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NATO Territorial Ballistic Missile Defense and its Implications for Arms Control

 

ABSTRACT

Since 2002, NATO's territorial missile defense has evoked continuous debates between NATO states and the Russian Federation. Thirteen years have passed without reaching a common denominator. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the historical background of the debate and the technical details of the missile defense system, highlighting its shortcomings and the state of its deployment process. It also contrasts the military-technical and political arguments of both sides, before addressing the applicable norms of international law to highlight violations and the effect of this noncompliance on existing arms control measures.

Notes

2. Robert Gates and James Cartwright, “Department of Defense News Briefing,” US Department of Defense, September 17, 2009, <archive.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4479>.

3. NATO, “Missile Defence Fact Sheet.”

4. White House Office of the Press Secretary, “Fact Sheet on US Missile Defense Policy, A ‘Phased, Adaptive Approach’ for Missile Defense on Europe,” September 17, 2009, <www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/fact-sheet-us-missile-defense-policy-a-phased-adaptive-approach-missile-defense-eur>; Department of Defense, “Quadrennial Defense Review Report,” February 2010, <www.defense.gov/qdr/images/QDR_as_of_12Feb10_1000.pdf>; Department of Defense, “Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report,” February 2010, <http://archive.defense.gov/bmdr/docs/BMDR%20as%20of%2026JAN10%200630_for%20web.pdf>.

5. Department of Defense, “Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report.”

6. White House, “Fact Sheet on US Missile Defense Policy;” Gates and Cartwright, “Department of Defense News Briefing.”

7. White House, “Fact Sheet on US Missile Defense Policy.”

8. Ibid.

9. Ibid.

10. Ibid.

11. NATO, “NATO 2020: Assured Security; Dynamic Engagement: Analysis and Recommendations of the Group of Experts on New Strategic Concept for NATO,” May 17, 2010, <www.nato.int/cps/en/SID-B836EE39-D5D0B354/natolive/official_texts_63654.htm?selectedLocale=en>; NATO, “Lisbon Summit Declaration,” November 20, 2010, <www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_68828.htm?mode=pressrelease>.

12. NATO, “Lisbon Summit Declaration.”

13. Missile Defense Agency, “The Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS), A System of Elements,” undated, <www.mda.mil/system/elements.html>.

14. “Aegis Weapon System Mk7,” GlobalSecurity.org, July 7, 2011, <www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/ship/systems/aegis-core.htm>; “Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) System, United States of America,” Naval-technology.com, undated, <www.naval-technology.com/projects/aegis-ballistic-missile-defence-bmd-us/>; Federation of American Scientists, “AN/SPY-1 Radar,” June 16, 2000, <www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ship/weaps/an-spy-1.htm>.

15. Originally, SM-2 Block IV was intended to counter only against short- and medium-range missiles, but was later expanded to counter longer-range missiles as well. See Missile Defense Agency, “The Ballistic Missile Defense System.”

16. Lockheed Martin, “Evolutionary Design,” undated, <www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/aegis/evolutionary-design.html>.

17. Lockheed Martin, “Aegis Ashore, Supporting Phased Adaptive Approach for Layered Missile Defense,” undated, <www.lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed/data/ms2/documents/Aegis-Ashore-brochure.pdf>. See also Ronald O'Rourke, “Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program: Background and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, September 25, 2015 <www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL33745.pdf>.

18. Missile Defense Agency, “Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense, Aegis Ashore,” undated, <www.mda.mil/system/aegis_ashore.html>; “Aegis BMD System, United States of America;” Lockheed Martin, “Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense,” undated, <www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/aegis/aegis-bmd.html>; Bernard Ulfers and George LeFurjah, “AN/SPY-1B/D Radar Design Changes Supporting Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense in Sensors Modernization,” Leading Edge 7, undated, <www.navsea.navy.mil/Portals/103/Documents/NSWC_Dahlgren/LeadingEdge/Sensors/Sensors03.pdf>.

