Incremental validity of ambulatory assessment of acute dynamic risk in predicting time to recidivism among prisoners on parole

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the incremental validity of changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors, collected through automated telephony over 30 consecutive days following parole, for predicting time to recidivism during the following year. Before release, the participants completed self-report assessment of some stable risk factors – impulsiveness and history of problematic substance use – as well as an assessment of symptoms of anxiety experienced during the weeks prior to release. Analysis of the baseline assessments showed that impulsiveness and a history of problematic substance use, but not pre-release symptoms of anxiety, were associated with recidivism during the parole year. Growth modelling using a linear mixed model was used to assess whether inmates on parole showed changes in acute dynamic risk factors during the first month following release. Individual growth model slopes and intercept were then extracted and used as covariates in a series of Cox regression analyses to test whether changes in acute dynamic risk factors could provide incremental predictive validity beyond baseline stable risk factors. Changes in five dynamic risk factors were associated with an increased risk of recidivism, of which daily drug use and daily summary score showed incremental predictive improvement beyond impulsiveness and history of problematic drug use.

KEYWORDS:

• Acute dynamic risk
• incremental validity
• paroled offenders
• recidivism
• prediction

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 The total score ranges from 0 (maximum negative) to 171 (maximum positive).

2 This study follows the guidelines in Singh, Yang, Mulvey, & the RAGEE Groups (2015) on what should routinely be reported in risk assessment research.

3 The number of parameters a growth model can estimate is one less than the number of occasions (n−1). In a linear model with one covariate there will be three estimates – one slope, one intercept, and the covariate – so at least four points in time are needed.

4 Participation in the study was terminated once the prisoner had re-offended or the one-month data collection following parole had been successfully completed.

5 The difference in response rates between recidivists and non-recidivists was not statistically significant after excluding those subjects that reoffended prior to the end of the 30-day follow-up period.

6 Even after daily drug use was subtracted from summary score, the slope was still significantly related to recidivism in crime (HR = 1.467, CI = 1.009–2.132, p < 0.05), and the model as a whole showed incremental improvement beyond the stable risk factors impulsiveness and problematic drug use (χ² (3) = 8.03, p < 0.05).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Swedish Prison and Probation Service.