Bayesian Analysis of Multivariate Latent Curve Models With Nonlinear Longitudinal Latent Effects

Abstract

In longitudinal studies, investigators often measure multiple variables at multiple time points and are interested in investigating individual differences in patterns of change on those variables. Furthermore, in behavioral, social, psychological, and medical research, investigators often deal with latent variables that cannot be observed directly and should be measured by 2 or more manifest variables. Longitudinal latent variables occur when the corresponding manifest variables are measured at multiple time points. Our primary interests are in studying the dynamic change of longitudinal latent variables and exploring the possible interactive effect among the latent variables.

Much of the existing research in longitudinal studies focuses on studying change in a single observed variable at different time points. In this article, we propose a novel latent curve model (LCM) for studying the dynamic change of multivariate manifest and latent variables and their linear and interaction relationships. The proposed LCM has the following useful features: First, it can handle multivariate variables for exploring the dynamic change of their relationships, whereas conventional LCMs usually consider change in a univariate variable. Second, it accommodates both first- and second-order latent variables and their interactions to explore how changes in latent attributes interact to produce a joint effect on the growth of an outcome variable. Third, it accommodates both continuous and ordered categorical data, and missing data.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This research was supported by a grant (CUHK 450607) from the Research Grant Council of Hong Kong Special Administration Region, and Grant P30DA016383 from the National Institute on Drug Abuse, Bethesda, MD. Special thanks to Diane M. Herbeck and David Huang for the data preparation, and to C. P. Chou for valuable comments in improving the article.