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ABSTRACT
Ten years after the last large scale piracy attacks in the Western Indian Ocean, other maritime crimes such as illicit fishing and maritime smuggling have emerged. The spill over of conflicts in Yemen and Mozambique and maritime grey-zone activities have also become major maritime security issues. Yet, perhaps the most worrying – though largely underappreciated – trend is the surge of naval activity and strategic competition in the region. This is a major dilemma for the region: The region relies on external military actors to protect vital shipping lanes, but the presence of these actors also risks importing geopolitical tensions that could undermine regional maritime stability. How can the region address these maritime insecurities and the evolving militarisation dilemma? We investigate the regional maritime security architecture to identify institutions that can help the region manage the militarisation dilemma. We argue that only the Shared Awareness and Deconfliction (SHADE) mechanism and the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia (CGPCS) can help mitigate geopolitical competition in the region. Preparing these mechanisms to deal with the militarisation dilemma will be vital for the long-term prosperity of the Western India Ocean.
Acknowledgements
We like to thank Diego Cánovas-Cánovas, Timothy Edmunds, Steve Lalande, Raj Mohabeer and Timothy Walker for comments and suggestions that have informed the article. A first version of this article has been presented at the 49th meeting of the Shared Awareness and Deconfliction Mechanism (SHADE), 2.2.2022 and we like to thank EUNAVFOR Atalanta for the opportunity to present our observations at the event.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Bueger, ‘What Is Maritime Security?’
2 Bueger and Edmunds. ‘Blue Crime’.
3 Bueger, ‘Learning from Piracy’; Stockbruegger, ‘US Strategy’.
4 A series of incidents have occurred which indicates ongoing pirate activities. For a 2017 incident see Bueger, McCabe, ‘Somali sea hijack’ for a 2019 incident see UNSC Doc S/2019/867 (2019).
5 UNSC Resolution S/RES/2608 (2021), 1.
6 Lendjel and Mareï, ‘The Complementarity’.
7 Bird, et al., Changing Tides.
8 Horwood, ‘Irregular Migration’.
9 The Indian Express, ‘Coast Guard Rescues’.
10 Sandhya, ‘Balochistan’; Panneerselvam, ‘Maritime Narcotics’.
11 US Central Command, ‘French Navy’; Bird, et al., Changing Tides.
12 Voyer et al., ‘Maritime Security’.
13 Stop Illegal Fishing, ‘Iranian fishing vessels’.
14 Otto, Graham, and Horn, ‘Maritime Terrorism’; Asal and Hastings, ‘When Terrorism Goes’.
15 Singh, ‘Maritime Terrorism in Asia’.
16 Sakhhuja, ‘Maritime Terrorism’.
17 UNODC, ‘UNODC Roundtable’.
18 Tankel, ‘Ten Years after’.
19 Devendra, ‘Yemen Civil War’.
20 Wiiliams, ‘The Yemen Conflict’.
21 Haugstvedt, ‘Red Sea Drones’.
22 Domson-Lindsay, ‘Mozambique’s Security Challenges’.
23 United Nations, Security Council.
24 Mitchell, ‘Maritime Boundaries’; Kadagi et al.. ‘Joint Management’.
25 Layton, ‘Responding to China’.
26 Barden, ‘The Strait of Hormuz’; Talmadge, ‘Closing Time’.
27 Stockbruegger, ‘US Strategy’.
28 Nadimi, ‘Undeclared War.’
29 Gardner, ‘Mercer Street’; Fassihi, Schmitt, and Bergman, ‘Israel-Iran Sea’.
30 Willett, ‘Pirates and Power Politics’.
31 Cheng, ‘China and U.S. Anti-piracy.’
32 Reuters, ‘Iran, China and Russia’.
33 Muraviev, ‘Russia Wants to Be’.
34 Rovner and Talmadge, ‘Hegemony, Force Posture’.
35 Sarkar, ‘China and Quad 2.0’.
36 Gresh, ‘The Great Game at Sea’; Laskar, ‘UK’s Largest’.
37 Germond, ‘Global Britain’.
38 Rettman, ‘EU Eyes Indian Ocean’.
39 Shambaugh, ‘U.S.-China Rivalry’.
40 For a discussion and conceptualisation of militarisation dilemmas, see Schlichte, ‘Uganda’.
41 Jervis, ‘Cooperation under the Security Dilemma’; Jervis, ‘Was the Cold War’; Liff and Ikenberry, ‘Racing toward Tragedy?’
42 Bueger and Stockbruegger, ‘Pirates, Drugs and Navies’; Bueger, Larsen, and Schätzlein, ‘Towards a Maritime Security Architecture’.
43 Walker, ‘The Successes and Struggles’.
44 As reviewed in Bueger, Edmunds, and McCabe, Capacity Building for Maritime Security.
45 Tardy, Fighting Piracy.
46 For instance, France and Germany stopped attending the meetings and less and less countries are represented at ambassadorial level.
47 CGPCS, 19th Communique and the subsequent concluding documents of the group.
48 CGPCS, 24th Communique.
49 CGPCS, 2022 Strategic Framework.
50 Percy, ‘Counter-Piracy’, 273.
51 Ibid.: 271.
52 See Percy, ‘Counter-Piracy’; Bueger, ‘Experimenting in Global Governance’.
53 Rory and Faucon, ‘Iran, U.A.E. Discuss Maritime Security’.
54 Bisley and Taylor, ‘China’s Engagement’.
55 Mearsheimer, ‘Bound to Fail’.
56 Ibid.
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Notes on contributors
Christian Bueger
Christian Bueger is professor of international relations at the University of Copenhagen and honorary professor at the University of Seychelles. He is also a research fellow at the University of Stellenbosch and one of the directors of the SafeSeas network. In his research he focuses on maritime security and ocean governance.
Jan Stockbruegger
Jan Stockbruegger is a is a postdoctoral Dean’s Faculty Fellow at the Department of Political Science at Brown University and an affiliate at the Climate Solution Lab at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs. His research focuses on maritime security, ocean governance and order-building at sea.