Russian Society: A Look at the Future (Material From a Roundtable Discussion)

ABSTRACT

On the eve of the 100th anniversary jubilee of the historic events of 1917, sociologists, political scientists, and economists offer their diagnoses of present-day Russian society. The events of recent years (the reunification of Crimea, the deterioration of the Russian Federation’s relations with Western countries, the imposition of sanctions and retaliatory countersanctions, the economic crisis, the replacement of the political leader of the United States, etc.) have not only altered the political and social context but have also produced changes in the social expectations of the country’s population. Studies in 2016¹ found an increase in anxious attitudes among Russians, yet the assessments of the situation in the country are nowhere near disastrous. The experts discuss not only the reasons for this phenomenon, but also the possibility that the economic crisis will develop into a political one. An attempt is made to determine the direction in which the political regime of today’s Russia will be transformed in the next few years. A forecast is made about the new challenges and threats that Russia may face in the next five to ten years. The economic and political trends that may take Russia to a new qualitative condition are analyzed. The experts arrive at the conclusion that the condition of Russian society today is stable, but the government’s lack of a strategic vision for the future may also lead to dramatic consequences.

KEYWORDS:

• economic crisis
• evolutionary development
• future
• political regime
• protest potential
• Russian society
• trends

This article is the republished version of:

Russian Society

Roundtable discussion participants

Svetlana Yur’evna Barsukova, doctor of sociology, professor, Higher School of Economics National Research University, editor-in-chief of the journal Mir Rossii ([email protected]); Leontiy Georgievich Byzov, candidate of economics, senior research fellow at the Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences ([email protected]); Mikhail Fedorovich Chernysh, doctor of sociology, first deputy director of the RAS Institute of Sociology ([email protected]); Vladislav Leonidovich Inozemtsev, doctor of economics, professor, Higher School of Economics National Research University, director of Center for Research on Postindustrial Society ([email protected]); Yurii Andreevich Krasin, doctor of philosophy, professor, chief research fellow at the RAS Institute of Sociology ([email protected]); Iurii Valer’evich Latov, doctor of sociology, senior research fellow of the RAS Institute of Sociology, professor at the Financial University under the RF Government ([email protected]); Boris Igorevich Makarenko, candidate of sociology, Higher School of Economics National Research University, chairman of the management board of the Center for Political Technologies ([email protected]); Elena Borisovna Shestopal, doctor of philosophy, professor, head of the Department of the Sociology and Psychology of Politics of the Political Science Division of Moscow State University ([email protected]); Natal’ia Evgen’evna Tikhonova, doctor of sociology, professor, Higher School of Economics National Research University, chief research fellow at the RAS Institute of Sociology ([email protected]). All are from Moscow, Russia.

Notes

^* Rosnano is a state-owned nanotechnology company.—Translator.

^† Skolkovo is a technological innovation center outside Moscow, known as the “Russian Silicon Valley.”—Translator.

^* An allusion to insurgency in predominantly Russian-speaking Eastern Ukraine, which Russia supports, against the central Ukrainian government.—Translator.

^* Dmitrii Kiselev is a conservative TV host known for his provocative political commentaries.—Translator.

^* A reference to large-scale agricultural capitalists in Germany.—Translator.

^* A reference to the relatively wealthy population in the industrially developed world.—Translator.

^* On May 14, 2016, a massive brawl, involving more than 200 people, broke out at the cemetery between individuals from the North Caucasus and others of Central Asian origin. Three people were killed and more than thirty injured.—Translator.

^* The Korean War actually began in 1950 and ended in 1953. South Korea became independent in 1948.—Translator.

1. See, for example, Gorshkov (2017).