Economic Consequences of Changes in Russia’s Age Distribution During Demographic Waves

Abstract

The current changes in ratio of Russia’s main socioeconomic groups (working-age, youth, and elderly) are adversely impacting the country’s economic development. The purpose of this article is to reflect these changes during a demographic wave. To that end, we use official statistics and predicted population changes up to the year 2050. Our analysis shows that the number and share of the working-age population will decline, the elderly population will grow, and the youth population can either decrease or increase. This will lead to a decline in the number of people employed and to a significant increase in employment of the elderly, to a substantial demographic burden, and to a decrease both in standard of living and in volume of the domestic market.

Keywords:

• population age structure
• economic development
• demographic wave
• main socioeconomic groups
• demographic forecast

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Economic Consequences of Changes in Russia’s Age Distribution During Demographic Waves

Notes

1. “Chilslennost’ postoiannogo naseleniia—muzhchin, po vozrastu na 1 ianvaria” (available at www.fedstate.ru/indicator/31548); “Chislennost’ postoiannogo naseleniia—zhenshchin, po vozrastu na 1 ianvaria” (available at www.fedstat.ru/indicator/33459).

2. “Demograficheskii prognoz do 2035 goda” (available at www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/population/demography/#).

3. “Chislennost’ pensionerov i srednii razmer naznachennykh pensii po vidam pensionnogo obespecheniia i kategoriiam pensionerov (po sostoianiiu na 1 ianvaria)” (available at www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/urov/urov_p2.htm).

4. “Izraskhodovano sredstv za otchetnyi period Fondom sotsial’nogo strakohvaniia” (available at www.fedstat.ru/indicator/40595).

5. “Rozhdaemost’, smertnost’ i estestvennyi prirost” (available at www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/demo21.xls).

6. “Izraskhodovano sredstv za otchetnyi period … ”