POLITICAL SCIENCE, COMING IN FROM THE COLD

Abstract

Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century: The Role of Theory (vol. 1, 312 pages, $24.95) and A Comparative Perspective (vol. 2, 488 pages, $24.95), edited by William C. Potter with Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova. Stanford University Press, 2010.

Keywords:

• Theory
• nonproliferation policy
• nuclear proliferation

Notes

1. Alexander George, Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy (Washington: United States Institute of Peace, 1993).

2. Alexander George, Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy (Washington: United States Institute of Peace, 1993). p. 136.

3. In the interest of full disclosure, I want to let readers know that my most recent book, Better Safe than Sorry: The Ironies of Living with the Bomb, was published in 2009 by Stanford University Press, which also published the two volumes reviewed here.

4. The primary works in question are Jacques E.C. Hymans, The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006); and Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007).

5. Jacques E.C. Hymans, “The Study of Nuclear Proliferation and Nonproliferation: Toward a New Consensus?,” in William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: The Role of Theory (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2010), p. 32.

6. Etel Solingen, “Domestic Models of Political Survival: Why Some Do and Others Don't (Proliferate),” in Potter and Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: The Role of Theory, pp. 39–41.

7. Hymans, “The Study of Nuclear Proliferation and Nonproliferation,” p. 31.

8. Excerpt italicized in the original. Solingen, “Domestic Models of Political Survival,” p. 44.

9. Hymans, “The Study of Nuclear Proliferation and Nonproliferation,” p. 30.

10. Richard K. Betts, “Paranoids, Pygmies, Pariahs and Nonproliferation,” Foreign Policy 26 (Spring 1977), pp. 157–83; and Richard K. Betts, “Paranoids, Pygmies, Pariahs and Nonproliferation Revisited,” Security Studies 2 (1993), pp. 100–24.

11. Hymans, The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation, p. 25ff.

12. Natasha E. Bajema, “Beyond the Security Model: Assessing the Capacity of Neoclassical Realism for Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation, in Potter and Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: The Role of Theory, pp. 58–79.

13. Scott D. Sagan, “Nuclear Latency and Nuclear Proliferation,” in Potter and Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: The Role of Theory, p. 83.

14. Scott D. Sagan, “Nuclear Latency and Nuclear Proliferation,” in Potter and Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: The Role of Theory p. 96.

15. Hymans, “When Does A State Become a ‘Nuclear Weapons State’? An Exercise in Measurement Validation,” in Potter and Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: The Role of Theory, p. 121. (A version of this chapter appeared in the March 2010 issue of the Nonproliferation Review, pp. 161–80.)

16. Harald Müller and Andreas Schmidt, “The Little Known Story of Deproliferation: Why States Give Up Nuclear Weapons and Activities,” in Potter and Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: The Role of Theory, p. 154.

17. Harald Müller and Andreas Schmidt, “The Little Known Story of Deproliferation: Why States Give Up Nuclear Weapons and Activities,” in Potter and Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: The Role of Theory, p. 127.

18. Philipp C. Bleek, “Why Do States Proliferate? Quantitative Analysis of the Exploration, Pursuit, and Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons,” in Potter and Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: The Role of Theory, p. 180.

19. Lewis A. Dunn, “A World of Nuclear Powers: A Gedanken Experiment,” in Potter and Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: The Role of Theory, pp. 193–227.

20. Lewis A. Dunn, Controlling the Bomb (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1982), pp. 44, 95.

21. William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, “Forecasting Proliferation: The Role of Theory, an Introduction,” in Potter and Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: The Role of Theory, p. 12.

22. Stimson's famous quote was, “Gentlemen do not read each other's mail,” made in reference to eliminating a secret US cryptanalytic organization during the interwar period. See David Kahn, The Reader of Gentlemen's Mail: Herbert O. Yardley and the Birth of American Intelligence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2004).

23. Leonard S. Spector and Deborah R. Berman, “The Syrian Nuclear Puzzle,” in William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: A Comparative Perspective (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2010), p. 126.

24. Jim Walsh, “Will Egypt Seek Nuclear Weapons? An Assessment of Motivations, Constraints, Consequences, and Policy Options,” in Potter and Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: A Comparative Perspective, pp. 13–41. For purposes of comparison, see Robert J. Einhorn, “Egypt: Frustrated but Still on a Non-Nuclear Course,” in Kurt M. Campbell, Robert J. Einhorn, and Mitchell B. Reiss, eds., The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution Press, 2004), pp. 43–82.

25. Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, “Pride and Prejudice: Understanding Iran's Nuclear Program,” in Potter and Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: A Comparative Perspective, p. 74.

26. Ibhrahim al-Marashi, “Saudi Petro-Nukes? Riyadh's Nuclear Intentions and Regime Survival Strategies,” in Potter and Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: A Comparative Perspective, p. 99.

27. Spector and Berman, “The Syrian Nuclear Puzzle,” p. 122.

28. Jessica C. Varnum, “Turkey in Transition: Toward or Away from Nuclear Weapons?,” in Potter and Mukhatzhanova, Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: A Comparative Perspective, p. 250.

29. William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, “In Search of Proliferation: Trends and Tendencies,” in Potter and Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: A Comparative Perspective, p. 337.

30. William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, “In Search of Proliferation: Trends and Tendencies,” in Potter and Mukhatzhanova, eds., Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21 st Century: A Comparative Perspective p. 352.