Investigation of the impact of global warming on precipitation pattern of Saudi Arabia

Abstract

This study has been carried out to forecast the impact of global warming on the precipitation pattern of Saudi Arabia by the end of year 2100. Simulation has been done using EdGCM model software (with available 8×10 resolution) developed at Columbia University on which there have been produced global precipitation maps for the seasonal and annual averages for the last 5 years (2096–2100). For each map, EdGCM grid values surrounding Saudi Arabia are used as input to one of the tools of Eagle point software called surface modelling (SM). SM is a new approach for downscaling global climate model results. SM software modelled out isohyets at 0.2 mm/day interval. The results indicate that the present pattern of precipitation (more in winter and less in summer) is going to change by almost equal occurrence of precipitation in all seasons for double_CO₂ (2CO₂) experiment. The 2CO₂ experiment indicates an increase of about 16.05% over the annual average precipitation across the country.

Keywords:

• precipitation
• EdGCM
• downscaling
• surface modelling
• isohyets
• GHGs

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the efforts made by Mark Chandler and the EdGCM cooperative at Columbia University who made EdGCM software available for environmental and climatic studies. This paper is based on the results reproduced by running EdGCM model software for the years 1958–2100. We also acknowledge the contributions made by National Agromet Center (NAMC) of Saudi Arabia Meteorological Department with whose help this study became fruitful to reach at some conclusions. NAMC provided weather data for 1970–2007. Efforts made by Mr Mohammad Walid (student of UET, Taxila, Pakistan) and his father, Engr Hecham Al Zoubi, for collection of data from Saudi Arabia are highly acknowledged. Efforts of Mr Muhammad Hassan, MA English, are also acknowledged whose feedback helped us to make this paper better in language.