THE LIMITS OF INFLUENCE

Abstract

Even during periods of significant leverage, Washington has not had the power to stop and reverse Pakistan's nuclear trends. Pakistan's nuclear establishment has successfully deflected unwelcome US diplomatic initiatives and has been able to draw the line between necessary adaptation to, and rejection of, external pressures. Pakistan's national security managers clearly perceive that Washington's highest priorities in bilateral relations relate to the US military campaign in Afghanistan and efforts to combat terrorist groups with global reach. They presume that nuclear issues will continue to take a backseat to ongoing military campaigns in which Pakistan's assistance is crucial for America's success. This correlation of pressure and response might well change if Pakistan's nuclear activities again become front-page news. Absent this, US-Pakistani relations do not lend themselves to effective, near-term suasion by Washington on nuclear issues, whether via the 2010 US Nuclear Posture Review or other means. Pakistani leaders remain sensitive to US initiatives because Washington sets the international tone on nuclear issues. Nonetheless, Pakistan's concerns over Indian nuclear capabilities and intentions trump Washington's powers of persuasion.

Keywords:

• Pakistan
• United States
• India
• China
• nuclear policy
• no-first-use policy
• nuclear weapons

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author wishes to thank Toby Dalton, Paul Kapur, Vipin Narang, Scott Sagan, and Jane Vaynman for their comments on an earlier draft, and Nathan Cohn, Sam Black, Jessie Cleveland, and Allie Kirchner for their research assistance.

Notes

1. See, for example, Walter C. Ladwig III, “A Cold Start for Hot Wars? The Indian Army's New Limited War Doctrine,” International Security 32 (Winter 2007/08), pp. 158–90.

2. See, for example, Seymour Hersh, “Defending the Arsenal: In an Unstable Pakistan, Can Nuclear Warheads Be Kept Safe?” The New Yorker, November 16, 2009, pp. 28-35, www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/11/16/091116fa_fact_hersh?currentPage=all .

3. See, for example, Strobe Talbott, Engaging India: Diplomacy, Democracy, and the Bomb (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2004).

4. See Polly Nayak and Michael Krepon, “US Crisis Management in South Asia's Twin Peaks Crisis,” Henry L. Stimson Center, Report 57, September 2006, <www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/USCrisisManagementFull.pdf>.

5. National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, The 9/11 Commission Report (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2004), p. 331, <govinfo.library.unt.edu/911/report/911Report_Ch10.htm>.

6. National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, The 9/11 Commission Report (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2004), p. 331, <govinfo.library.unt.edu/911/report/911Report_Ch10.htm>.

7. Pervez Musharraf, In the Line of Fire (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2006), pp. 201–2.

8. Pervez Musharraf, In the Line of Fire (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2006), pp. 201–2. p. 202.

9. Pervez Musharraf, In the Line of Fire (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2006), pp. 201–2. p. 202.

10. For background on Pakistan's nuclear policies, see, for example, Feroz Hassan Khan, Eating Grass: Pakistan and the Bomb (Standford: Stanford University Press, forthcoming); Naeem Salik, The Genesis of South Asian Nuclear Deterrence: Pakistan's Perspective (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2009); Feroz Hassan Khan and Peter R. Lavoy, “Pakistan: The Dilemmas of Nuclear Deterrence,” in Muthiah Alagappa, ed., The Long Shadow: Nuclear Weapons and Security in 21 ^st Century Asia (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2008), pp. 215–40.

11. Author's confidential interviews in Rawalpindi; Mark Fitzpatrick, Nuclear Black Markets: Pakistan, A.Q. Khan and the Rise of Proliferation Networks (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2007), p. 114, <www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/nbm/nuclear-black-market-dossier-a-net-assesment/pakistans-nuclear-oversight-reforms/#western>; Michael Krepon, “How Safe and Secure Are Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons?” Henry L. Stimson Center, June 13, 2008, <www.stimson.org/spotlight/how-safe-and-secure-are-pakistans-nuclear-weapons/>; and David E. Sanger, “Obama's Worst Pakistan Nightmare,” New York Times, January 8, 2009, <www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/magazine/11pakistan-t.html>.

12. Karl Eikenberry, testimony, “Hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee—the Nomination of Lieutenant General Karl Eikenberry to be Ambassador of Afghanistan,” March 26, 2009, <www.votesmart.org/speech_detail.php?sc_id=449738&keyword=&phrase=&contain=>; Hillary Clinton, “Interview With John Roberts of CNN,” State Department, December 4, 2009, <www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2009a/12/133209.htm>.

13. Mark Landler, “Clinton Meets With Less Hostility in a Pakistan Trip,” New York Times, July 19, 2010, <www.nytimes.com/2010/07/20/world/asia/20diplo.html>.

14. Michael Maples, prepared statement for the Senate Committee on Armed Services, “Annual Threat Assessment,” March 10, 2009, <armed-services.senate.gov/statemnt/2009/March/Maples%2003-10-09.pdf>; Robert Gates, “Defense Secretary Gates Interview on Express TV in Pakistan,” Defense Department, January 21, 2010, <www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2010/January/20100122112544eaifas0.3931696.html>; and Dexter Filkins, “Pakistanis Tell of Motive in Taliban Leader's Arrest,” New York Times, August 22, 2010, <www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/world/asia/23taliban.html>.

15. Pir Subair Shah, Eric Schmitt, and Jane Perlez, “American Forces Attack Militants on Pakistani Soil,” New York Times, September 3, 2008, <www.nytimes.com/2008/09/04/world/asia/04attack.html>; Mark Mazzetti and Eric Schmitt, “US Takes to Air to Hit Militants Inside Pakistan,” New York Times, October 27, 2008, <www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/washington/27intel.html>; and Kamran Haider, “Pakistan Reopens Khyber to Supply Western Forces,” Reuters, November 17, 2008.

