Empty Neighborhoods: Using Constructs to Predict the Probability of Housing Abandonment

Abstract

Housing abandonment contributes to neighborhood decline. It is a significant problem, especially in places facing population loss. One approach for dealing with abandonment is to prevent it from occurring in the first place. However, before we can implement successful prevention efforts, it is necessary to better understand what abandonment is and what factors predict it. Therefore, to assist planners and policymakers in allocating scarce resources, this study has three objectives. The first is to determine whether there are constructs that underlie abandonment. The second is to see whether those constructs predict abandonment. The third is to examine whether the effects of the constructs on the probability of abandonment are the same for two cities. The study finds that abandonment consists of four constructs: market conditions, gentrification, physical neglect, and socioeconomic conditions. The first three of these significantly predict the probability of a house being abandoned. The study also finds that the effects are similar for the two cities of interest.

Keywords:

• abandoned property
• community development
• urban planning
• vacancy rates

Notes

^1. Income is not directly used because the Census Bureau provides income information in brackets but does not provide average income per neighborhood. Although it is possible to examine income by creating a separate dummy variable for each income bracket, that would significantly increase the number of variables in the study and decrease the degrees of freedom available for statistical tests. I could combine brackets to reduce the number of variables, but then I would have to decide which ones to combine and why. Because of this complication and the support for inclusion of poverty as a predictor of abandonment, the variable percentage of residents per neighborhood who are in poverty is included in this study instead.