Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Modeling and Prediction of Ambient Ozone Concentrations

ABSTRACT

The deterministic modeling of ambient O₃ concentrations is difficult because of the complexity of the atmospheric system in terms of the number of chemical species; the availability of accurate, time-resolved emissions data; and the required rate constants. However, other complex systems have been successfully approximated using artificial neural networks (ANNs). In this paper, ANNs are used to model and predict ambient O₃ concentrations based on a limited number of measured hydrocarbon species, NO_x compounds, temperature, and radiant energy. In order to examine the utility of these approaches, data from the Coastal Oxidant Assessment for Southeast Texas (COAST) program in Houston, TX, have been used. In this study, 53 hydrocarbon compounds, along with O₃, nitrogen oxides, and meteorological data were continuously measured during summer 1993. Steady-state ANN models were developed to examine the ability of these models to predict current O₃ concentrations from measured VOC and NO concentrations. To predict the future concentrations of O₃, dynamic models were also explored and were used for extraction of chemical information such as reactivity estimations for the VOC species.

The steady-state model produced an approximation of O₃ data and demonstrated the functional relationship between O₃ and VOC-NO_x concentrations. The dynamic models were able to the adequately predict the O₃ concentration and behavior of VOC-NO_x-O₃ system a number of hourly intervals into the future. For 3 hr into the future, O₃ concentration could be predicted with a root-mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.21 ppb. Extending the models further in time led to an RMSE of 11.46 ppb for 5-hr-ahead values. This prediction capability could be useful in determining when control actions are needed to maintain measured concentrations within acceptable value ranges.