A Comprehensive Probability Project for the Upper Division One-Semester Probability Course Using Yahtzee

Abstract

This article describes a probability project used in an upper division, one-semester probability course with third-semester calculus and linear algebra prerequisites. The student learning outcome focused on developing the skills necessary for approaching project-sized math/stat application problems. These skills include appropriately defining terms, making necessary simplifying assumptions, budgeting time, determining when to search literature, and checking theoretical calculations with simulation. It was assumed students would learn the technical material in the process. The result exceeded expectations. This article is written to summarize the project, provide a complete solution (including R code with simulations and theoretical solutions), and describe the methods which facilitated the positive outcome, with the hope that it might be adapted by others.

• Markov chain
• Probability
• Project
• Yahtzee