Ethnic diversity and its spatial change in Latvia, 1897–2011

Abstract

Utilizing data from five census enumerations of Latvia (including the most recent 2011 census), this study analyzes temporal and spatial trends in ethnic diversity in the country at the national and municipal levels. The measure employed, the ethnic diversity index (EDI), makes possible a more sophisticated interpretation of the dynamics of ethnic diversity than an analysis of the changing percentage shares of Latvia's various ethnic groups over time. At the national level, a trend of declining ethnic diversity prior to Latvia's incorporation into the Soviet Union was followed by a rapid increase during the Soviet period, before the onset of gradually decreasing diversity during the post-Soviet period. These national-level trends obscure a number of trends evident at the municipal level, including salient (depending on the period) ethnic diversity gradients Rīga–Latvia, cities/towns–countryside, and the east–west. Latvia remains one of the most ethnically diverse countries of Europe, and the study outlines some of the implications of the recent stagnation of regional EDIs at rather high levels for the economic and political life of the country.

Keywords:

• Latvia
• Baltic
• post-Soviet
• ethnic
• diversity
• multiethnic
• multicultural
• 20th century

Acknowledgements

Research was supported by the Hungarian Scholarship Board, the Erasmus Lifelong Learning Program, and SROP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0029, supporting scientific training of talented youth at the University of Pécs. The research was conducted within the framework of TÁMOP 4.2.4.A/2-11-1-2012-0001 “National Excellence Program – Elaborating and Operating a Domestic Student and Researcher Personal Support System.” The project was subsidized by the European Union and co-financed by the European Social Fund.

Notes

^1. In Central Europe, Bajmócy (2009, 65–72) and Reményi (2009, 122–129) have recently started to use a similar index extensively in human geography.

^2. In Latvia, Pēteris Zvidriņš and Ilmārs Mežs used an index of ethnic diversity previously, but mentioned only its summary national values (Zvidriņš and Vanovska 1992; Mežs 1994a, 17). Although spatial changes in ethnic diversity at the district level were also analyzed in the past by the present author and a colleague (Németh and Šolks 2012), that study can be considered a relatively short overview rather than a detailed investigation. Thus, this study, which analyzes the spatial microstructure of diversity using the latest population data available (i.e., using municipal-level ethnic data including results from the latest population census of Latvia in 2011), can be considered a major new development in the human geography literature.

^3. I avoid further use of the term “ethno-linguistic fractionalization index” here, as one's mother tongue, although generally an important component, does not necessarily determine ethnic identity (it is enough to think of the examples of Ireland or Bosnia–Herzegovina). The renaming of the index, therefore, avoids reference to mother tongue and strictly considers the ethnic data of the censuses.

^4. On the costs and benefits of ethnic fragmentation and the policy issues arising in diverse societies, see Alesina and Ferrara (2004).

^5. Even Will Kymlicka, the eminent representative of liberal multiculturalism, acknowledges that ethnocultural differences can remain a potential source of conflict for Western democracies, where the values of democracy, economic prosperity, and personal tolerance have already been created (Kymlicka 1998, 319). Moreover, the potential for conflict in itself can have harmful economic effects too, because instability and uncertainty usually reduce investment (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005, 308). On the relationship between ethnic divisions and conflicts, see Horowitz (1985), Gurr (1993), Collier and Hoeffler (1998), VanHanen (1999), and Fearon and Laitin (2000) among others.

^6. During the Soviet period, ethnic data for Latvia were accessible only to privileged specialists and only by districts. The first USSR census to contain ethnic data by municipality was the final all-USSR census of 1989.

^7. The Abrene district, established in 1925, lost about 30% of its territory when the eastern portion of the district was transferred to the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic in 1944.

^8. On primordialist, constructivist, prototypical, and other approaches to the study of these concepts, see Smith (1991) or Collier and Mahon (1993).

^9. A classic example is the case of the Polish ethnic minority in Latgale during the interwar period: their numbers during the period 1925–1930–1935 rose from 25,000 to 30,000, and then dropped to 19,000. Inasmuch as such a high amplitude of variation cannot be explained by data on migration and natural reproduction, political factors must also have been at work.

^10. In Latgale – the most typical example of a Baltic–Slavic ethnic contact zone (Strods 1989) – the Ilūkste district is a particular focus of attention. It was the most diverse area not only in the Baltic region but also presumably in all of Europe. In 1897, its population was 29% Latvian, 18% Belarusian, 16% Polish, 15% Russian, 11% Lithuanian, 9% Jewish, and 2% other.

^11. In April 1915, the entire Jewish population of Kurzeme (ca. 40,000 persons) was deported to the interior of Russia (Lipschitz 2012).

^12. The German inhabitants of Irši settled there in the 1760s and the German colony existed until 1939 (“Iršu” 2005).

^13. The Liivs, or Livonians, are a Finnic people who are actively assimilating to Latvian. They reside primarily along the Baltic coast of Latvia northward to the entrance to the Gulf of Riga. By 1959, they numbered roughly 3000, only some 500 of which spoke Livonian (Wixman 1984, 128) – Ed., PSA.

^14. Due to their developed economies and higher living standards, Estonia and Latvia were especially attractive targets for Eastern Slavic immigrants; Soviet military garrisons were enlarged there as well. So many experts refer to an artificial “Russification” rather than a spontaneous migration process (e.g., Smith 1990, 62; Mežs 1994c, 12; Plakans 1995, 157).

^15. In the first half of the 1990s, most returned to their titular state (Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus) because of the economic crisis and the high rate of unemployment, a phenomena that most seriously affected the settlements with significant numbers of Eastern Slavic guest workers, as well as political changes, such as the imposition of relatively strict citizenship regulations in the Baltic states (Győri 2006; Lagzi 2008), and a liberal immigration regime in Russia, embodied in the 1991 citizenship law that allowed all former Soviet citizens a virtually automatic access to Russian citizenship (see Shevel 2012, 113).

^16. The industrial sector concentrated in Latvia's multiethnic cities stood to lose most from the economic and political changes stemming from Latvia's post-Soviet transition. This resulted in a high rate of unemployment and emigration, as well as the closure of Soviet military bases and facilities. Migration from districts located mostly in Latgale was significant, due to extremely high unemployment and very low levels of income (Krumins 2011).

^17. Note that these regions (shown in Figures 7 and 8) are not directly comparable with the historical regions shown in Figure 2, except perhaps for Latgale whose border changed only slightly during the twentieth century.

^18. According to Brown (1993), “an ethnic conflict is a situation in which two or more ethnic groups do not agree on a political, economic, social, cultural or territorial issue that is of importance in society.”