Sparsity Inducing Prior Distributions for Correlation Matrices of Longitudinal Data

Abstract

For longitudinal data, the modeling of a correlation matrix  R can be a difficult statistical task due to both the positive definite and the unit diagonal constraints. Because the number of parameters increases quadratically in the dimension, it is often useful to consider a sparse parameterization. We introduce a pair of prior distributions on the set of correlation matrices for longitudinal data through the partial autocorrelations (PACs), which vary independently over (−1,1). The first prior shrinks each of the PACs toward zero with increasingly aggressive shrinkage in lag. The second prior (a selection prior) is a mixture of a zero point mass and a continuous component for each PAC, allowing for a sparse representation. The structure implied under our priors is readily interpretable for time-ordered responses because each zero PAC implies a conditional independence relationship in the distribution of the data. Selection priors on the PACs provide a computationally attractive alternative to selection on the elements of  R or  R^{− 1} for ordered data. These priors allow for data-dependent shrinkage/selection under an intuitive parameterization in an unconstrained setting. The proposed priors are compared to standard methods through a simulation study and illustrated using a multivariate probit data example. Supplemental materials for this article (appendix, data, and R code) are available online.

Key Words:

• Bayesian methods
• Multivariate probit
• Partial autocorrelation
• Selection priors
• Shrinkage

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This research was partially supported by NIH CA-85295.