Structural reliability theory in the context of structural safety

Abstract

This article discusses the role of structural reliability theory in the wider context of structural safety and its role as part of safety in the community generally. It commences by noting that the rules for the design of structures have advanced from ‘factor of safety’ to more rational procedures, including the use of structural reliability theory. It is common practice, for this theory can be considered somewhat in isolation from the wider perspective of societal expectations of structural engineering. In this context, there remain a number of issues for clarification, including how the structural probability measures relate to observations about failures of actual structures. Some of these concerns can be addressed through the adoption of a more clearly defined decision-theoretic framework adapted to structural engineering safety issues. The components for such a framework are outlined herein. It is argued also that structural engineering safety and reliability measures must be part of the wider perspective of societal risk and safety assessment, and therefore must be compatible with procedures adopted for other potentially hazardous industries.

Keywords:

• Probability
• Structures
• Safety
• Safety policy
• Acceptance criteria
• Philosophy

Acknowledgements

The author is indebted to all three reviewers for their helpful criticisms and observations. Many but not all have been acted upon in an effort to add clarity and to improve the scope of the argument. Nevertheless, in the words of one reviewer: ‘(There are) … many statements with which I disagree.’ ‘(This is) … to be expected in any discussion of philosophical issues.’ The text as it now stands is presented in this spirit—certainly not as ‘the last word’ on the topic.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

R. E. Melchers

Email: [email protected]