Assessment of risk for criminal recidivism among rapists: A Comparison of four different measures

Abstract

The cross-cultural validity of North American instruments for the assessment of risk for criminal recidivism is currently being investigated in various European settings. This study explored the predictive accuracy of four risk assessment measures among rapists in Sweden; the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20; Boer et al., 1997a) and the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offense Recidivism (RRASOR; Hanson, 1997), both specifically constructed for use with sex offenders, the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; Hare, 1991), and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG; Webster et al., 1994). All individuals convicted of rape and diagnosed with personality disorder at pre-trial forensic psychiatric assessment in Sweden 1988–1990 (n = 51, all male) were followed with respect to criminal reconvictions for an average of 92 months after release/discharge from prison or forensic psychiatric treatment. When intervening incarcerations were taken into account, average extra-institutional time-at-risk was 73 months. Base-rates for sexual, violent non-sexual, and any violent (including sexual) reconvictions were 20%, 25%, and 39%, respectively. Only the RRASOR exhibited predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism significantly better than chance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .73 (95% confidence interval: .56–.90). PCL-R, VRAG, and SVR-20 psychosocial adjustment subscale scores were associated with increased risk for violent non-sex recidivism. The data propose preliminary cross-cultural predictive validity of the RRASOR for the assessment of risk for sexual reoffending. Results also suggest that the SVR-20 should be further evaluated before used routinely in clinical settings.

Key Words:

• risk assessment
• sexual offending
• criminality
• SVR-20
• RRASOR
• PCL-R
• VRAG