An investigation of security outcome convergence and the dynamics of their influencing factors in Africa

ABSTRACT

This study explores the drivers of security outcome convergence for 51 African countries spanning the period from 2000 to 2018. Phillips and Sul convergence club and system generalised method of moments (SGMM) estimation techniques were applied. The main findings suggest security outcome convergence, and this implies that African countries are characterised by similar factors (economic, developmental, geographic and governance) which in turn determine an idiosyncratic course of their paths for security policies. The study further confirms that African countries in general appear to have gradually chosen at least to some extent similar paths for their security measures. It is asserted that the economic, developmental, geographic and governance policies pursued by African governments – and the ability of these governments to shape their policies – are likely to impact the process of security outcome convergence in Africa.

KEYWORDS:

• security outcome
• panel club convergence
• system generalised method of moments (SGMM)
• principal component analysis
• African countries

Acknowledgments

The author would like to sincerely thank the editors and three anonymous reviewers for their insightful and constructive comments that contributed to improving this paper.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1 ‘Solow, ‘Contribution to Theory of Economic Growth’; Solow, ‘Technical Change’; Swan, ‘Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation’.

2 Barro et al., ‘Convergence across States and Regions’; Barro and Sala-i-Martin, ‘Convergence’; Phillips and Sul, ‘Transition Modeling’; Phillips and Sul, ‘Economic Transition and Growth’.

3 Saba, ‘Convergence or Divergence Patterns’; Saba and Ngepah, ‘Convergence in Military Expenditure and Economic Growth’; Clark, ‘World Health Inequality’; Apergis, Christou and Miller, ‘Convergence Patterns’.

4 Islam, ‘What Have We Learnt?’.

5 Barro and Sala-i-Martin, ‘Convergence’.

6 Phillips and Sul, ‘Transition Modeling’. See also Phillips and Sul, ‘Economic Transition and Growth 1772’.

7 Saba, ‘Convergence or Divergence Patterns, 3’.

8 State Fragility Index and Matrix.

9 Saba and Ngepah, ‘Military Expenditure and Security Outcome Convergence’; Saba, ‘Military Expenditure and Security Outcome Convergence’.

10 Phillips and Sul, ‘Transition Modeling’.

11 Islam, ‘Growth Empirics’; Caselli, Esquivel and Lefort, ‘Reopening the Convergence Debate’.

12 Phillips and Sul, ‘Transition Modeling’.

13 Stewart, ‘Development and Security’.

14 Asghari, ‘National Security and Economic Growth’.

15 Bar-El, Pecht and Tishler, ‘Human Capital and National Security’.

16 Saba and Ngepah, ‘Military Expenditure and Security Outcome Convergence’.

17 Saba, ‘Military Expenditure and Security Outcome Convergence’.

18 Saba, ‘Security as an Outcome’.

19 Saba and Ngepah, ‘Military Expenditure, Security Outcome and Industrialisation’.

20 Kadri, Cordon Sanitaire.

21 Dunne and Tian, ‘Conflict Spillovers’.

22 Dunne, ‘Armed Conflicts’; Murdoch and Sandler, ‘Civil Wars and Economic Growth’.

23 Collier and Hoeffler, ‘Incidence of Civil War’.

24 Collier and Sambanis, Understanding Civil War.

25 F-de-Córdoba and Torres, ‘National Security’; Aizenman and Glick, ‘Military Expenditure’.

26 Smith, ‘Demand for Military Expenditure’.

27 Bassanini et al., ‘Economic growth: the role of policies and institutios. Panel data evidence from OECD countries’.

28 Phillips and Sul, ‘Transition Modeling’. The specifics of this approach are thoroughly discussed in the literature but for more information, see, among others: Saba, ‘Military Expenditure and Security Outcome Convergence’; Saba and Ngepah, ‘Military Expenditure and Security Outcome Convergence’.

29 Islam, ‘Growth Empirics’; Caselli, Esquival and Lefort, ‘Reopening the Convergence Debate’.

30 Arellano and Bover, ‘Another Look’; Blundell and Bond, ‘Initial Conditions’.

31 See, respectively: World Bank Open Data; Armed Conflict and Intervention (ACI) Datasets; World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database.

32 See, respectively: Armed Conflict and Intervention (ACI) Datasets; World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database.

33 Saba and David, ‘Convergence Patterns in Global ICT’.

34 Saba, ‘Military Expenditure and Security Outcome Convergence’.

35 Phillips and Sul, ‘Transition Modeling’.

36 Fosu, ‘Does inequality constrain poverty reduction programs? Evidence from Africa’.

37 Thorbecke, ‘The interrelationship linking growth, inequality and poverty in sub-Saharan Africa’.

38 Kwasi Fosu, ‘Economic structure, growth, and evolution of inequality and poverty in Africa: An overview’.

39 Campos and Nugent, ‘Who is afraid of political instability?’

40 Nel, ‘Income inequality, economic growth, and political instability in sub-Saharan Africa’.

41 Oualy, ‘Income Inequality and Socio-Political Instability in Sub-Saharan Africa’.

42 Retter et al., Relationships.

43 Collier, ‘Economic Consequences’; Collier and Hoeffler, ‘Greed and Grievance’.

44 Ilorah, ‘Trade, Aid and National Development’.

45 International Labour Organisation, Global Employment Trends.

46 World Bank, Africa Human Capital Plan, 1.

47 Ndoricimpa, ‘Threshold Effects’.

48 World Bank, Debt Vulnerabilities in IDA Countries.

49 Ndoricimpa, ‘Threshold Effects’.

50 Phillips and Sul, ‘Transition Modeling’.

51 Saba and Ngepah, ‘Military Expenditure, Industrialisation, and Economic Growth’; Saba and Ngepah, ‘Cross-Regional Analysis’; Saba and Ngepah, ‘Military Expenditure and Economic Growth’.

52 Saba, ‘Military Expenditure and Security Outcome Convergence’, 28.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Charles Shaaba Saba

Charles Shaaba Saba received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Johannesburg, South Africa. He is currently a research fellow at the University of Johannesburg’s School of Economics where his areas of research interest include defence and peace economics, public finance, growth and development economics, poverty and inequality, international trade, telecommunications, ICT and the digital economy and transport economics.