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Abstract
Even if the international mood in favour of steep US and Russian nuclear cuts was to last, it is unlikely to spread to Asia, where nuclear arsenals remain comparatively modest and where regional allies rely on Washington for extended deterrence. This does not render nuclear arms control irrelevant in Asia, where there is a modest but significant tradition based on informal and unilateral restraint rather than formal agreement. But as more of Asia's nuclear programs have come out of the closet and as great power relationships intensify, the region needs to look nuclear arms control more squarely in the eye. For arms control to have real purchase in tomorrow's Asia, China and the USA will need to look beyond their currently asymmetrical relationship and find an understanding based on increased nuclear transparency which also restrains their potentially escalatory competition in advanced conventional war-fighting abilities.
Notes
1. This article is the first in a series of publications from a project on arms control and nuclear non-proliferation supported by a John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Asia Security Initiative study coordinated at the Australian National University by William Tow and John Ravenhill. The author is grateful to Rajesh Basrur, Rory Medcalf, Fiona Cunningham, Zhu Feng, Ken Jimbo, Stephan Frühling, Andrew O'Neil, Robert Ross, Christine Leah, Muthiah Alagappa and two anonymous reviewers for comments on earlier versions of this article.
2. The analysis in this article focuses on the nuclear dynamics of an Asian region which includes the countries of North Asia, South Asia and South-East Asia, and the two non-Asian powers which have made leading contributions to the region's nuclear balance: the USA and Russia.