Factors affecting low-temperature cracking of asphalt pavements: analysis of field observations using the ordered logistic model

ABSTRACT

Accurate identification of factors that primarily affect the number of low-temperature cracks is crucial for selection of road materials and planning of pavement maintenance. Field investigations of low-temperature cracks were performed in the years 2014 and 2020 on the same 68 road sections being in service in typical traffic conditions. The collected data were statistically analysed using the ordered logistic regression model. Comparison of the odds ratios which were calculated on the basis of the model enabled ordering of the selected factors from those having the greatest effect on low-temperature cracking of pavements to those with the least influence: (1) pavement age, (2) type of asphalt concrete, (3) modification of bitumen, (4) climatic zone (on the basis of low performance grade temperature). The odds of a section belonging to the group of cracked sections decreased by half when a polymer-modified bitumen was used in its binder course and asphalt base. Regardless of the considered factors, the odds of a pavement section being classified into the group of heavily cracked sections are comparable. It means that some external factors, including quality of paving works and bitumen chemistry, may prove the most crucial.

KEYWORDS:

• Low-temperature cracking
• performance grade
• logistic regression
• field investigations
• pavement maintenance
• asphalt concrete

Acknowledgement

It is gratefully acknowledged that the field investigation and its statistical analysis were performed in a research project sponsored by Polish National Science Centre under the grant Miniatura 3, grant id. 2019/03/X/ST8/00338.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability

The data presented in this study are openly available in repository: Investigation of Low-Temperature Cracks on Selected National Roads and Motorways in Poland 2020, Bridge of Data. Gdansk University of Technology at doi:10.34808/an8a-3k90.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Polish National Science Centre: [Grant Number Miniatura 3 no. 2019/03/X/ST8/00338].