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ABSTRACT
Recent literature on authoritarian stability and legitimation has highlighted the role of propaganda and information control, national identity politics, participation technologies and other communication strategies autocrats use to shape public opinion. The authoritarian tool kit is, incomplete if we do not account for governance-related measures. Focusing on authoritarian social policy and contributing to the literature on the authoritarian welfare state, this study measures the political effects of unconditional and conditional cash transfers, specifically focusing on child subsidies, that the Russian government has increasingly integrated into its policy tools. Social policy and child support earn the government political dividends in terms of shoring up public support and have acquired added significance over the last few years. It is part of the current social pact that enables authoritarian resilience during Russia’s war against Ukraine and that is made possible by the actions at the federal, regional, and municipal levels of government.
Acknowldgement
I would like to thank the participants in the DC Area Postcommunist Politics Social Science Workshop based at George Washington University’s Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies (IERES), and participants in the workshop on Russian public opinion held at Princeton University for useful comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are my own.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
2. https://meduza.io/episodes/2023/04/06/rossiyskie-vlasti-snova-raportuyut-o-sokraschenii-bednosti-v-strane-e-e-e-no-ved-eto-zvuchit-kak-bred; https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poverty-level-russia-dropped-93–2023-says-statistics-service-2024-03-06/
4. This sum amounted to 14.5 average monthly salaries in Russia in 2012 (Borozdina et al., Citation2016).
8. It is important to note that the August 2021 ad hoc payments included not only child-related payments but also payments to pensioners and the military.
10. The sample includes only internet users, who may potentially differ from national representation. All online surveys would unfortunately have this caveat.
11. Admittedly, in earlier electoral cycles there were other electoral strategies to mobilize women’s turnout, such as family-focused TV ads or even pro-Putin songs. However, their effectiveness by 2021 is arguably considerably less (or even non-existent) than the persuasion through child support. The government’s increasing reliance on social benefits as a policy instrument underscores what is perceived by government officials as a more effective political strategy.
12. There is an anomalous case of a statistically significant negative effect on United Russia support found for those who received maternity capital in 2015. One potential explanation might be that children in families that received maternity capital in 2015 started going to school in 2021 (when the survey was conducted). Many of these families might have experienced some financial squeeze in this period or other changes that could have arguably spilled over onto voting preferences.