weak intra-regional trade and poor infrastructure are the major obstacles to the country’s sea access and foreign trade. These problems exist despite (arguably weak) attempts at regional peacebuilding and trade and infrastructure development through external assistance and funding. Thus, strengthening such efforts remains a viable remedy for the regional dilemmas related to Ethiopia’s quest for access to the sea.
Acknowledgments
I am especially grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their constructive and enriching comments and suggestions, and to Dr Gemechisa Mendida for editing the manuscript.
Notes on contributor
Yohannes Tekalign earned his B.A. in Political Science and International Relations and his masters’ and Ph.D. in Peace and Security Studies from Addis Ababa University. He has over a decade’s experience in teaching and research at Ethiopia’s higher education institutions. His research focus is on regional peace, conflict and security. Currently, he is an assistant professor in Peace and Conflict Studies at the FDRE Meles Zenawi Leadership Academy, Ethiopia.
Notes
1 Faye et al., ‘Challenges Facing Landlocked Developing Countries’, 40, 43; Mahdi, ‘Security and Foreign Policy’, iv.
2 Idan and Shaffer, ‘Foreign Policies’, 241.
3 Jervis, ‘Cooperation Under Security Dilemma’.
4 Tang, ‘Security Dilemma’, 588.
5 Ministry of Information, Ethiopia’s Foreign Affairs.
6 MOFED, Ethiopia: Sustainable Development; NPC, Second Growth and Transformation Plan.
7 Buzan and Wæver, Regions and Powers.
8 Faye et al., ‘Challenges Facing Landlocked Developing Countries’, 40, 43.
9 Copley, ‘Energy and Security Issues’.
10 Kimenyi and Mbaku, ‘Limits of the New “Nile Agreement”’; Storey, ‘Crisis on the Nile’.
11 Arsano, Ethiopia and the Nile.
12 Metaferia, Ethiopia and the United States; Spencer, Ethiopia at Bay.
13 Arsano, Ethiopia and the Nile.
14 Copley, ‘Energy and Security Issues’.
15 Spencer, Ethiopia at Bay, 84. See also Metaferia, Ethiopia and the United States; Plaut, Understanding Eritrea.
16 Mengisteab, Critical Factors.
17 Copley, ‘Energy and Security Issues’.
18 AICE, ‘The Arab League’.
19 Ardemagni, ‘The Horn of Africa’s Growing Importance’; Mesfin, ‘Could Emirati Activism in the Horn Make the Situation Worse?’
20 It has widely been suggested that Egypt is on its way to establishing military bases at Eritrea’s Port of Assab and Somaliland’s Port of Berbera to aid in its war in Yemen alongside the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. See, for instance: Tekle, ‘Egypt to Establish Military Base in Eritrea’; Hailemariam, ‘Arabs’ Military Incursion’; ‘Doubts Grow Over Egypt’s Role’.
21 Erlich, The Cross and the River; Abraham, Ethiopia and the Arab.
22 Olewe, ‘Why Landlocked Ethiopia Wants to Launch a Navy’.
23 Healy, Hostage to Conflict.
24 Apuuli, ‘IGAD’s Peace and Security Strategy’.
25 Mulugeta, Role of Regional and International Organizations.
26 Elowson and Lins de Albuquerque, Challenges to Peace and Security.
27 IGAD, State of the Region, 2–4.
28 Abdi and Seid, Assessment of Economic Integration in IGAD.
29 IGAD, State of the Region, 2–4.
30 Ibid., 26–33.
31 Healy, Hostage to Conflict, 31.
32 Fikade, ‘Ethiopia Secures Land’.
33 Lefort, ‘Ethiopian Economy’.
34 Tekalign, ‘Nexus between Ethiopia’s Security and Its Landlockedness’.
35 Ahmed, Final Report of Feasibility Study.
36 ‘Ethiopia Gives Djibouti’s Guelleh Farmland’; IMF, Djibouti: Fourth Review.
37 IMF, Djibouti: Poverty Reduction Strategy.
38 FDRE, Proclamation N0.856/2014.
39 CGCOC Group, ‘Commencement Ceremony’.
40 For the cost of the project, see AidData, ‘China Funds Cross-Border Water Project’.
41 Ethiopia also started supplying electricity to Sudan in 2012 and Kenya in 2014. It provided them with 100 MW and 10 MW in 2014, respectively, while Djibouti received 60 MW in the same year. See ‘Ethiopia Exporting 170MW Electricity’.
42 Oxford Business Group, ‘Diversification Key’.
43 Ibid.
44 IEA, World Energy Outlook 2016.
45 This has been confirmed by the former Ethiopian prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, in his interview made with Fana Broadcasting Corporate.
