Who is the Lone Terrorist? A Study of Vehicle-Borne Attackers in Israel and the West Bank

ABSTRACT

Lone actor terrorism has become a significant challenge for Western democracies. Previous studies have failed to point out a comprehensive profile of lone terrorists, and suggested that examining more specific sub-groups of lone actors, sharing contextual factors or ideology, may produce such a profile. The current study examines the sub-group of vehicle-borne lone terrorists, who committed their attacks in Israel and the West Bank between January 2000 and March 2016. Based on confidential and open-source data, we find that general sociodemographic characteristics did not produce a unique profile of attackers. However, a deeper examination of behavioral factors preceding the attack yields common traits. Specifically, we find that previous experience—both in different forms of unlawful behavior and in training related to the attack method—was significantly related to a successful attack. Similarities in regards to the triggers for the attack and personal motivations also emerge, suggesting that while operating independently, lone actors are very much influenced by ongoing events. We conclude that focusing on a sub-group of lone attackers following a spatio-methodological-oriented approach contributes to the construction of a profile for lone terrorists, and discuss these findings in the context of mitigation.

Funding

This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 608354.

Notes

1. Anthony Bond, “Nice Terrorist Attack: ISIS Leader Told Supporters to ‘Run over the Filthy French’ in Chilling Threat,” The Mirror, 15 July 2016.

2. Paul Gill, Lone-Actor Terrorists: A Behavioural Analysis (New York: Routledge, 2015).

3. Some examples are: Edwin Bakker and Beatrice De Graaf, “Preventing Lone Wolf Terrorism: Some CT Approaches Addressed,” Perspectives on Terrorism 5(5–6) (2011); Ramón Spaaij, “The Enigma of Lone Wolf Terrorism: An Assessment,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 33(9) (2010), pp. 854–870; Ramon Spaaij, Understanding Lone Wolf Terrorism: Global Patterns, Motivations and Prevention (Springer Science & Business Media, New York, NY, 2011); Ramón Spaaij and Mark S. Hamm, “Key Issues and Research Agendas in Lone Wolf Terrorism,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(3) (2015), pp. 167–178; Jason-Leigh Striegher, “Early Detection of the Lone Wolf: Advancement of Counter-Terrorism Investigations with an Absence or Abundance of Information and Intelligence,” Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism 8(1) (2013), pp. 35–53; Gabriel Weimann, “Lone Wolves in Cyberspace,” Journal of Terrorism Research 3(2) (2012). doi: http://doi.org/10.15664/jtr.405

4. Gill, Lone-Actor, p. 26.

5. See Randy Borum, Robert Fein, and Bryan Vossekuil, “A Dimensional Approach to Analyzing Lone Offender Terrorism,” Aggression and Violent Behavior 17(5) (2012): 389–396.

6. See for example Paul, Gill, John Horgan, and Paige Deckert, “Bombing Alone: Tracing the Motivations and Antecedent Behaviors of Lone-Actor Terrorists,” Journal of Forensic Sciences 59(2) (2014), pp. 425–435; Petter Nesser, “Research Note: Single Actor Terrorism: Scope, Characteristics and Explanations,” Perspectives on Terrorism 6(6) (2012).

7. Fred Burton and Scott Stewart, The Lone Wolf Disconnect (Terrorism Intelligence Report-STRATFOR, 2008).

8. Bakker and De Graaf, “Preventing Lone-Wolf Terrorism,” pp. 43–50.

9. Ibid., pp. 43–50; Marc Sageman, Understanding Terror Networks (Philadephia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2004). “Preventing Lone-Wolf Terrorism,” pp.

10. Bakker and De Graaf, “Preventing Lone-Wolf Terrorism,” pp. 43–50; Borum, Fein, and Vossekuil, “A Dimensional Approach to Analyzing Lone Offender Terrorism,”; Rik Coolsaet, ed., Jihadi Terrorism and the Radicalisation Challenge: European and American Experiences (New York: Routledge, 2016).