16. Author's confidential interview with senior Pakistani officer, Rawalpindi, October 11, 2010; and Jane Perlez and Helene Cooper, ”Signaling Tensions, Pakistan Shuts NATO Route,” New York Times, September 30, 2010, <www.nytimes.com/2010/10/01/world/asia/01peshawar.html>.

17. The author's confidential interviews with serving and retired officers were conducted in Rawalpindi and Islamabad from March 3–6, 2010, and June 8–11, 2010.

18. Author's confidential interview with a senior Pakistani military officer, Rawalpindi, June 10, 2010.

19. Author's confidential interviews with a senior SPD official, Rawalpindi, March 4, 2010 and October 11, 2010.

20. Author's confidential interview with a retired Pakistani officer, Rawalpindi, June 9, 2010.

21. Author's confidential interview with a serving senior Pakistani military officer Rawalpindi, June 10, 2010.

22. Michael Krepon and Zaid Haider, eds., “Reducing Nuclear Dangers in South Asia,” Henry L. Stimson Center, Report No. 50, January 2004, <www.stimson.org/books-reports/reducing-nuclear-dangers-in-south-asia/>.

23. Bharat Karnad, India's Nuclear Policy (Westport: Praeger, 2008), p. 2.

24. Bharat Karnad, Nuclear Weapons & Indian Security: The Realist Foundations of Strategy (New Delhi: Macmillan, 2002), p. 609.

25. Author's confidential interview with a senior Pakistani military officer, Rawalpindi, June 10, 2010.

26. Vijay K. Nair, Nuclear India (Hartford, Wisconsin: Spencer & Lancer, 1992), p. 66.

27. S.K. Malik, The Quranic Concept of War (Lahore: Wajidalis, 1979), p. 3.

28. Khan, Eating Grass; and Salik, The Genesis of South Asian Nuclear Deterrence.

29. Department of Defense, “Nuclear Posture Review Report,” April 2010, <www.defense.gov/npr/docs/2010%20nuclear%20posture%20review%20report.pdf>, p. 3.

30. Department of Defense, “Nuclear Posture Review Report,” April 2010, <www.defense.gov/npr/docs/2010%20nuclear%20posture%20review%20report.pdf>, p. 9.

31. Author's confidential interview with a Pakistani military officer, Islamabad, June 11, 2010.

32. Author's confidential interview with a serving Pakistani military officer, Islamabad, June 9, 2010.

33. Author's confidential interview with a senior Pakistani officer, Rawalpindi, June 10, 2010.

34. Author's confidential interview with a retired Pakistani military offier, Rawalpindi, June 9, 2010.

35. Tanvir Ahmad Khan, head of the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad, interview with the author, Islamabad, June 9, 2010.

36. Rifaat Hussain, chair of the Defence and Strategic Studies Department at Quaid-i-Azam University, interview with the author, Islamabad, June 9, 2010.

37. Ghazala Yasmin, “Bush Administration's Nuclear Weapons Policy,” Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad, undated, <www.issi.org.pk/ss_Detail.php?dataId=310>.

38. Maria Sultan, “US Unilateralism: The Impact on International Arms Control and Disarmament Agenda,” Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad, undated, <www.issi.org.pk/ss_Detail.php?dataId=211>.

39. Ejaz Haider, “Non-proliferation and Pakistan,” Daily Times, May 22, 2009, <www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009\05\22\story_22-5-2009_pg3_4>.

40. Author's confidential interview with a senior Pakistani officer, Rawalpindi, June 10, 2010.

41. Shamshad Ahmad, “Sen [sic] Obama's ‘I will’ Nuclear Pledge,” The News, April 14, 2010.

42. Shireen M. Mazari, “Obama's Nuclear Games,” The Nation (Pakistan), April 7, 2010, <www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Opinions/Columns/07-Apr-2010/Obamas-nuclear-games/>.

43. Syed Muhammad Ali, “Nuclear Zero and Obama's Ambitious Compromise,” Dawn, April 18, 2010. <www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/in-paper-magazine/encounter/nuclear-zero-and-obamas-ambitious-compromise-840>.

44. Malik Qasim Mustafa, “Global Zero: A World Free of Nuclear Weapons,” April 28, 2010, <www.issi.org.pk/photos/GLOBAL_ZERO.pdf>.

45. “Mr Obama's Agenda,” Dawn, April 15, 2010, <www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/editorial/mr-obamas-agenda-540>.

46. Tariq Fatemi, “Obama's New Confidence,” Dawn, April 22, 2010, <www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/editorial/obamas-new-confidence-240>.

47. Maria Sultan, “A New Nuclear World Order and Pakistan's Strategy,” The News, April 12, 2010, <www.sassu.org.uk/images/TheNews-maria_sultan.gif>.

48. “US Nuclear Policy Makes Exceptions for Pakistan,” Dawn, 22 June 2010, <www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/front-page/19-us-nuclear-policy-makes-exceptions-for-pakistan-840-hh-03>.

49. The most direct exposition of the cause and effect of the US-India civil nuclear cooperation agreement on Pakistan's hardline position toward the FMCT is “Statement by Ambassador Zamir Akram, Permanent Representative of Pakistan at the Conference on Disarmament (CD),” February 18, 2010, <missions.itu.int/~pakistan/2005_Statements/CD/cd/20100218.html>.

50. Author's confidential interview with a senior Pakistani officer, Rawalpindi, March 3, 2010.