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Abstract
We examined the factors that predicted marital separation in the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, which is a prospective longitudinal survey of 411 London males. We found that dishonesty, having a wife with a conviction(s), convictions, a poor relationship with parents, no exams passed, unprotected sex and having a shotgun marriage predicted marital breakdown. Males from broken homes due to marital conflict had a moderate risk of suffering marital breakdown themselves but the effect was mediated by having conviction(s). An analysis in which separated men were matched with controls on age at marriage, prior convictions and a propensity score predicting the likelihood of separation showed that a man's convictions increased after becoming separated. However, if a man formed a new intimate relationship, the increase in convictions after separation was reduced.
Acknowledgements
The Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development data collection was funded by the Home Office and the Department of Health.
Notes
1. Odds ratios are used as a measure of strength of effect. Odds ratios greater than 2 indicate a relatively large effect (Cohen, Citation1996).
2. If the mediator predicts separation this would not be sufficient as they may both be caused by a broken home. Therefore a broken home must be controlled in order to satisfactorily establish the effect of the mediator on separation (Baron & Kenny, Citation1986).