11. Gill, Lone-Actor, p. 26.

12. Bakker and De Graaf, “Preventing Lone-Wolf Terrorism,” pp. 43–50; Gill, Horgan, and Deckert, “Bombing Alone”; Clark McCauley and Sophia Moskalenko, Friction: How Radicalization Happens to Them and Us (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011); Clark McCauley and Sophia Moskalenko, “Toward a Profile of Lone Wolf Terrorists: What Moves an Individual from Radical Opinion to Radical Action,” Terrorism and Political Violence 26(1) (2014), pp. 69–85.

13. It is important to note that firearms are very accessible and easy to come by in the United States, where most studies were conducted.

14. COT (ed.), “Lone-Wolf Terrorism.” Case Study for Work Package 3 “Citizens and Governance in a Knowledge-Based Society,” TTSRL, July 2007, cf: http://www.transnationalterrorism.eu/tekst/publications/Lone-Wolf%20Terrorism.pdf; David C. Rapoport, “The Four Waves of Modern Terrorism,” Attacking Terrorism: Elements of a Grand Strategy (2004), pp. 46–73; Spaaij, “The Enigma of Lone Wolf Terrorism,” pp. 854–870.

15. Spaaij and Hamm, “Key Issues and Research Agendas in Lone Wolf Terrorism,” pp. 167–178.

16. Ibid., pp. 167–178.

17. Gill, Horgan, and Deckert, “Bombing Alone,” pp. 425–435; Michael King and Donald M. Taylor, “The Radicalization of Homegrown Jihadists: A Review of Theoretical Models and Social Psychological Evidence,” Terrorism and Political Violence 23(4) (2011), pp. 602–622; Harvey W. Kushner, The Future of Terrorism: Violence in the New Millennium (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 1997); Lorenzo Vidino, “Homegrown Jihadist Terrorism in the United States: A New and Occasional Phenomenon?,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 32(1) (2009), pp. 1–17.

18. Emily Corner and Paul Gill, “A False Dichotomy? Mental Illness and Lone-Actor Terrorism,” Law and Human Behavior 39(1) (2015), p. 23.

19. Bakker and De Graaf, “Preventing Lone-Wolf Terrorism,” pp. 43–50; Jeff Gruenewald, Steven Chermak, and Joshua D. Freilich, “Distinguishing ‘Loner’ Attacks from other Domestic Extremist Violence,” Criminology & Public Policy 12(1) (2013), pp. 65–91; Sophia Moskalenko and Clark McCauley, “The Psychology of Lone-Wolf Terrorism,” Counselling Psychology Quarterly 24(2) (2011), pp. 115–126; Jonathan Rae, “Will it ever be Possible to Profile the Terrorist?,” Journal of Terrorism Research 3(2) (2012).

20. Gill, Horgan, and Deckert, “Bombing Alone,” pp. 425–435.

21. Bakker and De Graaf, “Preventing Lone-Wolf Terrorism,” pp. 43–50; Gill, Lone-Actor, p. 120; Gill, Horgan, and Deckert, “Bombing Alone,” pp. 425–435.

22. Bakker and De Graaf, “Preventing Lone-Wolf Terrorism,” pp. 43–50.

23. Steven M. Chermak, Joshua D. Freilich, William S. Parkin, and James P. Lynch, “American Terrorism and Extremist Crime Data Sources and Selectivity Bias: An Investigation Focusing on Homicide Events Committed by Far-Right Extremists,” Journal of Quantitative Criminology 28(1) (2012), pp. 191–218; Andrew Silke, “The Devil You Know: Continuing Problems with Research on Terrorism,” Terrorism and Political Violence 13(4) (2001), pp. 1–14.

24. For example, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, “Lone Wolf Islamic Terrorism: Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad (Carlos Bledsoe) Case Study,” Terrorism and Political Violence 26(1) (2014), pp. 110–128; McCauley and Moskalenko, “Toward a Profile,” pp. 69–85.

25. Gill, Lone-Actor, p. 26; Gill, Horgan and Deckert, “Bombing Alone,” pp. 425–435.

26. Gill, Horgan, and Deckert, “Bombing Alone,” p. 433.

27. Borum, Fein, and Vossekuil, “A Dimensional Approach to Analyzing Lone Offender Terrorism,”

28. Sageman, Understanding Terror Networks.

29. For example, online communities.

30. McCauley and Moskalenko, “Toward a Profile of Lone Wolf Terrorists,” pp. 69–85.

31. Bakker and De Graaf, “Preventing Lone-Wolf Terrorism,” pp. 43–50.

32. Raffaello Pantucci, A Typology of Lone Wolves: Preliminary Analysis of Lone Islamist Terrorists (London, England: International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence, 2011).