19. Lockheed Martin, “Aegis Ashore, Supporting Phased Adaptive Approach for Layered Missile Defense;” Missile Defense Agency, “Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense, Aegis Ashore;” Defense Industry Daily, “Swiss Army Knife: Mk 41 Vertical Missile Launch Systems (VLS),” February 13, 2013, <www.defenseindustrydaily.com/mk-41-naval-vertical-missile-launch-systems-delivered-supported-updated-02139/>.

20. Missile Defense Agency, “Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense, Aegis Ashore.”

21. Lockheed Martin, “Evolutionary Design.”

22. Federation of American Scientists, “MK 41 Vertical Launching System (VLS),” undated, <www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ship/weaps/mk-41-vls.htm>.

23. Ibid.

24. “RIM-174 SM-6 Extended Range Active Missile (ERAM),” GlobalSecurity.org, undated, <www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/sm-6.htm>; “First RIM-174 SM-6 Missile Delivered by Raytheon for IOC in 2013,” Defense Updates (blog), March 5, 2013, <www.defenseupdates.blogspot.com/2013/03/first-rim-174-sm-6-missile-delivered-by.html>.

25. Raytheon, “Standard Missile-6, Sophisticated Fleet Air Defense,” undated, <www.raytheon.com/capabilities/products/standard_missile/sm-6/>.

26. Amy F. Woolf, “Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues,” Congressional Research Service, April 26, 2013; “Q&A Session on Recent Developments in U.S. and NATO Missile Defense with Dr. Yousaf Butt and Dr. George Lewis,” FAS Strategic Security Blog, March 20, 2013, <http://blogs.fas.org/security/2013/03/qa-session-on-recent-developments-in-us-and-nato-missile-defense-with-dr-yousaf-butt-and-dr-george-lewis/>.

27. Amy F. Woolf, “Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues.”

28. Federation of American Scientists, “MK41 VLS.”

29. Ibid.

30. Department of the Navy, United States of America, “Tomahawk Cruise Missile,” America's Navy, undated, <www.navy.mil/navydata/fact_display.asp?cid=2200&tid=1300&ct=2>; Federation of American Scientists, “BMG-109 Tomahawk,” undated, <www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/smart/bgm-109.htm>; Defense Industry Daily, “Tomahawk's Chops: xGM-109 Block IV Cruise Missiles,” March 12, 2013, <www.defenseindustrydaily.com/block-iv-xgm-109-tomahawk-chopped-07423/>.

31. “BMG-109 Tomahawk,” GlobalSecurity.org, undated, <www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/bgm-109-var.htm>.

32. Lea Ann Davis, “Request for Information-Hypersonic Weapons Technologies,” Department of the Navy, November 2, 2012, <www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=e8f9907addc066728561fa408a7e7fe0&tab=core&_cview=0>.

33. Defense Industry Daily, “RIM- 162 ESSM Missile, Naval Anti-Air in a Quad Pack,” November 16, 2014, <www.defenseindustrydaily.com/rim-162-essm-missile-naval-anti-air-in-a-quad-pack-03924/>.

34. An ASROC missile is able to carry a 10-kiloton W44 nuclear warhead and nuclear depth bombs. However, the W44 warheads were retired in 1989, and all nuclear depth bombs were removed from deployment.

35. Lockheed Martin, “Extensible Launching System (ExLS), Innovative, Adaptable and Affordable,” 2010, <www.lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed/data/ms2/documents/launchers/ExLS%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf>.

36. David Lubrano, “14--FY13-17 MK 41 Vertical Launch System (VLS) Launcher Production Mechanical and Electronic Contract(s) for Launchers and Ancillary Hardware for US Navy, AEGIS Ashore and Allied Navy Requirements,” Department of the Navy, February 12, 2013, <www.fbo.gov/?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=067b495dcb5d9d9a229fb22a2b67ff2e&tab=core&_cview=0>.

