Eliminating Syria’s chemical weapons: implications for addressing nuclear, biological, and chemical threats

ABSTRACT

The 2013–14 disarmament of Syria's chemical-weapons capabilities was a rare bright spot in a brutal civil war with no end in sight. The remarkable US-led, international effort to bring Damascus into the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention, inventory its capabilities, and then verifiably destroy them is a fascinating and, to date, largely untold story. A substantial US government interagency effort centered in the Defense Department laid the diplomatic, technical, and procedural foundations for Syria's disarmament in the year prior to the August 2013 chemical-weapons attack in Ghouta that galvanized Syria's subsequent disarmament. An intrinsically interesting case, Syria's chemical-weapons disarmament has important implications for possible future WMD elimination operations elsewhere.

KEYWORDS:

• Syria
• chemical weapons
• elimination
• disarmament
• Chemical Weapons Convention
• Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons

Acknowledgements

The authors are deeply grateful to colleagues who supported their efforts to recount and learn the lessons of the remarkable Syrian CW-elimination effort. More broadly, they are grateful to all those, in the US and other governments and international organizations, whose hard work to prepare for Syrian CW contingencies paid off so robustly. Philipp Bleek also thanks the Council on Foreign Relations and the Stanton Foundation for the Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellowship in Nuclear Security that enabled the government service on which this article draws.

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policies or positions of any of their current or past employers or funders, including the US Government, Department of Defense, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Army, or Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

Notes

1. Neil MacFarquhar and Eric Schmitt, “Syria Threatens Chemical Attack on Foreign Force,” New York Times, July 23, 2012, <www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/world/middleeast/chemical-weapons-wont-be-used-in-rebellion-syria-says.html>.

2. Ibid.

3. Ibid.

4. Jihad Makdissi, Twitter post, July 23, 2012, 7:08 AM, <https://twitter.com/Makdissi>.

5. Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis, “Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January to 31 December 2006,” Central Intelligence Agency, 2006.

6. Brian Lessenberry, “Intelligence Integration and the Syrian CW Threat,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, February 18, 2015, <http://csis.org/publication/intelligence-integration-and-syrian-cw-threat>; “Destroying Syria's Chemical Weapons: One Year Later,” Panel hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, September 10, 2014, <www.csis.org/events/destroying-syria%E2%80%99s-chemical-weapons-one-year-later>.

7. W. Seth Carus, “Chemical Weapons in the Middle East,” Policy Focus No. 9, December 1988, p. 4, <www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/PolicyFocus9.pdf>.

8. Ibid.

9. M. Zuhair Diab, “Syria's Chemical and Biological Weapons: Assessing Capabilities and Motivations,” Nonproliferation Review 4 (Fall 1997), p. 104, <http://cns.miis.edu/npr/pdfs/diab51.pdf>; Statement in US House of Representatives by Representative Bobbi Fielder (California), Congressional Record, Daily Edition, May 17, 1984, p. H4088.

10. Ibid.

11. Ibid., p. 107.

12. Ibid.

13. Ibid.

14. Ibid., p. 108.

15. Dany Shoham, “Guile, Gas and Germs: Syria's Ultimate Weapons,” Middle East Quarterly 9 (Summer 2002), <www.meforum.org/493/guile-gas-and-germs-syrias-ultimate-weapons>.

16. Carus, “Chemical Weapons in the Middle East.”

17. Shoham, “Guile, Gas and Germs.”

18. Carus, “Chemical Weapons in the Middle East.”

19. M. Zuhair Diab, “Syria's Chemical and Biological Weapons,” p. 106.

20. James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, “Country Profiles: Syria—Chemical,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, July 2014, <www.nti.org/country-profiles/syria/chemical/>.

21. Gordon M. Burck and Charles C. Flowerree, International Handbook on Chemical Weapons Proliferation (Wesport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1991), p. 208.

22. Ibid., p. 211.

23. Diab, “Syria's Chemical and Biological Weapons,” p. 108.

24. Ibid.

25. Ibid.

26. Dany Shoham, “Poisoned Missiles: Syria's Doomsday Deterrent,” Middle East Quarterly 9 (Fall 2002), <www.meforum.org/510/poisoned-missiles-syrias-doomsday-deterrent>.

27. Ibid.

28. James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, “Country Profiles: Syria—Missiles,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, July 2014, <www.nti.org/country-profiles/syria/delivery-systems/>.

