“Crimean Syndrome”

Abstract

The rapid shift in mass public opinion among Russians after the annexation of Crimea is usually attributed to the success of official state propaganda. This article asks how this success was achieved, given that the popularity of Putin's regime had been falling for several years while the opposition had been gaining strength. The war enabled the regime to return poorly informed citizens to political life while serving as an excuse to repress regime opponents.

Notes

English translation © 2015 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC, from the Russian text © 2015 “Kontrapunkt.” “‘Krymskii sindrom’: mekhanizmy avtoritarnoi mobilizatsii,” Kontrapunkt, 2015, no. 1, pp. 1–18. Translated by Peter Golub. Color versions of one or more of the figures in the article can be found online at www.tandfonline.com/mrup.

^1. All the sociological data presented in this article are based on polls conducted by the Levada Center (before 2008 by VTsIOM [All-Russia Public Opinion Research Center]). Data were obtained from the Levada Center Internet site (www.levada.ru), from the Levada Center archives, and from the Unified Sociological Data Archive (www.sophist.hse.ru). For technical reasons, both weighted and unweighted data were used—the difference does not exceed 1.5 percentage points. I express my deep gratitude to Arina Borodina, Lev Gudkov, and Karina Pipia for their invaluable assistance.

^2. For more detail, see K.Y. Rogov, “Politicheskie tsikly postsovetskogo transzita,” Pro et Contra, 2012, nos. 4–5, p. 56.

^3. See E.A. Pain, “Ksenofobia i natsionalizm v epokhu rossiiskogo bezvremen'ia,” Pro et Contra, 2014, vol. 18, nos. 1–2; B.V. Dubin, “‘Chuzhie’ natsionalizmy i ‘svoi’ ksenofobii vcherashnikh i segodiashnikh rossian,” Pro et Contra, 2014, vol. 18, no. 1–2; M. Laruelle, “Alexei Navalny and Challenges in Reconciling ‘Nationalism’ and ‘Liberalism,’” Post-Soviet Affairs, 2014, vol. 30, no. 4, pp. 276–97.

^4. D. Treisman, “Putin's Popularity: Why Did Support for the Kremlin Plunge, Then Stabilize?” Post-Soviet Affairs, 2014, vol. 30, no. 5.

^5. Balance of payments data (www.cbr.ru/statistics) (all URLs accessed August 27, 2015).

^6. K.Iu. Rogov, “Resursnyi natsionalizm: Politekonomiia reaktsii,” Vedomosti, October 8, 2014 (www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2014/10/15/resursnyj-nacionalizm-ot-yukosa-do-kryma).

^7. L.D. Gudkov, “Ressentimentnyi nationalizm,” Vestik obshestvennogo mnenia, 2014, vol. 118, nos. 3–4.

^8. W.D. Baker and J.R. O'Neal, “Patriotism or Opinion Leadership? The Nature and Origins of the ‘Rally ’Round the Flag’ Effect,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2001, vol. 45, no. 5, pp. 661–87; and M.J. Hetherington and M. Nelson, “Anatomy of a Rally Effect: George W. Bush and the War on Terrorism,” Political Science and Politics, 2003, vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 37–42.

^9. A. Borodina, “Televizor Olimpiady i Ukrainy: rekordy propagandy,” Forbes online, July 3, 2014 (www.forbes.ru/mneniya-opinion/konkurentsiya/261539-televizor-olimpiady-i-ukrainy-rekordy-propagandy).

^10. S. Sobolev, “TNS zafiksirovala istoricheskii rekord interesa k telenovostiam,” RBK, November 20, 2014 (http://top.rbc.ru/technology_and_media/20/11/2014/546dff7bcbb20f48e98df5fa).

^11. See P. Converse, “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics,” in Ideology and Discontent, ed. D. Apter (New York: Free Press, 1964); J. Zaller. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992).

^12. See Gudkov, “Ressentimentnyi nationalism.”

^13. J. Zaller, Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion.

^14. Ibid.

^15. B. Geddes and J. Zaller, “Sources of Popular Support for Authoritarian Regimes,” American Journal of Political Science, 1989, vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 319–47.

^16. E. Noelle-Neumann, Obshchestvennoe mnenie: Otkrytie spirali molchaniia: Per. c nem. Obshch. Red. i predisl. Mansurova, N.S. (Moscow: Progress-Akademia, Ves’ Mir, 1996). [For English see: “The Spiral of Silence: A Theory of Public Opinion,” Journal of Communication, vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 43–51.]

^17. T. Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1995).

^18. L.D. Gudkov, “Na zerkalo necha peniat’, koli rozha kriva,” Vestnik obshchestvennogo mnenia, 2012, vol. 11, no. 1.