Risk analysis in paving operations using discrete event simulation: a case study of Taiwan permeable asphalt concrete pavement pilot road project

ABSTRACT

The simulation model used in this study is based on a construction project in Taiwan. In this study, STROBOSCOPE and EZStrobe were used as discrete-event simulation software to assess the potential risk of the construction in terms of time and cost. The construction process, the unit cost of the resources, and the operation time of each activity were modelled based on the actual construction procedure. A total of 30 replications was required for each scenario. Scenarios with real-world data inputs and eight other models were simulated using the software. The best scenario with the lowest cost and competitive time was selected as the base model for a sensitivity analysis. During the Sensitivity Analysis, the best model 8-R was generated by changing the number of labourers to 13 and Excavators to 3. Compared to the real-world project, the total costs were reduced by 11% and the total time was reduced by 58%. Moreover, the result of risk analysis based on scenario 8-R demonstrated that using a number of labourers, trucks, excavators, rollers, millers, and pavers less than the quantities that were used in the real-world data, the associated risk in term of cost and time will exceed the real-world project cost.

KEYWORDS:

• Discrete event simulation
• STROBOSCOPE
• EZStrobe
• risk analysis

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.