29. Shoham, “Poisoned Missiles: Syria's Doomsday Deterrent.”

30. Ibid.

31. Shoham, “Guile, Gas and Germs: Syria's Ultimate Weapons.”

32. Ibid.

33. Ibid.

34. Elie Chalhoub, “Assad: Hamas Has Betrayed Us Repeatedly, But … ,” Al-Akhbar English, October 14, 2013, <http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/17324>.

35. Robin Hughes, “Explosion aborts CW project run by Iran and Syria,” Jane's Defence Weekly, September 17, 2007.

36. Ronen Bergman, Juliane von Mittelstaedt, Matthias Schepp, and Holger Stark, “Israel's Red Line: Fate of Syrian Chemical Weapons May Trigger War,” Spiegel Online International, July 31, 2012, <www.spiegel.de/international/world/israel-prepares-plans-to-neutralize-syrian-chemical-weapons-a-847203.html>.

37. Ronen Bergman, “Tracing Back Syria's Chemical Weapons Stockpile to Gulf War,” Al-Monitor, August 24, 2012, <www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/01/08/syrias-chemical-warfare-arsenal.html>.

38. Ibid.

39. Ibid.

40. Shoham, “Poisoned Missiles: Syria's Doomsday Deterrent.”

41. Ibid.

42. Ibid.

43. Robin Hughes, “Iran Aids Syria's CW Programme,” Jane's Defence Weekly, October 21, 2005; Bhupendra Jasani, “Chemical Romance: Syria's Unconventional Affair Develops,” Jane's Intelligence Review, February 17, 2009.

44. Director of Central Intelligence Nonproliferation Center, “Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology, Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January to 30 June 2000,” Central Intelligence Agency, 2001.

45. James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, “Country Profiles: Syria—Biological,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, last updated July 2014, <www.nti.org/country-profiles/syria/biological/>.

46. Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis, “Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January to 31 December 2006.”

47. “Syria Chemical Weapons Warning: Threat or Reassurance?” The Week UK, July 24, 2012, <www.theweek.co.uk/middle-east/syria-uprising/48124/syria-chemical-weapons-warning-threat-or-reassurance>.

48. Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), “Letter dated 26 November 2014 from the Secretary-General addressed to the President of the Security Council,” S/2014/853, November 28, 2013, p. 4; Catherine Dill, “Spotlight On Syria's Biological Weapons,” Arms Control Wonk, February 8, 2016, <www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1201010/guest-post-spotlight-on-syrias-biological-weapons/>.

49. “Country Profiles: Syria—Nuclear,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, last updated July 2014, <www.nti.org/country-profiles/syria/nuclear/>.

50. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), “CRP on Conversion of Miniature Neutron Source Research Reactors (MNSR) to Low Enriched Uranium (LEU),” n.d., <www.iaea.org/OurWork/ST/NE/NEFW/Technical-Areas/RRS/mnsr.html>.

51. IAEA, “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Syrian Arab Republic,” Report by the Director General to the Board of Governors, GOV/2010/11, February 18, 2010, <www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/gov2010-11.pdf>.

52. Frank N. von Hippel, Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Emad Kiyaei, Harold A. Feiveson, and Zia Mian, “Fissile Material Controls in the Middle East: Steps toward a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and all other Weapons of Mass Destruction,” Research Report No. 11, International Panel on Fissile Materials, October 2013, <http://fissilematerials.org/library/rr11.pdf>; and Barbara Slavin, “Syria agrees to return highly enriched uranium to China,” Al-Monitor, April 22, 2015, <www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/04/syria-give-up-highly-enriched-uranium.html>.

53. Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis, “Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, Covering 1 January to 31 December 2011,” Washington, DC, 2011.

54. OPCW, “Letter dated 28 October 2013 from the Secretary-General addressed to the President of the Security Council,” S/2013/629, October 28, 2013, p. 9, <www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_2013_629.pdf>. US government officials have described the regime's declared stocks as “1300 tons of declared agent and related materials.” “Destroying Syria's Chemical Weapons.”

55. Dominique Anelli, “Removal and Destruction of Syrian Chemical Weapons,” presented at the 2014 Jonathan Tucker Conference on Chemical and Biological Arms, December 12, 2014, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, <www.armscontrol.org/files/Panel2.1_Anelli_TuckerConference.pdf>; OPCW, “Progress In The Elimination Of The Syrian Chemical Weapons Programme,” EC-M-35/DG.1, November 25, 2013, p. 2, <www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW/EC/M-35/ecm35dg01_e_.pdf>.

