The Regional Security Implications of the East Asian Crisis: The Challenge of Uneven Development

Abstract

The effects of the East Asian economic crisis will be felt for some time to come. In particular, the uneven economic impact of the crisis raises important questions about the capacity of states to undertake remedial measures to their individual economies while at the same time ensuring that regional security in East Asia is maintained. Like the causes and consequences of the economic crisis, its security implications are likely to be wide ranging. One of the few strategic certainties of the crisis is that regional security in East Asia will become more fluid in the short to medium term. The central argument of this article is that the regional crisis has cast further doubt over the capacity of East Asian states to successfully manage security affairs during the next decade or so. Even if the implications of the economic crisis do not alter the regional security balance in any fundamental sense, the effects of accentuated uneven economic development will pose an additional problem for states in their attempts to cooperatively manage adverse security challenges in the region. This will be especially evident in North East Asia, where the potential for inter-state conflict is greatest and where the foundations for multilateral security are weakest.