Application of Dempster-Shafer Theory in Aircraft Maintenance Time Assessment: A Case Study

Abstract:

The goal of this case study is to demonstrate the use of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence as a decision aid to predict aircraft maintenance times during Turkish Air Force wartime tactical operations. A questionnaire was administered to aircraft maintenance experts to investigate maintenance times of major aircraft failure modes (ignition, fuel, and electrical). An example examining jet engine aircraft failure is presented to demonstrate use of the developed approach. The results of this methodology provide a useful and specific application area for the Dempster-Shafer Theory to aid a decision maker in making wartime tactical decisions.

Keywords::

• Dempster-Shafer Theory
• Decision Support
• Expert Judgment
• Expert Elicitation
• Evidence Theory