56. “Destroying Syria's Chemical Weapons.”

57. Kareem Fahim, “Slap to a Man's Pride Set Off Tumult in Tunisia,” New York Times, January 21, 2011, <www.nytimes.com/2011/01/22/world/africa/22sidi.html>.

58. Fred H. Lawson, Global Security Watch: Syria (Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger, 2013), p. 79.

59. “Interview With Syrian President Bashar al-Assad,” Wall Street Journal, January 31, 2011, <www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703833204576114712441122894>.

60. Ibid.

61. Lawson, Global Security Watch: Syria, p. 80.

62. Ibid., pp. 80-81.

63. Ibid., p. 87.

64. Jason Ukman and Liz Sly, “Obama: Syrian President Assad must step down,” Washington Post, August 18, 2011, <www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/checkpoint-washington/post/obama-syrian-president-assad-must-step-down/2011/08/18/gIQAM75UNJ_blog.html>.

65. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, “Transcript of the Third Presidential Candidates Debate at Lynn University,” October, 22, 2012, <http://debates.org/index.php?page=october-22-2012-the-third-obama-romney-presidential-debate>.

66. Barack Obama, “Remarks by the President in Address to the Nation on Libya,” White House Office of the Press Secretary, Washington DC, March 28, 2011, <www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/03/28/remarks-president-address-nation-libya>.

67. Caryle Murphy and Tara Bahrampour, “For longtime autocrat, a violent end,” Washington Post, October 20, 2011, <www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/moammar-gaddafi-confirmed-dead-in-libya/2010/09/21/gIQAFOCV0L_story.html>.

68. Lawson, Global Security Watch: Syria, p. 99.

69. Barack Obama, “Remarks by the President to the White House Press Corps,” White House Office of the Press Secretary, Washington DC, August 20, 2012, <www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/08/20/remarks-president-white-house-press-corps>.

70. Ibid.

71. Ibid.

72. Shawna Thomas, “Obama draws ‘red line’ for Syria on chemical and biological weapons,” NBC News, August 20, 2012, <http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/20/13379062-obama-draws-red-line-for-syria-on-chemical-and-biological-weapons>.

73. Peter Baker and Michael R. Gordon, “U.S. Warns Syria on Chemical Weapons,” New York Times, December 3, 2012, <www.nytimes.com/2012/12/04/world/middleeast/nato-prepares-missile-defenses-for-turkey.html>.

74. Josh Rogin, “Exclusive: Secret State Department cable: Chemical weapons used in Syria,” Foreign Policy, January 15, 2013, <http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/01/15/exclusive-secret-state-department-cable-chemical-weapons-used-in-syria/>.

75. Raffi Khatchadourian, “The Case of Agent 15: Did Syria Use a Chemical Weapon?” The New Yorker (January 13, 2016), <http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-case-of-agent-15-did-syria-use-a-nerve-agent>.

76. Michael R. Gordon, “Consulate Supported Claim of Syria Gas Attack, Report Says,” New York Times, January 16, 2013.

77. Jeffrey White, Andrew J. Tabler, and Aaron Y. Zelin, “Syria's Military Opposition: How Effective, United or Extremist?” Policy Focus No. 128, September 2013, pp. 3-4.

78. Ibid., p. 4.

79. Ibid.

80. Yuta Kawashima, “Timeline of Syrian Chemical Weapons Activity, 2012-2015,” Arms Control Association, May 2015, <www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Timeline-of-Syrian-Chemical-Weapons-Activity>.

81. United Nations Mission to Investigate Allegations of the Use of Chemical Weapons in the Syrian Arab Republic, “Final Report,” December 13, 2013, <https://unoda-web.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/report.pdf>.

82. Ibid.

83. Ibid.

84. Ibid.

85. Ibid.

86. Ibid.

87. Liz Sly, “France says it is ‘certain’ that Syrian government has used sarin gas,” Washington Post, June 4, 2013, <www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/un-report-says-syria-atrocities-mount/2013/06/04/95ab5c46-cd2e-11e2-8573-3baeea6a2647_story.html>.

88. Ibid.

89. Ben Rhodes, “Statement by Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications Ben Rhodes on Syrian Chemical Weapons Use,” White House Office of the Press Secretary, June 13, 2013, <www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/06/13/statement-deputy-national-security-advisor-strategic-communications-ben->.

