A Framework for Assessing the Reliability of Software Project Status Reports

Abstract

In this article, we propose a probabilistic model that accounts for project manager fallibility in determining project status, and the tendency of project managers to slant the status to be better than that actually perceived. We call the fallibility in determining status error, the tendency to slant perceived status bias, and the combined effect distortion. The results indicate that distortion can produce very large differences between true and reported status. In addition, the results indicate that the magnitude of this distortion is heavily influenced by the level of bias applied by the project manager. This investigation supports the notion that the reliability of status reports is not only dependent upon the skills of the project manager, but also on the culture of the organization. The model also provides a framework for further investigating status report reliability through empirical studies to determine error and bias estimates.