Managing China's spent nuclear fuel: a model framework for interim storage

ABSTRACT

China, as the world leader in constructing new nuclear reactors, has yet to resolve either its short-term spent nuclear fuel (SNF) problems or the challenge of long-term final disposition. While it may be several decades before the fuel disposition question will be resolved, the near-term problem of establishing adequate interim SNF storage is much more acute. The state of nuclear-reactor development in China presents an opportunity to address SNF management issues at an early stage. This article outlines a scenario-based study aiming to inform SNF interim storage policy even while the final disposition solution remains uncertain. We describe a comprehensive model and show results from a crucial subset of issues—the logistics of SNF accumulation, transportation, and storage—and describe simple steps to strengthen the SNF storage system. Finally, we forecast when the current method of SNF disposition could break down and offer recommendations and guidance for further study.

KEYWORDS:

• China
• nuclear power
• nuclear reactors
• nuclear fuel cycle
• spent nuclear fuel

Notes

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2 David Wright and Lisbeth Gronlund, “Estimating China's Production of Plutonium for Weapons,” Science and Global Security, Vol. 11 (2003), pp. 61–80; Matthew Bunn, Hui Zhang, and Li Kang, “The Cost of Reprocessing in China,” report, Harvard Kennedy School, Belfer Center, Boston MA, January 2016.

3 US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, “International Energy Statistics,” August 19, 2017, <www.eia.gov/beta/international/>.

4 Chaim Braun, “China's Nuclear Energy Program—Development and Prospects,” Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) Science Seminar, Stanford, CA, January 13, 2014.

5 BP, “BP Energy Outlook—Outlook to 2035,” London, 2016.

6 Ibid.

7 US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, “International Energy Outlook,” Washington, DC, 2013.

8 Ibid.

9 World Health Organization Western Pacific Region, “World Health Organization: 7 Million Deaths in 2012 Due to Air Pollution,” March 25, 2014, <www.wpro.who.int/china/mediacentre/releases/2014/20140325/en/>.

10 Keith Crane and Zhimin Mao, “Costs of Selected Policies to Address Air Pollution in China,” RAND, 2015, <www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR800/RR861/RAND_RR861.pdf>.

11 PRIS, “China, People's Republic of.”

12 World Nuclear News, “China to Develop Coastal Nuclear Power Plants,” World Nuclear Association, December 8, 2014, <www.world-nuclear-news.org/NP-China-to-develop-coastal-nuclear-power-plants-0812144.html>.

13 World Nuclear News, “China Plans for Nuclear Growth,” World Nuclear Association, November 20, 2014, <www.world-nuclear-news.org/NP-China-plans-for-nuclear-growth-2011144.html>.

14 World Nuclear Association, “US Operating Nuclear Reactors,” <www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/appendices/nuclear-power-in-the-usa-appendix-1-us-operating-n.aspx>.

15 A note on the authors’ use of different measurements of output: power reactors are normally measured by what they put on the grid, measured in MWe, whereas experimental reactors are normally measured by the heat they produce, in MWth, since the conversion to electricity is not necessarily relevant.

16 Liu Xuegang, “China's Nuclear Energy Development and Spent Fuel Management Plans,” NAPSNet Special Reports, October 16, 2012, <http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/chinas-nuclear-energy-development-and-spent-fuel-management-plans/>.

17 Matthew Bunn, Hui Zhang, and Li Kang, The Cost of Reprocessing in China (Cambridge, MA: Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, 2016).

18 Hui Zhang, “Chinese Reprocessing and Nuclear Security Issues,” presentation, Institute for Nuclear Materials Management 55th Annual Meeting, Atlanta, July 24, 2014.

19 David Stanway, “Areva Says Decision on China Nuclear Reprocessing Plant Expected Soon,” Reuters, May 18, 2017.

20 Rosalind Reischer, “Protests Threaten China's Nuclear Energy Plans,” Global Risk Insights, August 26, 2016, <http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/08/nimbyism-threatens-china-nuclear-plans/>.

21 Mujid Kazimi, Ernest J. Moniz, and Charles W. Forsberg, co-chairs, “The Future of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle—an Interdisciplinary MIT Study,” Massachusetts Institute of Technology, April 26, 2011, <https://energy.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/MITEI-The-Future-of-the-Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle.pdf>.

22 Robert Alvarez, Jan Beyea, Klaus Janberg, Jungmin Kang, Ed Lyman, Allison Macfarlane, Gordon Thompson, and Frank N. von Hippel, “Reducing the Hazards from Stored Spent Power-Reactor Fuel in the United States,” Science and Global Security, Vol. 11 (2003), pp. 1–51.

23 Andrew Barto, Consequence Study of a Beyond-Design-Basis Earthquake Affecting the Spent Fuel Pool for a U.S. Mark I Boiling Water Reactor (Washington, DC: United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, 2014).

24 Spent fuel expert at CGN, personal communication with author, Xiamen, China, December 2013.

25 Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People's Republic of China, 2003, <www.zhb.gov.cn/info/gw/haqwj/200308/t20030815_89448.htm>.

26 Spent fuel expert at CGN, personal communication.

27 Matthew Bunn, Hui Zhang, and Li Kang, “The Cost of Reprocessing in China,” Project on Managing the Atom, January 2016.

28 Xuegang Liu, “China's Nuclear Energy Development and Spent Fuel Management,” INET, Tsinghua University, Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability Project Meeting, Beijing, May 2013.

29 The status quo is considered LWR reactor buildup at the stated rate without additional fast-reactor technologies.

30 Wood Mackenzie, “China to Fall Short of 2030 Nuclear Power Targets,” April 27, 2014, <http://public.woodmac.com/public/media-centre/content/12058383>.

31 Nuclear Engineering International, “Spanish Used Fuel Casks Arrive in China,” June 6, 2017.

Additional information

Funding

This work was was completed at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation, and was sponsored in part by the MacArthur Foundation.