Skid resistance deterioration model at the network level using Markov chains

ABSTRACT

Safety studies have indicated that low skid resistance increases crash risk. Because of this reason, transportation agencies have considered managing pavement skid resistance as one of the important means to reduce crashes. This management includes understanding the skid resistance deterioration process. The objective of this paper is to model the deterioration of pavement skid resistance at the network level using a Markov Chain process. The proposed methodology is composed of three steps: (a) pre-processing the pavement skid resistance data, (b) developing the Markov Chain deterioration model, and (c) validating the developed deterioration model. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology, a numerical case study was conducted using a sample of highway sections that comprise 564 lane-miles in Texas. Findings from the numerical analysis show that the Markov Chain process can be effectively used to model the deterioration of pavement skid resistance at the network level. The developed methodology process can be used by state and local agencies to predict deterioration rates of pavement skid resistance and estimate skid resistance budget needs.

KEYWORDS:

• Skid
• skid deterioration
• skid number
• Markov chain
• transition probability matrix
• deterioration model

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.