Of horseshoes and horse races: Experimental studies of the impact of poll results on electoral behavior

Abstract

The article examines the impact of poll results on voter support for candidates. An experimental design was used to manipulate candidates' level of support in reputable opinion polls. The poll results were presented in a television newscast. The effects of the poll‐related news report were assessed with regard to voters' intention to vote, their assessments of the candidates' prospects, and their voting preference. Our results indicate that exposure to poll results influences individuals' preferences significantly (people become more positive toward the leading candidate) but not their intention to vote.

Keywords:

• bandwagon effects
• electoral momentum
• horse race coverage
• opinion polls