Organizing For Risk Oriented Climate Alteration Research

Abstract

The ubiquity in effects and complexity of modern environmental issues requires careful consideration of focused research to insure that answers to key policy oriented questions are obtained. Broad-based, unstructured research programs have proven to be inefficient instruments for characterizing risks from environmental stress. Both the expense and the importance of timeliness of information preclude a traditional “bottom-up” approach to research. Instead, a more “top-down” organized approach that links the natural and socioeconomic sciences has advantages to support environmental risk assessment and research prioritization of climate alteration. Early examples of analysis using an integrating framework for risk assessment focus on the need for research on human interactions and the environmental damage function in addition to the basic earth sciences. Nonlinearities in environmental impact of climate change, and uncertainties in the extent of growth of energy efficiencies, are seen to be key unknowns in the risk assessment of climate alternatives. To date, earth science research has not been structured well for environmental risk assessment of the climate change question. The U.S. national research program aimed at risk assessment of climate alteration is examined as an example. The examination suggests that the present conceptual plan falls short of an optimum structure derived from exploitation of an integrating framework, even though it is rich in scientific strength and diversity. To strengthen its public value and accessibility, the research program could account in its planning for prioritized needs defined by an integrating analysis for risk assessment and management.