37. Donna Miles, “Progress Continues toward NATO Missile Defense System,” American Forces Press Service, May 15, 2012, <www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=116339>; NATO, “Ballistic Missile Defense.”

38. See, e.g., Department of the Navy “USS Monterey Returns from Mediterranean Deployment,” November 1, 2011 (5:39 PM), <www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=63590>; “USS The Sullivans, DDG 68,” uscarriers.net, undated, <www.uscarriers.net/ddg68history.htm>.

39. NATO, “Ballistic Missile Defense.”

40. The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, “Fact Sheet: Implementing Missile Defense in Europe,” September 15, 2011, <www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/09/15/fact-sheet-implementing-missile-defense-europe>.

41. Vince Little, “U.S., Romania Begin to Work on Aegis Ashore Missile Defense Complex,” United States European Command, October 28, 2013, <www.eucom.mil/article/25495/us-romania-begin-work-on-aegis-ashore-missile-defense-complex>.

42. Department of the Navy, “Navy Names Forward Deployed Ships to Rota, Spain,” February 16, 2012, <www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=65393>.

43. NATO, “First of Four U.S. Navy Ships to Support NATO Ballistic Missile Defense Arrives in Spain,” February 13, 2014, <www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_106997.htm?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social%2Bmedia&utm_campaign=140211%2Bbmd%2Bspain>.

44. Frank A. Rose, “U.S. Missile Defense and Regional Security,” presentation at the 2nd Annual Israel Multinational Missile Defense Conference, Tel Aviv, Israel, July 25, 2011, <http://london.usembassy.gov/acda044.html>; UPI, “Poland wants French, German Missile Help,” August 11, 2012, <www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2012/08/11/Poland-wants-French-German-missile-help/UPI-91681344701924/>; The Telegraph, “Polish President Accuses Obama of Betraying Poland,” August 6, 2012, <www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/9456610/Polish-president-accuses-Obama-of-betraying-Poland.html>.

45. Cheryl Pellerin, “U.S. Missile Defense Counters Growing Threat,” American Forces Press Service, Department of Defense, April 19, 2012, <www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=116009>.

46. John F. Morton and George Galdorisi, “Any Sensor, Any Shooter. Toward and Aegis BMD Global Enterprise,” Joint Force Quarterly 67 (2012), <http://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-67/JFQ-67_85-90_Morton-Galdorisi.pdf>.

47. O'Rourke, “Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program,” pp. 2, 6.

48. Defense Industry Daily, “Swiss Army Knife: Mk 41 Vertical Missile Launch Systems (VLS).”

49. Ibid.

50. Ibid.

51. Ibid.

52. Ibid.

53. Ambassador Alexander Vershbow, “NATO's Vision for Missile Defense Cooperation with Russia,” presentation delivered by Deputy Secretary General of NATO to the Moscow Missile Defense Conference, Moscow, Russian Federation, May 3 2012, <www.nato.int/cps/en/SID-13519960-461FB3AD/natolive/opinions_86832.htm?selectedLocale=en>; Rose, “U.S. Missile Defense and Regional Security.”

54. Missile Defense Agency, “Sensors,” undated, <www.mda.mil/system/sensors.html>.

55. Arms Control Association, “The European Phased Adaptive Approach at a Glance,” May 2013, <www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Phasedadaptiveapproach>.

56. Missile Defense Agency, “Sensors;” Morton and Galdorisi, “Any Sensor, Any Shooter. Toward and Aegis BMD Global Enterprise.”

57. Currently, three forward-based AN/TPY-2 radars operate in combat mode: Japan, Shariki (Honshū Island), Israel (Nevatim Desert), and Turkey (Malatya Province).