90. Ibid.

91. United Nations Mission, “Final Report.”

92. Ibid.

93. Ibid.

94. Ibid.

95. Ibid.

96. Human Rights Watch, “Attacks on Ghouta: Analysis of Alleged Use of Chemical Weapons in Syria,” September 10, 2013, <www.hrw.org/report/2013/09/10/attacks-ghouta/analysis-alleged-use-chemical-weapons-syria>.

97. The White House, “U.S. Government Assessment of the Syrian Government's Use of Chemical Weapons on August 21, 2013,” August 30, 2013, <www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/08/30/government-assessment-syrian-government-s-use-chemical-weapons-august-21>.

98. French Defense Ministry, “Syria/Syrian chemical programme—National executive summary of declassified intelligence,” September 2013, p. 5, <www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/IMG/pdf/Syrian_Chemical_Programme.pdf>.

99. The White House, “U.S. Government Assessment of the Syrian Government's Use of Chemical Weapons on August 21, 2013.”

100. French Defense Ministry, “Syria/Syrian chemical programme.”

101. Barbara Starr, “U.S. Source: Intercepts show Syrian military officials talked about chemical attack afterward,” CNN, August 29, 2013, <http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/08/29/u-s-source-intercepts-show-syrian-military-officials-talked-about-chemical-attack-afterward/>.

102. Ibid.

103. Ben Hubbard, Mark Mazzetti, and Mark Landler, “Blasts in the Night, a Smell, and a Flood of Syrian Victims,” New York Times, August 27, 2013.

104. Ben Hubbard, “Signs of Chemical Attack Detailed by Aid Group,” New York Times, August 25, 2013.

105. Ibid.

106. Peter Baker and Jonathan Weisman, “Slowing March to Military Action, Obama Seeks Syria Vote in Congress,” New York Times, September 1, 2013.

107. John Kerry, “Remarks with United Kingdom Foreign Secretary Hague,” US Department of State, September 9, 2013, <www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/09/213956.htm>.

108. Ibid.

109. Peter Baker and Michael R. Gordon, “An Unlikely Evolution, From Casual Proposal to Possible Resolution,” New York Times, September 10, 2013, <www.nytimes.com/2013/09/11/world/middleeast/Syria-An-Unlikely-Evolution.html>.

110. Kawashima, “Timeline of Syrian Chemical Weapons Activity, 2012-2015.”

111. Paul Richter and Sergei L. Loiko, “Assad makes new demands as Kerry, Lavrov meet on chemical weapons,” Los Angeles Times, September 12, 2013, <http://articles.latimes.com/2013/sep/12/world/la-fg-us-syria-20130913>.

112. Michael R. Gordon, “U.S. and Russia Reach Deal to Destroy Syria's Chemical Arms,” New York Times, September 14, 2013, <www.nytimes.com/2013/09/15/world/middleeast/syria-talks.html>.

113. Kawashima, “Timeline of Syrian Chemical Weapons Activity, 2012-2015.”

114. Ibid.

115. Lessenberry, “Intelligence Integration and the Syrian CW Threat.”

116. “Destroying Syria's Chemical Weapons.”

117. Kevin Baron, “Panetta: We’ve Lost Track of Some Syrian Chemical Weapons,” Foreign Policy, September 28, 2012, <http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/09/28/panetta-weve-lost-track-of-some-syrian-chemical-weapons/>.

118. Ibid.

119. Barack Obama, “Remarks by the President to the White House Press Corps,” White House Office of the Press Secretary, Washington DC, August 20, 2012, <www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/08/20/remarks-president-white-house-press-corps>.

120. “Destroying Syria's Chemical Weapons.”

121. Ibid. Precisely what “counter” refers to in this context remains unclear.

122. Ibid.

123. Ibid.

124. Ibid.

125. The Syria Chemical Weapons Senior Integration Group was established drawing on prior precedents, including the department's Warfighter Senior Integration Group, with which it should not be confused.

126. Lessenberry, “Intelligence Integration and the CW Syrian Threat;” “Destroying Syria's Chemical Weapons.”

127. “Destroying Syria's Chemical Weapons.”

128. Ibid.

129. Ibid.

130. Ibid.

131. Ibid.

132. For more on the technical solutions to WMD elimination challenges, see in this volume Christine Parthemore, “Technology in Context: Lessons from the Elimination of Weapons of Mass Destruction,” pp. 83–99.