33. For example, tragedy or a need to revenge.

34. Pantucci, A Typology of Lone Wolves, p. 8.

35. Gill, Lone-Actor, p. 120.

36. Jeanine De Roy van Zuijdewijn and Edwin Bakker, “Analysing Personal Characteristics of Lone-Actor Terrorists: Research Findings and Recommendations,” Perspectives on Terrorism 10(2) (2016).

37. Ronald Victor Gemuseus Clark and Graeme R. Newman, Outsmarting the Terrorists (Greenwood Publishing Group, 2006).

38. Marcus Felson and Ronald V. Clarke, “Opportunity Makes the Thief,” Police Research Series 98 (CA: Roxbusy, 1998); Ronald Victor Gemuseus Clarke and Derek B. Cornish, “Rational Choice: Explaining Criminals and Crime Essays” (2001).

39. Joshua D. Freilich and Steven M. Chermak, “Preventing Deadly Encounters between Law Enforcement and American Far-Rightists,” Crime Prevention Studies 25(1) (2009), pp. 141–172; Leslie W. Kennedy, Applying Crime Theory to Terrorism Research: Contemporary Issues in Criminal Justice Policy (Belmont, CA: Wadsworth Cengage Learning, 2010), pp. 129–131.

40. Borum, Fein, and Vossekuil, “A Dimensional Approach to Analyzing Lone Offender Terrorism,”pp. 389–396.

41. Clarke and Newman, Outsmarting the Terrorists, pp. 31–41.

42. For example, Gary A. Ackerman and Lauren E. Pinson, “An Army of One: Assessing CBRN Pursuit and Use by Lone Wolves and Autonomous Cells,” Terrorism and Political Violence 26(1) (2014), pp. 226–245; Gill, Horgan, and Deckert, “Bombing Alone,” pp. 425–435.

43. The complete list of events is presented in the Appendix.

44. Gill, Lone-Actor, p. 120.

45. In Israel, court files are open to the public, and can often be accessed online.

46. “The Use of the Internet for Terrorist Purposes,” United Nations (2012). Available at http://www.unodc.org/documents/frontpage/Use_of_Internet_for_Terrorist_Purposes.pdf (accessed 13 March 2016).

47. Thomas J. Holt, “Exploring the Intersections of Technology, Crime, and Terror,” Terrorism and Political Violence 24(2) (2012), pp. 337–354; Gartenstein-Ross, “Lone Wolf Islamic Terrorism,” pp. 110–128; Andre Oboler, “Google Earth: A New Platform for Anti-Israel Propaganda and Replacement Geography,” Jerusalem Centre for Public Affairs 8(5) (2008), p. 26; Weimann, “Lone Wolves,” pp. 75–90.

48. Gill, Horgan and Deckert, “Bombing Alone,” pp. 425–435.

49. We can assume that the level of education is also correlated to the employment of most of the vehicle-borne attackers as professional drivers.

50.  

51. Jeff Victoroff, “The Mind of the Terrorist: A Review and Critique of Psychological Approaches,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(1) (2005), pp. 3–42.

52. Bakker and De Graaf, “Preventing Lone-Wolf Terrorism,” pp. 43–50; Corner and Gill, “A False Dichotomy,” p. 23.

53. J. Reid Meloy and Paul Gill, “The Lone-Actor Terrorist and the TRAP-18,” Journal of Threat Assessment and Management 3(1) (2016), p. 37. Raffaello Pantucci, “What have We Learned about Lone Wolves from Anders Behring Breivik?,” Perspectives on Terrorism 5(5–6) (2011).

54. Gill, Horgan, and Deckert, “Bombing Alone,” pp. 425–435.

55. Ibid.

56. Spaaij and Hamm, “Key Issues and Research Agendas in Lone Wolf Terrorism,” pp. 167–178.