58. Morton and Galdorisi, “Any Sensor, Any Shooter. Toward and Aegis BMD Global Enterprise.”

59. Ibid.; “National Academy Of Sciences: Navy Aegis Radars in EPAA are Just Communications Relays,” September 13, 2011, <www.mostlymissiledefense.com/2012/09/13/396/>.

60. “National Academy Of Sciences: Navy Aegis Radars in EPAA are Just Communications Relays.”

61. Department of Defense, “Defense Science Board Task Force Report on Science and Technology Issues of Early Intercept Ballistic Missile Defense Feasibility,” September 2011, <www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/ADA552472.pdf>; Missile Defense Agency, “Sensors.”

62. George Lewis and Theodore Postol, “Ballistic Missile Defense: Radar Range Calculations for the AN/TPY-2 X-Band and NAS Proposed GBX Radars,” September 2012, <www.mostlymissiledefense.com/2012/09/21/ballistic-missile-defense-radar-range-calculations-for-the-antpy-2-x-band-and-nas-proposed-gbx-radars-september-21-2012/>.

63. Andrew M. Sessler and John M. Cornwall, with Bob Dietz, Steve Fetter, Sherman Frankel, Richard L. Garwin, Kurt Gottfried, Lisbeth Gronlund, George N. Lewis, Theodore A. Postol, and David C. Wright, “Countermeasures. A Technical Evaluation of the Operational Effectiveness of the Planned U.S. National Missile Defense System,” Union of Concerned Scientists, April 2000, <www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nwgs/cm_all.pdf>.

64. Missile Defense Agency, “Sensors.”

65. Stephen Reidy, “Standard Missile, Raytheon's Evolving Technology to Strengthen the Ballistic Missile Defense of the U.S. and its Allies,” Technology Today, Highlighting Raytheon's Technology 2 (2012).

66. Missile Defense Agency, “Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense, FTM-16 FACT SHEET,” August 22, 2011, <www.stratcom.mil/files/FTM-16%20Fact%20sheet%20-%20v13.pdf>.

67. Reidy, “Standard Missile, Raytheon's Evolving Technology to Strengthen the Ballistic Missile Defense of the U.S. and its Allies.”

68. United States Government Accountability Office, “Missile Defense: Opportunity to Refocus on Strengthening Acquisition Management, Report to Congressional Committees,” April 2013, <www.gao.gov/products/GAO-13-432>; Missile Defense Agency, “Sea-based X-band Radar,” May 2015, <http://www.mda.mil/global/documents/pdf/sbx.pdf>.

69. Missile Defense Agency, “Upgraded Early Warning Radars, AN/FPS-132, Fact Sheet,” July 23, 2014, <www.mda.mil/global/documents/pdf/uewr1.pdf>.

70. Raytheon, “Raytheon's Dual-band Datalink Tested with Thales Radar, Success Broadens Europe's Ballistic Missile Defense Options,” undated, <http://investor.raytheon.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=84193&p=irol-newsArticle&id=1794313>.

71. Postol et al., “Countermeasures. A Technical Evaluation of the Operational Effectiveness of the Planned U.S. National Missile Defense System.”

72. Gates and Cartwright, “Department of Defense News Briefing.”

73. Выступление и дискуссия на Мюнхенской конференции по вопросам политики безопасности [Speech and Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy Issues], Munich, Germany, February 10, 2007, <http://archive.kremlin.ru/appears/2007/02/10/1737_type63374type63376type63377type63381type82634_118097.shtml>; Mеждународнaя конференция «Фактор противоракетной обороны в формировании нового пространства безопасности» [International Conference The Missile Defense Factor in the Formation of the New Security Environment], Moscow, Ministry of Defense, Russian Federation, May 3-4, 2012, <http://mil.ru/conference_of_pro/greeting.htm>, <http://mil.ru/conference_of_pro/photo_video/video.htm>.

74. NATO, “Lisbon Summit Declaration.”

75. International Conference The Missile Defence Factor in the Formation of the New Security Environment, Moscow, Russian Federation, 2012.