133. Lessenberry, “Intelligence Integration and the Syrian CW Threat;” “Destroying Syria's Chemical Weapons.”

134. Ibid.

135. Ernesto Londoño, “U.S. military team in Jordan planning ways to deal with Syria's chemical weapons,” Washington Post, June 18, 2013, <www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-military-team-in-jordan-planning-ways-to-deal-with-syrias-chemical-weapons/2013/06/18/f295e5ae-d4fc-11e2-b05f-3ea3f0e7bb5a_story.html>.

136. David E. Sanger and Eric Schmitt, “Pentagon Says 75,000 Troops Might Be Needed to Seize Syria Chemical Arms,” New York Times, November 15, 2012, <www.nytimes.com/2012/11/16/world/middleeast/pentagon-sees-seizing-syria-chemical-arms-as-vast-task.html?_r=0>.

137. Ibid.

138. Londoño, “U.S. military team in Jordan planning ways to deal with Syria's chemical weapons.”

139. “Destroying Syria's Chemical Weapons.”

140. Lessenberry, “Intelligence Integration and the Syrian CW Threat;” “Destroying Syria's Chemical Weapons.”

141. Rick Gladstone, “Russia Says Study Suggests Syria Rebels Used Sarin,” New York Times, July 9, 2013, <www.nytimes.com/2013/07/10/world/middleeast/russia-says-study-suggests-syria-rebels-used-sarin.html>; Vladimir V. Putin, “A Plea for Caution from Russia,” New York Times, September 11, 2013, <www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html>.

142. The US-Russian framework agreement concluded in September 2013 that paved the way for the Syrian CW elimination explicitly noted, “The two parties agree to utilize the ‘universal matrix,’ developed in the course of consultations by our two National Security Councils, as the basis for an actionable plan.” “Framework for the Elimination of Syrian Chemical Weapons,” September 14, 2013, <http://m.state.gov/md214247.htm>.

143. Cheryl Rofer, “The Persistence of Memes,” Nuclear Diner, February 23, 2016, <https://nucleardiner.wordpress.com/2016/02/23/the-persistence-of-memes/>

144. “Destroying Syria's Chemical Weapons.”

145. Ibid.

146. Pamela Falk, “Crisis diplomacy 101: the Kerry-Lavrov Syria meeting,” CBS News, September 12, 2013, <www.cbsnews.com/news/crisis-diplomacy-101-the-kerry-lavrov-syria-meeting/>.

147. Angelique Chrisafis and Julian Borger, “Syria conflict: France to seek tough UN resolution on chemical weapons,” Guardian, September 10, 2013, <www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/10/syria-conflict-france-un-resolution-chemical>. For more on the implications of Security Council actions under Chapter VII, see also in this volume, Robert A. Friedman, “Legal Aspects of Weapons of Mass Destruction Elimination Contingencies,” pp. 61–82.

148. Simon Limage, “Remarks by the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Nonproliferation Programs, Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation at the 2014 Jonathan Tucker Conference on Chemical and Biological Arms Control,” Washington DC, December 12, 2014, <www.armscontrol.org/events/2014-12-12/The-2014-Jonathan-Tucker-Conference-on-Chemical-and-Biological-Arms-Control#Panel2>.

149. John Kerry, “Remarks With Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov,” US Department of State, September 12, 2013, <www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/09/214156.htm>; Barack Obama, “Remarks by President Obama and Amir Sabah Al-Sabah of Kuwait After Bilateral Meeting,” White House Office of the Press Secretary, Washington, DC, September 13, 2013, <www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/09/13/remarks-president-obama-and-amir-sabah-al-sabah-kuwait-after-bilateral-m>.

150. Karen DeYoung, “How the United States, Russia arrived at deal on Syria's chemical weapons,” Washington Post, September 16, 2013, <www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/how-the-united-states-russia-arrived-at-deal-on-syrias-chemical-weapons/2013/09/15/c851cd1e-1e5b-11e3-8459-657e0c72fec8_story.html>.

151. Peter Baker and Michael R. Gordon, “U.S.-Russia Talks on Syria's Arms Make Progress,” New York Times, September 13, 2013, <www.nytimes.com/2013/09/14/world/middleeast/us-wont-insist-un-resolution-threaten-force-on-syria-officials-say.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1>.

152. Angelique Chrisafis and Julian Borger, “Syria conflict: France to Seek Tough UN Resolution on Chemical Weapons,” Guardian, September 10, 2013, <http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/10/syria-conflict-france-un-resolution-chemical>.