46 Tekalign, ‘Nexus between Ethiopia’s Security and Its Landlockedness’.
47 Cohen, ‘U.S. and Ethiopia’.
48 Ibid.
49 Reuters, ‘Ethiopia-Djibouti rail line'.
50 This is for 656 km of the total 756 km, the remaining 100 km is within Djibouti’s jurisdiction: see ‘Djibouti Inaugurates Railway Link’.
51 Koigi, ‘International Finance Corporation’.
52 Cohen, ‘U.S. and Ethiopia’.
53 African Development Bank, African Economic Outlook 2016.
54 Abdi and Seid, Assessment of Economic Integration in IGAD.
55 Seid, Regional Integration and Trade.
56 Ibid.
57 Ibid. See also Healy, Hostage to Conflict.
58 Seid, Regional Integration and Trade.
59 NBE, 2014/15 Annual Report.
60 CIA, ‘Europe: Switzerland’.
61 IGAD, State of the Region, 2–4.
62 UNECA, Assessment of Progress.
63 IGAD, State of the Region, 2–4.
64 Ibid.
65 IGAD, Horn of Africa Initiative.
66 For the status of the Isiolo–Moyale portion of the highway in Kenya, see LCDA, ‘Highways’.
67 IGAD, State of the Region, 2–4.
68 Ochieng, ‘Sh840m Border Post’.
69 IGAD, State of the Region, 2–4.
70 Of the US$4 billion 756 km rail line, 100 km (US$0.6 billion) is in Djibouti and 656 km (US$ 3.4 billion) is in Ethiopia; see ‘Djibouti Inaugurates Railway Link to Ethiopia’.
71 Nathan Associates, Development of National Logistics Strategy.
72 For more on this project, see Railway Technology, ‘Awash Woldia / Hara Gebeya Railway Line Project’.
73 Barrow, ‘Ethiopian Railway Projects'.
74 Tadesse, ‘Semera-Tadjoura Railway’.
75 IGAD, State of the Region, 2–4.
76 Ibid.
77 Bekele, ‘IFC Shows Interest’.
78 LCDA, ‘LAPSSET Corridor Project.'
79 IGAD, State of the Region, 2–4.
80 Healy, Hostage to Conflict.
81 IGAD, State of the Region, 2–4.
82 Fikade, ‘Ethiopia Secures Land’.
83 Copley, ‘Energy and Security Issues’.
84 LCDA, ‘Highways’.
85 Ibid.
86 Kifle et al., Study for the Development of Dry Port.
87 Ford, ‘Horn of Africa’.
88 Addis Standard, ‘Ethiopia Acquires 19% Stake in Berbera Port.'
89 Healy, Hostage to Conflict.
90 Prunier, ‘Horn of Africa’.
91 ‘Ethiopia, Djibouti Hope to Take Bilateral Ties to Greater Height’.
92 Brown, Africa’s Booming Oil and Natural Gas Exploration.
93 Healy, Hostage to Conflict.
94 Brown, Africa's Booming Oil and Natural Gas Exploration.
95 Tekle, ‘Ethiopia Imports $1 Billion in Fuel’.
96 Maasho, ‘Ethiopian Oil Marketer’.
97 Verhoeven, Black Gold for Blue Gold?
98 Tekle, ‘Ethiopia Imports $1 Billion in Fuel’.
99 Bekele, ‘Ethiopian Petroleum Supply Enterprise Invites Companies to Supply Fuel’.
100 The Economist, ‘Ethiopia Opens Africa's Tallest Dam.'
101 NPC, Ethiopia’s Growth and Transformation Plan.
102 Expogroup, ‘Ethiopia's Energy Resources.'
103 Verhoeven, ‘Politics of African Energy Development’, 6.
104 Xinhua, ‘Ethiopia Earns 35 Million USD from Energy Exports.'
105 Getachew, ‘Ethiopia: Sudan Ranks Second Investing’.
106 Healy, Hostage to Conflict.
107 Ebaidalla, Trade between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, 5.
108 AllAfrica, Electric Export Generates Over US$ 80 Million.'
109 Fikade, ‘Ethiopia Secures Land’.
110 UN-OHRLLS, ‘Strengthening ICT Connectivity’.
111 Ibid.
112 UN-OHRLLS, ‘Enhancing ICT Development and Connectivity’.
113 Ibid., 2.
114 UN, E-Government Survey 2016.
115 Ibid.
116 Ibid.
117 Wallef, IGAD Regional Transport and ICT Policies.
118 ECCSA, Five-Year (2014/5–2018/19) Strategic Plan, 22.
119 EMAA, Transforming Ethiopia’s Logistics Sector.