76. E.g. Mikhail Khodarenok, “The Fundamental Basis of the Concept” in Alexei Arbatov and Vladimir Dvorkin, Missile Defense, Confrontation and Cooperation, trans. Natalia Bubnova, (Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center, 2013), pp. 23-32; Vladimir Dvorkin, “The Prospects for Cooperation between the U.S./NATO and Russia on BMD,” in Arbatov and Dvorkin, Missile Defense, Confrontation and Cooperation, pp. 204-25.

77. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, “Missile Defense: Two Independent Systems,” NATO, Brussels, Belgium, January, 19, 2011, <www.nato.int/cps/en/SID-6B4BE5C2-E60A5AB2/natolive/topics_49635.htm>; International Conference The Missile Defense Factor in the Formation of the New Security Environment, Moscow, Russian Federation, 2012.

78. International Conference The Missile Defence Factor in the Formation of the New Security Environment, Moscow, Russian Federation, 2012. 

79. Выступление заместителя начальника Генерального штаба ВС РФ генерал-полковника В.В. Герасимова, Mеждународнaя конференция «Фактор противоракетной обороны в формировании нового пространства безопасности» [Deputy Joint Chief of Staff V. V. Gerasimov, speech delivered at the International Conference The Missile Defence Factor in the Formation of the New Security Environment], Ministry of Defense, Moscow, Russian Federation, May 3-4, 2012, <http://mil.ru/conference_of_pro/photo_video/video.htm>.

80. International Conference The Missile Defence Factor in the Formation of the New Security Environment, Moscow, Russian Federation, 2012; Медведев объявил холодную войну США из-за PRO.flv, Youtube video, [Medvedjev Announced Cold War with the U.S. due to ABMD], December 13, 2011, <http://vk.com/video12261819_161601014>.

81. Ibid.

82. International Conference The Missile Defence Factor in the Formation of the New Security Environment, Moscow, Russian Federation, 2012; see also Rose, “U.S. Missile Defense and Regional Security.”

83. Vershbow, “NATO's Vision for Missile Defense Cooperation with Russia;” Cheryl Pellerin, “Experts to Make Missile Defense Case at Moscow Meeting,” American Forces Press Service, May 2, 2012, <www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=116175>.

84. Yousaf Butt and Theodor Postol, “Upsetting the Reset: The Technical Basis of Russian Concern over NATO Missile Defense,” FAS Special Report No 1, Federation of American Scientists, September 2011, <www.fas.org/pubs/_docs/2011%20Missile%20Defense%20Report.pdf>; Vladimir Pyriev and Vladimir Dvorkin, “The US/NATO Program and Strategic Stability,” in Arbatov and Dvorkin, Missile Defense, Confrontation and Cooperation, pp. 183-202.

85. Pyriev and Dvorkin, “The US/NATO Program and Strategic Stability;” Butt and Postol, “Upsetting the Reset: The Technical Basis of Russian Concern over NATO Missile Defense.”

86. NATO, “NATO's Relations with Russia,” undated, <www.nato.int/cps/en/SID-66DCA189-01EF0C67/natolive/topics_50090.htm>; Vershbow, “NATO's Vision for Missile Defense Cooperation with Russia.”

87. Chuck Hagel, “Missile Defense Announcement,” The Pentagon, March 15, 2013, <www.defense.gov/utility/printitem.aspx?print=http://www.defense.gov/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1759>.

88. Sputnik, “Moscow Needs Explanations on US Missile Shield Changes,” March 19, 2013, <www.en.rian.ru/military_news/20130319/180102366/Moscow-Needs-Explanations-on-US-Missile-Shield-Changes.html>.

