A fuzzy logic approach to model delays in construction projects using translational models

Abstract

The likelihood of a project delay is affected by different factors; thus, there is a pressing need to develop a method that estimates the likelihood of such a delay. In this paper, analysis of potential occurrences of delays, which are classified into procedural, enabling, and triggering causes, is performed using the fuzzy fault-tree analysis method. Subjective judgment expresses causes of delay and their respective degree of effectiveness which are analysed in this study. The fuzzy triangular model and translational models are employed in this study. The severity of the likelihood of the project delay is the result of this analysis. A model was developed to assess the likelihood of the project delay. Evaluation of the model was performed for applicability and adequacy of the model. On average, evaluation performed by independent construction engineers and fuzzy logic experts produced satisfactory results.

Keywords:

• construction delay
• fault-tree analysis
• fuzzy fault-tree analysis
• fuzzy logic
• fuzzy set
• fuzzy translational models
• project delay

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge Ann Weaver Hart, who edited this paper. Our thanks also go to the experts who were willing to spend their time and effort to validate this model, resulting in a considerably better one.