Preparing for unwanted events: Instances of international political terrorism∗

This research was supported in part by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Department of Defense and was monitored by ONR under contract no. N00014–75‐C‐0846. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the author and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency or the U.S. Government.

Abstract

The problems posed by international political terrorism, the likely performances of governments facing such challenges, and advisable preparatory coping strategies all benefit from systematic consideration of the experience, provided by practices and analyses of attempts to avoid and manage other forms of international crises. This paper pursues such a perspective to supplement more familiar approaches that use police and disaster amelioration points of departure.

The broader experience of international crises makes it clear that the problems are less ones of incident management than of prolonged competition for an image of political legitimacy and efficacy. Accordingly, recommendation for analysis and planning are made with emphasis on inventory of existent management capacities and decision processes, clarification of alternative political consequences, nonintrusive technology fixes, bargaining and indemnification policy options; and diagnostic gaming.

Notes

This research was supported in part by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Department of Defense and was monitored by ONR under contract no. N00014–75‐C‐0846. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the author and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency or the U.S. Government.