89. Under Article I, “each Party shall eliminate its intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles, not have such systems thereafter, and carry out the other obligations set forth in this Treaty.” Article II(5) defines intermediate-range missiles as ground launched ballistic missiles (GLBM) or ground launched cruise missiles (GLCM) “having a range capability in excess of 1000 kilometers but not in excess of 5500 kilometers.” Article VI(1) requires that “[u]pon entry into force of this Treaty and thereafter, neither Party shall: (a) produce or flight-test any intermediate-range missiles or produce any stages of such missiles or any launchers of such missiles;” (emphasis added). Treaty Between The United States Of America And The Union Of Soviet Socialist Republics On The Elimination Of Their Intermediate-Range And Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty), June 1, 1988. For the full text of the INF, see: <www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/102360.htm>.

90. Hans M. Kristensen, “US Navy Instruction Confirms Retirement of Nuclear Tomahawk Cruise Missile,” FAS Strategic Security Blog, March 18, 2013, <http://blogs.fas.org/security/2013/03/tomahawk/>; “B&W Pantex FY 2012, Performance Evaluation Report,” Nukewatch, October 23, 2012, <www.nukewatch.org/importantdocs/resources/Pantex_Final_FY12_PER.PDF>.

91. Lockheed Martin, “Lockheed Martin Advances Affordability across U.S. Navy's Aegis Weapons System to Secure Multi-Year Contract,” January 2014, <www.lockheedmartin.com/us/news/press-releases/2014/january/140107-mst-affordability-across-aegis-weapons-system.html>; Jaroslaw Adamowski, “Poland, Romania Lead E. Europe Missile Defense Efforts,” Defense News, August 9, 2015, <http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/air-space/space/2015/08/09/poland-romania-lead-e-europe-missile-defense-efforts/31057643/>.

92. See, for instance, the US Department of Navy's solicitation, “14-FY13-17 MK 41 Vertical Launch System (VLS) Launcher Production Mechanical and Electronic Contract(s) for Launchers and Ancillary Hardware for US Navy, AEGIS Ashore and Allied Navy requirements,” <www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=79b57f2d5fee817628c27bb5616f54e6&tab=core&_cview=1>.

93. See, in this volume, Dennis M. Gormley, “US Advanced Conventional Systems and Conventional Prompt Global Strike Ambitions: Assessing the Risks, Benefits, and Arms Control Implications,” pp. 123–139; and James M. Acton, “Russia and Strategic Conventional Weapons,” pp. 123–139. -Ed.

94. INF, Article VII, para. 3.

95. Ibid., Article VII, para. 12.

96. Statement of the Russian Federation Concerning Missile Defense, official translation of the statement to New START, <www.state.gov/documents/organization/140408.pdf>.

97. Department of Defense, “Quadrennial Defense Review Report”; Department of Defense, “Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report.”

98. INF, Article XV, para. 2 “Each Party shall, in exercising its national sovereignty, have the right to withdraw from this Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events related to the subject matter of this Treaty have jeopardized its supreme interests.” New START, Article XIV, para. 3” Each Party shall, in exercising its national sovereignty, have the right to withdraw from this Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events related to the subject matter of this Treaty have jeopardized its supreme interests. It shall give notice of its decision to the other Party. Such notice shall contain a statement of the extraordinary events the notifying Party regards as having jeopardized its supreme interests. This Treaty shall terminate three months from the date of receipt by the other Party of the aforementioned notice, unless the notice specifies a later date.”

99. Совещание с руководством Министерства Обороны и Совета Безопасности, Краснодарский край, Россия, 13 мая 2013 года [Meeting with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense and the Security Council, Krasnodar Krai, Russian Federation, May 13, 2013], <www.kremlin.ru/transcripts/18106>. See also e.g. Sputnik, “Russia to Up Nuclear Weapons Spending 50% by 2016,” October 8, 2013, <http://sputniknews.com/military/20131008/184004336/Russia-to-Up-Nuclear-Weapons-Spending-50-by-2016.html>; “Russian Military Budget,” GlobalSecurity.org, <www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/mo-budget.htm>.

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