153. Karen DeYoung, “How the United States, Russia arrived at deal on Syria's chemical weapons.”

154. Ibid.

155. Ibid.

156. Ibid.

157. Ibid.

158. Ibid.

159. Office of the Spokesperson, “Framework for Elimination of Syrian Chemical Weapons,” Department of State, September 14, 2013, <www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/09/214247.htm>.

160. UN Mission to Investigate Allegations of the Use of Chemical Weapons in the Syrian Arab Republic, “Report on Allegations of the Use of Chemical Weapons in the Ghouta Area of Damascus on 21 August 2013,” September 13, 2013, <www.un.org/disarmament/content/slideshow/Secretary_General_Report_of_CW_Investigation.pdf>.

161. UN Security Council, “Press Release: Security Council Requires Scheduled Destruction of Syria's Chemical Weapons, Unanimously Adopting Resolution 2118,” September 27, 2013, <www.un.org/press/en/2013/sc11135.doc.htm>.

162. Ibid.

163. Jean-Pascal Zanders, “Syria's CW disarmament: spill-over effects for Middle East,” The Trench, March 13, 2015, <www.the-trench.org/me-spill-over-effects/>.

164. Ibid. For more on the legal contours of the Syrian CW disarmament, see, in this volume, Robert A. Friedman, “Legal Aspects of Weapons of Mass Destruction Elimination Contingencies,” pp. 61–82.

165. Paul F. Walker, “Syrian Chemical Weapons Destruction: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead,” Arms Control Today, December 14, 2014, <www.armscontrol.org/ACT/2014_12/Features/Syrian-Chemical-Weapons-Destruction-Taking-Stock-And-Looking-Ahead>.

166. Amy E. Smithson. “How to Dismantle a Chemical Bomb: Lessons for the United Nations in Syria,” Foreign Affairs, September 18, 2013, <www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/syria/2013-09-18/how-dismantle-chemical-bomb>.

167. Office of the Spokesperson, Department of State, “Framework for Elimination of Syrian Chemical Weapons,” September 14, 2013, <www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/09/214247.htm>.

168. Nina Notman, “Eliminating Syria's chemical weapons,” Chemistry World, May 21, 2014, <www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/2014/05/syrian-chemical-weapons-feature>.

169. Walker, “Syrian Chemical Weapons Destruction: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead.”

170. OPCW, Note by the Director General, “Progress in the Elimination of the Syrian Chemical Weapons Programme,” EC-80/DG.4, August 24, 2015, <www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW/EC/80/en/ec80dg04_e_.pdf>.

171. Walker, “Syrian Chemical Weapons Destruction: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead.”

172. Ibid.

173. Valeria Criscione, “Why Norway won’t destroy Syria's chemical weapons,” Christian Science Monitor, October 25, 2013, <www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2013/1025/Why-Norway-won-t-destroy-Syria-s-chemical-weapons>.

174. Ibid.

175. Ibid.

176. David Blair and David Hopkins, “Belgium becomes fourth country to refuse to destroy Syria's chemical arsenal,” Telegraph, November 18, 2013, <www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10458469/Belgium-becomes-fourth-country-to-refuse-to-destroy-Syrias-chemical-arsenal.html>.

177. Associated Press, “Albania rejects US request to host disposal of Syria's chemical weapons,” Guardian, November 15, 2013, <www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/15/albania-rejects-request-disposal-syrian-chemical-weapons>.

178. David Blair, “Albania joins list of countries to reject Syria's chemical weapons stockpile,” November 18, 2013, <www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10457684/Albania-joins-list-of-countries-to-reject-Syrias-chemical-weapons-stockpile.html>.

179. Mark Urban, “Syrian chemical weapons set to be destroyed at sea,” BBC, November 28, 2013, <www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-25146980>.

180. Walker, “Syrian Chemical Weapons Destruction: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead.”

181. Ibid.

182. Defense.gov, “MV Cape Ray FDHS,” July 8, 2014, <http://archive.defense.gov/home/features/video/player.aspx?Q9m8mMxwCxI>.

183. Ibid.

184. Ibid.

185. Defense.gov, “Cape Ray Field Deployable Hydrolysis System Operations,” 2014, <http://archive.defense.gov/home/features/2014/0114_caperay/pdfs/JPME_CapeRay_FDHS_011014_1630.pdf>.

