Impact of Wal-Mart on Market Share in a Rural Grocery Market: An Application of the Markov Chain Model

Abstract

With Americans spending up to 13% of their income on grocery shopping, smart shopping can help a typical family save. Many scholars have studied the effects on market share and profits from changing market share using the Markov model, and also studied the competitive strategies of grocery retailers under these conditions. While the forecast of the steady state is highly useful, examining the transition periods before the steady state is reached is also useful. In these transition periods, a retailer may opt for a new competitive strategy; therefore, the transition periods may provide greater insight into the dynamics of the competitive response. More attention should be paid to the revenues for groceries in transition periods before a steady state is reached—especially in markets dominated by retail giants, such as Wal-Mart. This study attempts to model that phenomenon and to explore appropriate competitive strategies.

KEYWORDS:

• grocery
• Markov chain
• Wal-Mart