What is the Probability you are a Bayesian?

Abstract

Bayesian methodology continues to be widely used in statistical applications. As a result, it is increasingly important to introduce students to Bayesian thinking at early stages in their mathematics and statistics education. While many students in upper level probability courses can recite the differences in the Frequentist and Bayesian inferential paradigms, these students often struggle using Bayesian methods when conducting data analysis. Specifically, students tend to struggle translating subjective belief to the specification of a prior distribution and the incorporation of uncertainty in the Bayesian inferential approach. The purpose of this paper is to present a hands-on activity involving the Beta-Binomial model to facilitate an intuitive understanding of the Bayesian approach through subjective problem formulation which lies at the heart of Bayesian statistics.

• Beta-Binomial
• Conjugate prior
• Prior specification
• Subjective probability