186. Defense.gov, “Cape Ray Field Deployable Hydrolysis System Virtual Tour,” July 2, 2014, <http://archive.defense.gov/home/features/video/player.aspx?lejtV4_4iwY>.

187. Defense.gov, “MV Cape Ray Laboratory Tour,” July 8, 2014, <http://archive.defense.gov/home/features/video/player.aspx?1_3IoO6SGZ0>.

188. Defense.gov, “MV Cape Ray Disposal Practice,” July 8, 2014, <http://archive.defense.gov/home/features/video/player.aspx?QSlmh4Fsv4E>.

189. Jon Harper, “MV Cape Ray on its way to neutralize Syria's chemical weapons,” Stars and Stripes, January 27, 2014, <www.stripes.com/news/us/mv-cape-ray-on-its-way-to-neutralize-syria-s-chemical-weapons-1.264339>.

190. Lizzy Davies, “Italian mayor dismayed as port chosen for Syrian chemical weapons transfer,” Guardian, January 16, 2014, <www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/16/italian-mayor-port-gioia-tauro-syrian-chemical-weapons>.

191. Notman, “Eliminating Syria's chemical weapons.”

192. OPCW, “Frequently Asked Questions: How the chemical components of Syria's chemical warfare stockpile are being destroyed,” <www.opcw.org/special-sections/syria/frequently-asked-questions/>.

193. Ibid; Notman, “Eliminating Syria's chemical weapons.”

194. Ibid.

195. Ibid.

196. Walker, “Syrian Chemical Weapons Destruction: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead.”

197. Ibid.

198. Notman, “Eliminating Syria's chemical weapons.”

199. Ibid.

200. Ibid.

201. Walker, “Syrian Chemical Weapons Destruction: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead.”

202. Jean-Pascal Zanders, “Sea-based destruction of Syria's CW proposed,” The Trench, December 5, 2013, <www.the-trench.org/sea-based-destruction-of-syrias-cw-proposed/>.

203. Walker, “Syrian Chemical Weapons Destruction: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead.”

204. Notman, “Eliminating Syria's chemical weapons.”

205. Ibid.

206. OPCW, “Press release: Update on Syrian Chemical Weapons Destruction and the Fact-Finding Mission into Alleged Chlorine Gas Attacks,” May 22, 2014, <www.opcw.org/news/article/update-on-syrian-chemical-weapons-destruction-and-the-fact-finding-mission-into-alleged-chlorine-gas/>.

207. OPCW, “Announcement to media on last consignment of chemicals leaving Syria,” June 23, 2014, <www.opcw.org/news/article/announcement-to-media-on-last-consignment-of-chemicals-leaving-syria/>.

208. Defense.gov, “Transfer of Syrian Chemicals to Cape Ray is Complete,” DoD News, July 3, 2014, <http://archive.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=122620>.

209. Jim Garamone, “Cape Ray Begins Neutralizing Syrian Chemical Materials,” DoD News, July 7, 2014, <http://archive.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=122620>.

210. Terri Moon Cronk, “Cape Ray Continues Neutralizing Syrian Chemical Materials,” DoD News, July 18, 2014, <http://archive.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=122708>.

211. Cheryl Pellerin, “75 Percent of Syria Chemical Materials Reported Destroyed,” DoD News, August 11, 2014, <http://archive.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=122898>.

212. Walker, “Syrian Chemical Weapons Destruction: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead.”

213. Ibid.

214. OPCW, “Disposal of effluents from neutralised Syrian chemical weapons completed,” June 17, 2015, <www.opcw.org/news/article/disposal-of-effluents-from-neutralised-syrian-chemical-weapons-completed/>.

215. OPCW, Note by the Director General, “Progress in the Elimination of the Syrian Chemical Weapons Programme,” EC-82/DG.5, April 22, 2016, <www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW/EC/82/en/ec82dg05_e_.pdf >.

216. Sigrid Kaag, “Sigrid Kaag (Joint OPCW-UN Mission) on Syria - Press Conference (4 September 2014),” UN Web TV, September 4, 2014, <http://webtv.un.org/watch/sigrid-kaag-joint-opcw-un-mission-on-syria-press-conference-4-september-2014/3767596756001>.

217. Dominic Evans and Anthony Deutsch, “Syria submits more 'detailed' list of chemical weapons,” Reuters, April 17, 2014, <www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-chemicalweapons-idUSBREA3G1C920140417>.

