A test of the fit of Gulliver's phase model to hostage negotiations

Abstract

This study tests the fit of Gulliver's (1979) phase model of negotiation development to authentic and simulated hostage negotiations. Interaction analysis and phase mapping techniques were used to create phase map descriptions of a set of eight authentic and eight simulated hostage negotiations. Gamma analysis (Pelz, 1985) was used to abstract the general structure of each negotiation from its detailed phase map. Gamma maps were compared to Gulliver's model and to each other. Results suggest that hostage negotiations vary in their resemblance to Gulliver's model. Simulated negotiations performed as police training exercises were most similar to Gulliver's model, while authentic cases bore the least resemblance to the model. Events and characteristics that may lead to the differences are illustrated in excerpts from the negotiations.