Prediction in Situation Awareness: Confidence Bias and Underlying Cognitive Abilities

Abstract

Sixteen military fighter pilots performed and air combat simulation, where their Levels 1, 2, and 3 situational awareness (SA) was assessed using the Situation Awareness Global Assessment Technique (SAGAT). Their confidence levels on SA were also elicited to derive overconfidence scores. The pilots had the lowest accuracy and highest overconfidence in their answers to prediction questions (Level 3 SA). The cognitive abilities associated with prediction were different from those associated with the lower levels of SA, in which a math aptitude (reasoning) test was highly associated with prediction. Through regression analysis, we found that both prediction and overconfidence bias were significant predictors of pilots' performance measured by mission survivability.