218. Kaag, “Sigrid Kaag (Joint OPCW-UN Mission) on Syria - Press Conference (4 September 2014).”

219. Anthony Deutsch, “Syria reveals more chemical weapons facilities to watchdog – sources,” Reuters, September 17, 2014, <www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-chemicalweapons-exclusiv-idUSKBN0HC1GA20140917>.

220. Samantha Power, “Statement by Ambassador Samantha Power, U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations, on the Removal of Chemical Weapons Materials from Syria,” New York, June 23, 2014, <http://usun.state.gov/remarks/6093>.

221. Anthony Deutsch, “UN inspectors find undeclared sarin-linked chemicals at Syrian military site,” Telegraph, May 9, 2015, <www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11594763/UN-inspectors-find-undeclared-sarin-linked-chemicals-at-Syrian-military-site.html>.

222. Ibid.

223. Oliver Holmes, “Syria video shows chlorine gas floating in streets: activists,” Reuters, May 23, 2015, <www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-chlorine-idUSBREA4M08V20140523>.

224. Ibid.

225. Ibid.

226. OPCW, “OPCW Fact Finding Mission: ‘Compelling Confirmation’ That Chlorine Gas Used as Weapon in Syria,” September 10, 2014, <www.opcw.org/news/article/opcw-fact-finding-mission-compelling-confirmation-that-chlorine-gas-used-as-weapon-in-syria/>.

227. UN Security Council, “Adopting Resolution 2209 (2015), Security Council Condemns Use of Chlorine Gas as Weapon in Syria,” March 6, 2015, <www.un.org/press/en/2015/sc11810.doc.htm>.

228. Jett Goldsmith, “Chemical Crisis: A Timeline of CW Attacks in Syria's Civil War,” Bellingcat, April 27, 2015, <www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2015/04/27/chemical-crisis-a-timeline-of-cw-attacks-in-syrias-civil-war/>.

229. Thomas Gibbons-Neff, “House witnesses describe use of chlorine gas in barrel bombs by Assad regime in Syria,” Washington Post, June 17, 2015, <www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/06/17/house-witnesses-describe-use-of-chlorine-gas-in-barrel-bombs-by-assad-regime-in-syria/>.

230. Alice Ross and Shiv Malik, “Syrian doctors to show the US evidence of Assad's use of chemical weapons,” Guardian, June 16, 2015, <www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/16/syria-assad-regime-is-weaponising-chlorine-us-congress-to-hear>.

231. Ibid.

232. Ian Pannell, “Syria civilians still under chemical attack,” BBC, September 10, 2015, <www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34212324>.

233. Ibid.

234. Associated Press, “German intelligence confirms ISIS used mustard gas in Iraq, says news report,” Guardian, September 7, 2015, <www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/08/german-intelligence-confirms-isis-used-mustard-gas-in-iraq-says-news-report>.

235. Andrew Tilghman, “U.S. confirms Islamic State use of chemical weapons,” Military Times, August 21, 2015, <www.militarytimes.com/story/military/2015/08/21/isis-used-mustard-gas-makhmour-against-kurds/32116637/>; Debora MacKenzie, “ISIS could be using decades-old mustard gas in Syria,” New Scientist, September 15, 2015, accessed March 5, 2016, <www.newscientist.com/article/dn28174-isis-could-be-using-decades-old-mustard-gas-in-syria/>.

236. Ibid.

237. OPCW, “Further Reports Of The OPCW Fact-Finding Mission In Syria,” Decision, November 23, 2015, accessed April 17, 2016, <www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW/EC/M-50/en/ecm50dec01_e_.pdf>.

238. James Q. Wilson, Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and Why They Do It (Basic Books, 1991).

239. Andy Weber and Christine L. Parthemore, “Innovation in Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction,” Arms Control Today (July/August 2015), <www.armscontrol.org/ACT/2015_0708/Features/Innovation-in-Countering-Weapons-of-Mass-Destruction>.

240. Richard Danzig, “Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About Prediction and National Security,” Center for a New American Security (October 2011) <www.cnas.org/sites/default/files/publications-pdf/CNAS_Prediction_Danzig.pdf>.

241. Interagency briefing hosted by Office of Threat Reduction and Arms Control, Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Defense Programs, Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Department of Defense, March 15, 2016.

242. Ibid.

243. “Destroying Syria's Chemical Weapons.”